2015 Senbatsu Election Predictions/Hopes/Dreams & Etc

Here is my prediction!

1. Yamamoto Sayaka
2. Sashihara Rino
3. Watanabe Mayu
4. Matsui Jurina
5. Kashiwagi Yuki
6. Shimazaki Haruka
7. Takahashi Minami
8. Miyawaki Sakura
9. Kojima Haruna
10. Suda Akari
11. Ikoma Rina
12. Shibata Aya
13. Yokoyoma Yui
14. Miyazawa Sae
15. Kodama Haruka
16. Watanabe Miyuki

 

I don't really have a prediction but if it were SKE wise. I believe Jurina, Akari, Aya, Sae, Kaori, and Akane will all make sembatsu, and possibly Yuria. However i don't actually believe Miyuki will be back in sembatsu (it's twice she got in a scandal) while she may have been forgiven by some i don't think it means that she gained enough fans to go back in.

 

I noticed many are also placing Sayanee in Top 3 and Miruki as senbatsu at the same time. I'd be careful with that. NMB48 votes are mostly polarized between Sayanee and Miruki. They were getting about the same votes, but when Miruki got her scandals, a good chunk of her votes transferred to Sayanee. So, I'd be careful when placing Sayanee and Miruki as senbatsu: If Sayanee is top 3, I'd say there's virtually no way for Miruki to gather enough votes to reach senbatsu, as the only way for Sayanee to be there is to attract Miruki's votes. Had it not been for the scandals, I'd say Miruki and Sayanee would have shared about the same position (10 and 12 or so) in the last election.

Imagine that the threshold for senbatsu could be in around 30k votes, and the top position should be north of 100k votes, more likely 130k or 140k, which means having Sayanee as Top 3 and Miruki as Top 16 would mean at least 130k votes between them both. Maybe Nana votes can help, but I doubt they would go to Miruki, instead they would go to Sayanee (who has always been her favorite tsukkomi and the one who shared the group leadership).

 

@cherybonchan
I am certainly sure that Sakuratan will enter kami7 this year. I believe if she is in different league with Sae. Sae will continue to drop her rank.

@ET920
You are assuming if the one voting sayaka last year are majority nmb fans (i.e somesort of hako oshi), but sayanee fandom has grown very rapidly recently, so her entering top 5 is not impossible, thou top 3 is kinda forcng it.

 

I think why people include Sayanee in the Top 3 (while I don't) is because her fandom and her growth rapidly this year. I have stated this a thousand times but she is really growing immensely this year, both within the fandom and the mainstream media.
She's currently the handshake queen of the 48Group (though I think we shouldn't judge with the chara-ani sales, but according to some fans, her venue is always packed and her resales always sold out too)(and if we judge from Kibouteki and GF, she sold out really fast, even faster than Rena and Yukirin, just like Yuko back in the days), her photobook sales (she got 79,000+ within 5 weeks, even surpassing Maiyan and Nanase, and her photobook is more expensive than other recent 48G photobooks like Yuria, Yuihan, Maiyan, Nanase, Kojiharu's new photobook (1500+), her photobook costs 1800 yen), gravures/magazines, she's always in demand so I don't think hako-oshis votes alone will be resulted.
And the scary thing is she hasn't hit her momentum yet.

 

My prediction now that Rena isn't taking part

NMB48 TEPPEN TOTTANDE!!
1. Sayanee
2. Yukirin

Former winners
3. Mayuyu
4. Sasshi

New wave leaders
5. Jurina
6. Paruru

Old Favourites that won't back down
7. Dasu
8. Takamina
9. Kojiharu

The above 9 are locks imo so the rest of the girls are according to how much I want them to do well.

Wildcards
10. Miyuki/Sakura/Yui
13. Ricchan/Sae
15. Miichan/Rie/Aya/Yuria/Churi/Kaotan/Ikoma

I think any of the above 12 girls have the chance of making it into senbatsu.

 

My prediction if Takamina/Yukirin/Nyannyan/Sasshi opt out and Rena's out so..

1. Watanabe Mayu
2. Matsui Jurina
3. Yamamoto Sayaka
4. Shimazaki Haruka
5. Miyawaki Sakura
6. Yokoyama Yui
7. Miyazawa Sae
8. Suda Akari
9. Shibata Aya
10. Watanabe Miyuki
11. Ikoma Rina
12. Kawaei Rina
13. Kizaki Yuria
14. Iriyama Anna
15. Minegishi Minami
16. Kodama Haruka/Takayanagi Akane

 

Uhhhh, Yukirin is not going to opt out. Not when she has been stating, since the KNP promotion days, unequivocally that she wants #1.

We are Yukirin World. And we are coming!

 

Well if she won't opt out then she'll most likely be within the top 3 and a contender for the top spot IF Sasshi opts out.

 

I think Sasshi/Yukirin will win anyway
I am half sure Yukirin will have chance to beat Mayuyu.

 

My prediction now that Takamina has applied so probably Sasshi/Kojiharu will too.

