Event / Concert AKB48 41st Single Senbatsu Sousenkyo (June 6, 2015)

I think management is done with Mayu. Just make her win once, and we're done.
Mayu has a great fanbase, so I think she's safe in 1-3 places in SSK no matter what.
Of course I would love Mayu to win again though

 

I guess management is bent on not having Mayu win again this year.
I mean having the SSK in Fukuoka has been a dead giveaway.
And now having her next single release days after SSK.
I don't like to believe that those are just mere coincidences.

 

tbh, I don't think Mayu would win a second time in a row even without it, but management going out of their way to assure it, is just.....

 

I think the whole releases affecting a girl's ranking in SSK is a HUGE myth.

Why I say that? Look at 2012, Rino Sashihara had her first solo single which came out on May 2nd of that year and along with Not Yet's 4th Single on May 30th. How did she do in the Election. She moved up 5 spots to the top 4 (#4). Same with HKT48's 5th Single which was released a week ago, it sold the highest 1st week sales ever for HKT48 and it will affect how the girls of HKT48's will rank. No, it won't.

Also the whole thing that management doesn't want Mayuyu to win for a 2nd time with them releasing her 5th Single 4 days after SSK is another myth. It didn't affect the girls of NMB48 in 2013 when they had their 7th single released 11 days after the 2013 SSK. As a matter of fact, it sold 481,843 in it's first week (which is the most in its first week for NMB48)

Also in the 5th Senbatsu Sousenkyo. Sayanee and Miyuki join Senbatsu, Yamada moved up 18 spots, Mayu Ogasawara moved up 6 spots, even Miorin (who at that time was a Kennin for NMB48) moved up a spot.

Fuuko Yagura, Shu Yabushita, Akari Yoshida, Kei Jonishi all debuted that year in the election as well.

The only thing that it "might" affect is the sales of her solo single (Cause you know they will go for SSK votes first, believe me, mayuyu oshis will go for SSK votes first then buy her solo single). But even then I don't think it will affect her solo single sales.

Pretty much, I don't see releases coming out before or after SSK affecting a girl's ranking in SSK. As long as the girl is popular, it won't have any affect on them in the SSK and girls like Mayuyu are still popular.

 

Some Mayu fans will probably find it difficult to support both Mayu's SSK campaign and single BUT I think when it comes down to it, her fans will prioritize the SSK.

 

No, I doubt it will have impact on her ssk ranks. Anyway, her fan ssk campaign and has started long long ago. Funds have been donated to the ssk fundraising. I dont think they want refund for that. Amd they will continue focusing on her ssk. Last week somebody quoted number of followers of ssk campaigns in China, Mayuyu has the biggest number. So it is really that safe


I think though, the management is smart. Or probably I should Ogi Pro. The solo single there is an excuse will act as an excuse if she doesnt win. There is her solo single rite? The fan is going to use this excuse. Smart people. Why are u ppl blaming aks seriously. Those who planned her single and everything is Ogi Pro. And do u think Ogi Pro want her artist to fail which affect the agency so badly? They are smart. They want her artists' name and image to be protected so that it create revenue for them

 

^What about the single sales then ?
Wotas usually buy all the types of the single to help sales ..... But because of ssk they might have lesser money to do so , so they may end up buying one type .... Or delaying buying which will affect the first day or first week sales

 

Mayuyu hasn't been campaigning as heavily for #1 as she did last year. She also doesn't have to prove herself anymore. So I think her votes will go down somewhat but whether or not Sasshi is going to overtake her again remains to be seen. Her single sales are quite strong but as she doesn't have #1 streak to defend, her fans could easily buy their versions a week or two later than they usually would.

 

Honestly, neither has everybody else (been campaigning heavily). Just some declarations that they want to be #1. Those girls being Mayuyu, Yukirin, Sasshi, Paruru, Takamina and I think Jurina and Sayanee also made some declarations to be #1 as well and her funding has pretty much started a couple of months ago (as souchan mentioned) because we want #1 spot again (even though I predicted Yukirin would take #1, I would love to see my oshimen make history.)

