Single AKB48 43rd [Kimi wa Melody] (2016/03/09)

As a new-ish fan, I'm actually absolutely okay with Acchan and Yuko being in the kouhaku for Takamina.
It's a one off thing and it won't leave any lasting impact.

Being in the 43rd though, absolute objection. Like I mentioned over and over, new gen essentially loses almost half a year of promotion and possible exposure. Team 4 girls, are now out of any form of A-Side PV until freaking May or June, and they're suppose to use that to promote their SSK, hah!
It's not just objection, I facepalmed hard when I heard it, I still hate the idea today. But I can't do anything about the management hating it's own future.
I was very happy with since late 2014
beginning with KR, where "DOZENS" of new gen are in the A-side.
Then GF, where new gen took up majority of the screen time.
BwT, even better, 5 fronted it.
HN, I can't complain, it's the result of SSK
KBnBMB, I'm okay with it. It's Takamina's last, all attention can be on her, she actually deserves it even if she have a solo PV in there. (I'm actually quite happy with her putting Komiyama Haruka in her grad single)

... And 43rd happen... I don't want to say late-2014 to 2015 December has been wasted.... But they're pretty much wasted. All that red hot momentum the next-gen had was effectively put on halted after BwT, and will be left cold until May/June this year.

... Now what? starting from 2016 May/June, Management have to "restart" the transition again... This is just laughable.

As for Kennin.
They're fine, just don't put them at the center spot.
They did well with BMB, A side had at least Paruru WCenter it, K have Mukaichi, B had Yuria and Rena, 4 had Sayaya and Mako.
It was job well done, I can accept kennin in AKB if they don't solo center it.
Again, Kennin are fine, but focus the camera on the "AKB" center. AKB need the exposure, Kennin are already getting extra exposure just by being in the PV. (On top of what they already had in their group)

 

@SorrowAir The 43rd single senbatsu has 21 members though, remove all 5 graduates (including Takamina) and it's 16. I'm pretty sure that even if they didn't bring back the graduates, no one else in AKB would be included in senbatsu, they would just be 16... So yes, there's no difference for new gens.

I believe there will be more chances for new gens later... Yes they won't get the chance to shine on the first single of 2016 but after that, no more grad members in singles (this single is the first time they bring back grads anyway...), and more free spots in the 16-members senbatsu too. Sae graduating, maybe Miichan/Kojiharu too... I'm just saying, grads being there or not is not what is blocking new gens from being senbatsu, the senbatsu is full, even without grads there's no space in the 16-members senbatsu right now, but after this 43rd single there will be more space. It won't take that long.

Besides we still don't know what roles the grads will have in this single... For all we know the song will be promoted by the 16-members senbatsu only.

 

There is a difference, it's call the message they're sending and the amount of time they "WASTED"

Why is no one giving a shit about the half a year of wasted opportunity? Somebody need to explain to me why are people so chilled about the entire 6 month waste of time til SSK single in May/June?
Where new gen only gets 1 A-side to promote? WHY? Somebody freaking tell me why!


Is this year really supposed to be about transition toward new gen?

No, it's 1 step forward and 3 step back, by May/June they'll be even more behind than when they were in BwT when it comes to next-gen transition.

What's next after SSK 2016? An SSK senbatsu that look large similar to SSK 2015, then ignore next-gen transition in December 2016 release and reset again? And we'll once again get promise of "it's time for new gen in 2017"?

Sound familiar? Oh yeah that's right! That's exactly what happen with stages.
It's always too little, and too fucking late.

I'll have you know that a little exposure goes a long freaking way.
Nishino Nanase (One B-side), Okada Nana (One segment), Hashimoto Kanna (One Picture), Ju Jingyi (one online article), Matsui Rena (Gekikara), Sashihara Rino (Shukan AKB), Miyawaki Sakura (KR).

Heck, you have no idea how popular Owada Nana is among chinese fanbase just because of Sailor Zombie's exposure. There's sizable thread dedicated to complaining every single time Nanya isn't included in A-side, every, single, time. There's even a running joke about how Nanya would not have make it in SSK 2015 if it weren't for the Chinese votes.