1. Sashihara Rino
2. Kashiwagi Yuki
3. Watanabe Mayu
4. Yamamoto Sayaka
5. Matsui Jurina
6. Shimazaki Haruka
7. Takahashi Minami
8. Kojima Haruna
9. Miyawaki Sakura
10. Suda Akari
11. Yokoyama Yui
12. Miyazawa Sae
13. Shibata Aya
14. Watanabe Miyuki
15. Ikoma Rina
16. Takayanagi Akane/Matsumura Kaori

 

Here goes my prediction after everything happened.. (for now)
I'm kinda suck at prediction tho

1. Sashihara Rino
2. Matsui Jurina
3. Watanabe Mayu
4. Kashiwagi Yuki
5. Yamamoto Sayaka
6. Shimazaki Haruka
7. Takahashi Minami
8. Miyawaki Sakura
9. Kojima Haruna
10. Suda Akari
11. Yokoyama Yui
12. Shibata Aya
13. Miyazawa Sae
14. Kizaki Yuria
15/16. Ikoma Rina/Matsumura Kaori

but myself REALLLYYY hoping yukirin will get #2 or be on top. or at least still in top 3.
I doubt that she's out from ssk. still thinking nyan might be out :/

 

1-2. Sashihara Rino/Yukirin
3. Watanabe Mayu
4. Matsui Jurina
5. Yamamoto Sayaka
6. Shimazaki Haruka
7. Miyawaki Sakura
8. Suda Akari
9. Takahashi Minami
10. Kojima Haruna
11. Yokoyama Yui
12. Shibata Aya
13. Miyazawa Sae
14. Kizaki Yuria
15/16. Ikoma Rina/Matsumura Kaori

 

It is my pet name for Sashihara Rino. Contrary to popular believe, it is a term of endearment, I am actually a big fan of Sashihara Rino.

 

So, by the end of the week, we will know who participates!?!?! I guess there will be no surprises at that stage... Kojima Haruna and Takahashi Minami probably will be there....

 

TAKAMINA IS IN??!! I'm surprised

 

Not surprising actually. Takamina is very predictable, she loves AKB and enjoys taking part in AKB activities. She's also thinking about AKB's welfare (both the fans and the groups) by taking part. Rena on the other hand thinks more about herself as an individual and also her fans (as opposed to AKB48 group fans) which explains why she chose not to.

 

If Rena only cares about herself she would have left like last year, the reason why she's not participating is because she actually cares about the group and the young gen and she wants people to notice the young gen more

 

I doubt her fandom increased enough to duplicate the number of votes she got last year, which is what she would need in order to top the ranking. And Takamina in means one spot less in Kami7.

 

I'm sorry, but in what universe do you have to be in to consider Takamina's actions as good for AKB's welfare as opposed to Rena's which is supposedly selfish?

By participating, Takamina will obviously take up one spot in Senbatsu. One spot in Senbatsu that could have gone to a rising member that needs that exposure and could gain the fans that keep up AKB's "welfare". Takamina already announced her graduation, so I don't see how her participation will benefit AKB in ANY way. That being said, I could see why it would be nice for her to participate, and have her fans give her one last gesture of thanks. But that has nothing to do with AKB's "welfare" and, if anything, could help perpetuate the idea that AKB won't do as well when she is gone.

On the other hand, Rena is giving a chance to her fellow members to come to the top. If she were really selfish, Rena would have graduated last year amidst SKE's graduation spree in order to promote her solo career. As @kk127 said, Rena cares about the new gen, so she wants people to notice them more. Rena is not going to stay in the group forever, so I feel that she wants to spend her last stretch by giving her juniors a chance to shine brighter.

Anyways... my Senbatsu prediction:

1. Kashiwagi Yuki
2. Sashihara Rino
3. Matsui Jurina
4. Watanabe Mayu
5. Yamamoto Sayaka
6. Shimazaki Haruka
7. Miyawaki Sakura
8. Suda Akari
9. Takahashi Minami
10. Yokoyama Yui
11. Shibata Aya
12. Miyazawa Sae
13. Watanabe Miyuki
14. Matsumura Kaori
15. Kodama Haruka
16. Takayanagi Akane

Some points:

• I really cannot see Mayuyu winning again... I know that she got a lot of votes last year from people who didn't want to see Sasshi win again, and although I know fans have the incentive to want her to get no. 1 once more, I just didn't see much growth from her this year.
• Although I definitely do think that Sayanee did gain a lot of fans this year, I cannot help but think that a lot of her votes last year were from NMB hako-oshis who shifted away from Milky. Let's admit, she is the leader that a LOT of people are willing to vote for. But after NMB's embarrassing performance at last year's Sousenkyo, I cannot help but to think that fans want a wider representation than just Sayanee. So I do think her votes will increase substantially, just not to the point that people are guessing (But I might change my mind after the prelims)
• Last year I actually voted for Ikoma after seeing her miserable prelim rank, however, I don't think that Nogizaka fans have the same incentive to prove the group's power, so I see her dropping.