Event / Concert AKB48 45th Single Senbatsu Sousenkyo (16/6/18)

about sasshi, as long as she's still the queen of AKB, she will not grad lol

Spoiler

 

She might change her mind if Mio reaches top 16.

 

I just hope sayane get her solo debut before leave the group
And for mirurun, yes

i'm really hope nmb cam center all of that, well is impossible ,at least I can dreaming about it

 

Aki-P and the management might be pointing a gun onto Sasshi's head in order for her not to graduate yet xD why wouldn't they? the "queen" is so far. the biggest draw in SSK history.

tbh, I don't think any current NMB member can takeover Sayanee's place right off the bat. but, I guess with the right amount of push and promotion. who know's? SayaMilky pair would reach legendary status after their graduation. though, Sayanee don't graduate yet.

all this talk and yet Kojiharu is still in AKB

 

Is that really important ? bc i think no matter how many kami-member graduated, ssk single will still sold more than a million. nothings gonna change, its in 2014 when they lost mariko, yuko, itano.. and it didnt give much change to ssk sales. so yeah, i think even if they lost sashi + mayuki + sayanee at the same time.. its not gonna bother them to the level like they'll begging or kneeling down over their presences. of course i admit they contributes quite amount of sales to ssk, but rlly.. it doesnt matter anymore wheter they're in there or not. the next queen will be born and replace them and morover will surpass them.

And.. they create NGT for some reason y'know.. maybe they'll create another group to keep this ssk gig afloat.

 

imo, this time would be different. when Acchan, Yuko, Mariko and Tomochin left. there's still a lot of top members in the 48G namely Takamina, Yukirin, Mayuyu, Sasshi, Sae and the sister group centers. but now, management didn't have enough time to create top members to replace them. say next year they don't participate in the SSK? the voting single would take a hit.

 

Just like SKE lost a huge chunk of votes when Rena opted out, right? Remember, last year 80th place had 13k votes! That's more than the top three, almost more than the top 4 in the first SSK. And the slope at that point was extremely shallow, so who knows how many votes there were in the unranked tail. The situation is not so dire, and I think the top members sitting out would do a great deal to revitalise interest in SSK, and more importantly to put AKB on the path to renewal.

Of course if even one of the top 4 or so decides to stay in then it's going to be rather meh.

Because Miru isn't Sayanee. She also seems to be much more of a fisher (if of a different sort) than for example Shuu or Nagisa (on Team BII).

 

I think it would be cool or interesting when they would reveale #81 name and votes Did they something like this before?

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Just curious, So what is the top/kami members defined then?
by SSK rank?
by amount of individual works?
agency? or HS result?

Unfortunately not yet.

 

Kami7 by SSK and top members by fans and mg

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I'm not against a new batch of the so-called "kami-7" in the SSK. I'm just saying if those members don't participate next year. the Voting Single cd sales might take a hit. it's not like there's a big jump in their sales lately. what if you exclude the top 3 SSK rank members all at once? that's a lot imo. but there's no doubt that the SSK would be more unpredictable and more exciting. yup, I'm stoked for Tomu, Naachan and Kojimako in the senbatsu line-up.

btw. it's the top 1 and top 2 rank who are setting the record of votes to beat. if the record to beat is much lower. then, I think the fans would put less effort in voting. that's just my opinion.

 

Kimi wa Melody sold very well for a spring single, probably because wota didn't spend as much money on KnBMB.

They might have to take a small hit for one SSK to build up narrative for the years after, but I think that's better than the alternative, especially in regard to everything besides SSK. I also think it's more likely sales will rise instead, since the results are much less certain (most votes will probably go to other girls rather than just disappearing, but to whom?) and there's thus more incentive for the average fan to vote.

There's also an obvious difference better athletes and more popular athletes. The original sports analogy was kind of vaguely comparable to SSK and 48G, your counter analogies not so much.



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... Now why did I come back to this thread again? ... Oh, right.

The members included in the SSK Guidebook have been revealed on Amazon (and presumably other sites):
Part 1 (Special Interest Members):
AKB48: Watanabe Mayu, Kashiwagi Yuki, Yokoyama Yui, Shimazaki Haruka, Mukaichi Mion, Kizaki Yuria, Kato Rena, Iriyama Anna, Okada Nana, Miyazaki Miho, Muto Tomu, Minegishi Minami
SKE48: Matsui Jurina, Suda Akari
NMB48: Yamamoto Sayaka, Shiroma Miru
HKT48: Sashihara Rino, Miyawaki Sakura, Kodama Haruka
NGT48: Kitahara Rie

Part 2:
AKB48: Sasaki Yukari, Mogi Shinobu, Shinozaki Ayana, Oya Shizuka, Shimada Haruka
SKE48: Takayanagi Akane, Oba Mina, Futamura Haruka, Miyamae Ami, Sato Sumire, Yamauchi Suzuran, Saito Makiko, Takeuchi Mai
NMB48: Fujie Reina, Ichikawa Miori
HKT48: Sakaguchi Riho, Ueki Nao, Tanaka Natsumi

