Seasonal Sakamichi Polls: Popularity Tournament - the Sakamichi Cup now running

Sakamichi Survey Winter 2019 (link)

Hi, welcome to the seasonal Sakamichi Series popularity polls. I release polls periodically, mainly about member popularity but I like asking other questions too so if you have any ideas please let me know. Check the above link for the current poll, or below for the results of previous polls.

Ideas
I'm actively searching for topics for polls for both primary questions and bonus questions. At any time please tell me your ideas for new questions and which topics/questions you found most interesting and want to see asked again.
In particular I'm always looking for ideas for themed senbatsu (i.e. vocal senbatsu, model senbatsu, variety senbatsu, etc.)

Please post any and all questions and ideas you have about the post to this thread.

Results and Analysis for previous polls

I'm also available for discussion/more frequent updates on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/doiyasansubs

 

MAJOR EDIT: First poll results moved here to clean up the OP

Spoiler: First poll results

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1St-0ZXyYBovMoc2hRFGRj4bwLn6udoL5k0NOZwcja2E/viewanalytics

Popularity
For popularity, when fans could choose as many members as they liked
Ikuta Erika (57.6) and Watanabe Rika (38.9) were the most popular members in their groups
With Nanase, Miona and Maiyan trailing behind in the 40%s for Nogizaka and
Zumin standing out at 33.6% and Neru, Yurina, Manaka also maintaining notable shares, around 25% each.

The least popular members of Nogizaka were Karin, Chiharu, Hinachima, though that might change after we've heard them sing!
Keyaki's least popular was front member Suzumoto Miyu, perhaps the result of negative rumours which are thankfully still yet to be proven. Harada Aoi stands second last for general popularity, though she did fairly well in the oshimen ranking.

Ikuchan remained on top for the oshimen ranking, but was trailed closely by Nanase (17.1% and 15.1%) leaving all other members in the dust (Maiyan at 3rd with 7.4%)
Berika also remained on top of Keyakizaka with a more comfortable margin. She took 17.1% of the vote, far ahead of Zumin (11.4%) with the others even further off (Manaka with 9.2%)

Centreship in 2016
An overwhelming majority of the votes this round went to Ikuta Erika (48.3%), beating out Maiyan and Nanase's very high scores of 28% (2nd) and 24.7% (4th). Miona has earned her way back to the position with 26%, scoring 3rd. Other popular candidates are Nanamin (20.7% 5th), and Maimai, (granted the wishes of 19.3% of respondents, though not under the happiest of circumstances). Reika, Ashu, Misa, Ikoma, Wakatsuki, Minami, and Kazumin, the remaining Fukujin, all got respectable scores of 10%+

Keyakizaka's responses got pretty close to the mark with 32.9% for Berika, 24.6% for Zumin, and 22.4% for Yurina. Neru fans got her to 14.5% for 4th but were disappointed she didn't even make senbatsu. Manaka and Kobayui got 5th and 6th place earning their forward positions.

Sales predictions
For Nogizaka I only asked about their sales record by the end of the year.
The responses were split 50-50 between above or below 850k
with only 12% believing they won't go above 750k
and 22% believing Nogizaka will reach 1 million this year. Perhaps they planned on Keyaki's inclusion in Handshakes? Ah well, it's nice to be ambitious.

For Keyaki's sales, respondents were asked what they think the first single will sell
Roughly 45% believed the sales would be below 200k
Of the 55% who thought it would be above 200k, half of them believe it would go over 250k. Very few believed it would reach over 350k (6.3%) though it seems possible now. We've only 2 weeks before we know.


Positions on Nogi vs Keyaki, 46 v 48
63% of responses were from mostly 46
18% neutral
and 19% 48-leaning
With 24% exclusive 46 and
5% exclusive 48 but responded anyway for some reason

More steep for Keyaki (who just started)
46% were Nogi only
37.5% mostly Nogi
10% neutral
5% mostly Keyaki
and 2% Keyaki only

Majority of fans were very against 46/48 kennins
49% staunchly against it, with only 13% very much for it

Fans were no more favourable for inner-Sakamichi kennins but a bit less strongly against it with only 39.5% staunchly against the idea, and moderate increases in the "neutral", and "slightly in favour" options.

Bonus:
Below are the 14th single senbatsu and unders formations, had they been determined by responses to the poll last winter (Rarin would have been second place (i.e. stage-left of center) if she didn't graduate.)

View attachment 68885 View attachment 68886

 

@infinitehippos
I tried to remove my own biases. I worried a little that some jokes in the choices might be taken to mean I'm taking sides but so far responses have been good.

@NyanNyan's Pet
Yeah, I was surprised how close it was.

I also did one for Keyakizaka. With all 21 members. Obviously it's going to be close to the real senbatsu as pretty much everyone is in that one too.

 

Keyakitte, Kakenai is my current favourite idol show (it would be Nogidoko, but Nogichuu can be very hit and miss) you should try it out

 

Very surprised to see Marikka in first place in every category. Let's she if she can maintain with 10 days to go.