As of late you have been seeing fan ssk campaign beginning like around the end of the year and the beginning of the new year and Mayuyu oshis were no different.

I guess you can say now that fan ssk campaigns are also made not just for SSK, but for being able to buy stuff that comes out before or just after the SSK lol.

I know there is a chance this will be her lowest selling solo single. (giving that sub unit and solo singles do have sales that drop from the first single). Even if it's the first couple days aren't great, the next bunch of days will be. Mayuyu's last single (Back in 2013) had two days where she wasn't in the top 3 in sales (Day 1 and 4) and more in likely, that could happen here.

But also don't forget that Mayuyu is popular and this can work for girls like her (also with girls like Yukirin, Sasshi, Takamina, and Sayanee (who I WANT to have a damn solo ASAP) as well). These are also girls who have fan ssk campaigns going for their girl as well.

 

M1 is drama theme song and M2 is CM song so blame whoever gave mayu those

by june 10 it will be at ep9/10 and barely anytime for promotion, might even be on its last episode or so by then
normally its released around/after the midway mark
as for other dramas this season(getsu9 theme song is on 5/13, 2 other on 5/27 2 other on 6/3, yamegoku 6/10, incomplete data from DA wiki, you get the idea)

 

Lets not forget that her single is released in June however most of the votes money saved have already been spent in May so her single will be based on her wotas' May paycheck. So yeah her sales arent gonna be affected much

 

I really doubt the relase of a single right after the election will matter much.

Have in mind that the bulk of votes come from theater editions and those are already sold (the last relase was a couple of days ago, IIRC?).
Yes, there are other editions and such, but the normal editions don't really add much in the end.

If anything, it could be beneficial for her to start promoting the single during the election period to gain some casuals to vote for her.

 

Nikkei entertainment survey
http://ent.nikkeibp.co.jp/ent/monthly/2015/06/index.shtml

2015
http://ww3.sinaimg.cn/large/a76aad40gw1erp7jtp7obj21kw15m4p2.jpg
2014
http://ww2.sinaimg.cn/large/a76aad40gw1efzkkvtovcj21kw16vx4l.jpg

A few things I noticed.

Kato Rena (15%/66%), Miyawaki Sakura (16%/66%), Kojima Mako (18%/66%) and Kodama Haruka (18%/70%) have about similarly low recognition but very high interest among those who know them among the Japanese public.

Kawaei (48%/57%), Paruru (47%/58%) and Matsui Rena (44%/56%) are in about the same place too.

Jurina has less recognition and interest than those three I just mentioned (38%/54%), Sayanee even less recognition but high interest (33%/66%).

AKB48's top four are:

4. Mayuyu (70%/50%)

3. Yukirin (70%/52%)

2. Sasshi (77%/51%)

1. Takamina (78%/54%)

 

Nothing really surprising about those numbers. Except Haruppi's numbers being larger than Sakuratan's, in both catagories.

And I would not consider those numbers low, for a member of a group in a very niche genre of the music market. 12% and up is still pretty damn good. IMO.

 

I think it's natural. Those with low recognition are probably likely to be known by people who already show an interest in them. Those with a high recognition are also known to people who are not interested in idols.

 

Ehhhhhh Renacchi!!! I'm so happy for her interest rate!!

 

If Mayuyu ranking will drop it would be interesting to hear what she has to say. Will she top her 2010 speech?

 

I must say, it's alarming how low Jurina's recognition/interest when compared to the other members.
And wow, Paruru got better figures than Matsui Rena!

Interesting..

 

just think,
interest: hardcore fans
recognition: just popular among casual fans

 

I'm curious, though. I've checked the chart for the last 2 years not including this year and I've always under impression that Nikkei defined their terms as following
Recognition = know face and name
Interest = wanting to hear / know more about
with both % based on the total amount of people survey'd. Is that wrong, then? Because here it seems like Recognition is based on total amount and Interest is based on those who recognized the person / group.