Part 3 (Next Gen Members):
AKB48: Takahashi Juri, Kojima Mako, Tano Yuka, Omori Miyu, Owada Nana, Komiyama Haruka, Oshima Ryoka, Nishino Miki
SKE48: Tani Marika, Furuhata Nao, Kimoto Kanon, Goto Risako, Soda Sarina, Azuma Rion, Kitagawa Ryoha, Kamata Natsuki, Kumazaki Haruka, Ego Yuna
NMB48: Yagura Fuuko, Shibuya Nagisa, Kato Yuuka, Yabushita Shu, Yoshida Akari, Murase Sae
HKT48: Tomonaga Mio, Fuchigami Mai, Tashima Meru, Moriyasu Madoka, Kojina Yui, Matsuoka Natsumi, Motomura Aoi

Part 4 (New Comers):
AKB48: Hiwatashi Yui, Taniguchi Megu, Kawamoto Saya, Yamada Nanami, Nakano Ikumi, Sakaguchi Nagisa, Kuranoo Narumi, Oguri Yui
SKE48: Goto Rara, Obata Yuna, Sugawara Mayu, Takeuchi Saki
NMB48: Sutou Ririka, Ota Yuuri, Kawakami Chihiro, Uemura Azusa, Naiki Kokoro
HKT48: Matsuoka Hana, Yabuki Nako, Tanaka Miku, Yamashita Emiri, Tanaka Yuka, Tomiyoshi Asuka
NGT48: Kato Minami, Takakura Moeka, Nakai Rika, Ogino Yuka, Nishigata Marina, Yamaguchi Maho, Honma Hinata, Tano Yuuka

???:
NyanNyanKamen



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Part 2 seems like a grab bag of ranked members who aren't either Next Gen or Special Interest, or at least that's what I would think if it weren't for the first 3 AKB members, who are all very much Next Gen.

 

I don't think it'll make that much of a difference. Top members have graduated before and it didn't do that big of a difference. At most maybe for one year the sale of the summer single will be down a little, but by the next year it will be fine again.

 

I actually don't think so... Just imagine if the top 3 (+ Sayanee) graduate before next year's elections, the members who are most likely to rank #1 are Jurina and Sakura (I guess). It can't be either of them, so it's basically a new rivalry, with young & successful members. I'm pretty sure Jurina & Sakura fans will want to get that chance to win #1. and they would definitely not want to lose against the other one, so their vote count might rise. Whoever wins, the other side will want a "revenge", so the year after that, the votes will increase again. and so on. They just need a new interesting rivalry between popular girls and Jurina/Sakura would most likely work.

Besides the vote count won't go down so easily. Management keep adding new ways of voting other than CD... just this year there's like 11 ways for a fan to vote (CD vote + 10 other ways). and I'm not sure, but I read about the mobile vote being 10 instead of 3? Basically they're doing everything so the vote count stays high and gives an illusion of "higher interest than ever" when it's not the case. if the ways to vote stayed the same from 1st elections until now, we would probably have seen a decrease already, but management won't let that happen, they'll just add (more) easy/cheap ways to vote.

 

Well, they might lose CD sales, but the SSK single already sells so ridiculously much... plus if they actually produced a decent song people would keep buying it after the event (like they did with BwT).

And interestingly, almost all of those new ways are only viable for people living in Japan, whereas CDs can be easily (if not exactly cheaply) obtained by international fans... Also most of them are pretty limited per person (opening up new mobile phone lines to get more mobile votes is probably more expensive than just buying CDs, lol). Perhaps the intent of all these extra ways to vote is to make Sousenkyo slightly more representative of the average Japanese wota, and take it out of the hands of big spenders and e.g. Chinese and Korean fan groups?

I'm not sure where the number 10 comes from (though I've seen it myself), but there are 5 different mobile services you can subscribe to, and each of them gives a vote.

 

I don't think the next year non-participation will have that bad of an effect. By next sousenkyo when Mayu and Sayaka are out I think the really promising girls like Mion, Sakura, Naachan, etc will keep getting more relevant since they already have the hardcore fanbase and they're just going full force with making them mainstream.

If I'm honest, I really like this strategy being used now of the fans picking a push and management going with it (like those three names above). I think it leads to a better result than the "sacred cow" route.

About fans putting less effort in, no wayy. If anything, the fans of members who normally wouldn't have much of a chance will be more motivated to get senbatsu/UG/ or rank-in.

Now that's interesting to me. Not that the Chinese voting block won't still have a big impact, but I remember all the noise about Chinese votes when Mayu won

 

Yes, very nice. but i think you quoting wrong post. thats the whole main point of my post tbh.

 

Better athletes sitting out doesn't improve the talents of those still in the game. But more popular athletes sitting out?

Popularity is a very different thing from talent and skill, and as such popularity competitions behave according to different rules from talent competitions. The originally analogy was very weak, which is the only reason it worked. Your stronger analogies broke any connection the two things have to each other.

 

The AKB elections are made to determine the most popular member between current members of the group, even if the "top 3" graduates and someone else wins, it doesn't mean it's "less worthy". She would be the most popular current member, voted by fans, it has the same worth as any other win...

Now for public interest, it might change if the top members leave... But that's expected. Still, maybe once Sakura/Jurina or anyone else finally wins, they might get more attention from the public. They might get huge after that. It's basically impossible for AKB to always keep the same level of popularity, & older gens need to leave sooner or later... The younger girls need to get a chance to lead AKB, maybe AKB won't be as popular as before (just like they aren't as popular right now as they used to be in 2011) but they'll do well eventually and (maybe) reach a second peak (the first one was 2010-2012).

 

Im really curious about Sakura in this SSK,will she keep climbing the ladder and get a higher place or she will have a fall like Paruru last year?