 

I think you should calm down, it's not that serious I'm sure AKB will survive one single having 5 grad members (the first time they ever bring back graduates). We have no details. Besides like I said even without grads, the senbatsu is full and no other member would be added.

You said the problem is exposure but now the problem is the "message"? Ok at this point you're just trying to find things to complain about...

Btw did we forget that there's one more single before elections? New gens won't have 0 opportunities in 6 months. There's the summer single. And honestly, grads being there is still not the reason why new gens aren't in senbatsu. No matter how you look at it, it's not related.

Maybe your issue/complaints should be more about the current 16-members senbatsu lacking new gens, rather than the fact that grads are back...

 

Both the message and exposure.

People have to remember that the transition is put to a halt until 2016 of May/June, that is huge.
This single should not have grad member and Takamina back in the first place, btw,
Actually...
I dare you to tell me with complete confidence that even if the graduates aren't back, this single will remain with the exact same senbatsu.
You most probably can't.
Frankly, I don't think anyone can be stupid enough to actually claim and believe that.
The song will likely be different, the theme will most likely be different, the message they'll try to spread will most definitely be different.

I need to calm down? No, I shouldn't, and here's why.
Because people are too freaking calm about this long-overdued transition. (I don't think anyone will disagree with this point, there's people even talking about removing kennin all-together)

The longer they drag this, the harder AKB48 will fall, and the longer it'll take to rebuild/revitalize the group... Which translate to more pressure on Yokoyama, Paruru, and next gen girls.
Which cannot be healthy

Which may translate to Sashi/Mayuyu "required" to stay even longer than they wish. Yes, required.

EDIT: Don't get me wrong, I freaking love Sashi/Mayuyu, I think they're both fantastic and have endured very hard times during 2013~2015 as the face of the declining group. which is why I don't want them to go through what Takamina did, they've done enough. They need reinforcement, and they need it fast. Yokoyama and Paruru need the help, similarly, they need it fast.

EDIT 2: Calm down? Please, I'm probably the actual calm one here, calm enough to actually analyze, predict things and having rational foresight into the first 3/4 of 2016.

 

yuph I think this 43rd single is accidentally.
should KnBmB is 43rd single and 42nd single is for that graduate member and 10th anniv,
but mgm just got idea to bring back that 4 graduate member after anniv concert .

 

So, I guess based on past bevavioural patterns it's a given that the 48th single will bring graduates back as well. So we have 4 singles in between, one of which would probably be centered by Nyan/Yuki/both if and when they decide to graduate. We wouldn't want to disrespect such worthy members! Another one is for the election senbatsu, leaving mostly sister groups and old-mid gen for the spots. Which makes 2 singles, one of which is sure to have new gens (aka the voting ticket mass senbatsu).

And then a look at senbatsu locks:

Kojima Haruna, age 27, gen 1, 41 senbatsus
Watanabe Mayu, age 21, gen 3, 35 senbatsus
Kasiwagi Yuki, age 24, gen 3, 33 senbatsus
Sashihara Rino, age 23, gen 1 hkt, gen 5 akb , 25 senbatsus
Kitahara Rie, age 24, gen 5, 23 senbatsus
Yokoyama Yui, age 23, gen 9, 22 senbatsus
Shimazaki Haruka, age 21, gen 9, 15 senbatsus
Matsui Jurina, age 18, gen 1 ske, 30 senbatsus
Yamamoto Sayaka, age 23, gen 1 nmb, 17 senbatsus
Kizaki Yuria, age 19, gen 2 kennin, 7 senbatsus
Kato Rena, age 18, gen 10, 6 senbatsus
Iriyama Anna, age 20, gen 10, 7 senbatsus
Miyawaki Sakura, age 17, gen 1 hkt, 9 senbatsus

Possible licks: Minegishi Minami, Mukaichi Mion

Excluding the last 2, we have three open spots but no 2nd Ske or nmb member, nor an ngt native, nor a pushed haruppi in the locks...

Medium senbatsu age: 21.4 years/ 20.8 senbatsus

 

I feel like everything is on fire around me....sheesh y'all, it's JUST Idol music...

Anyway... I can't help but feel like this was announced way too early. We've still got three long months ahead....I hate this

 

No, the only thing I care about is AKB48 staying afloat for the next few years.

And for it to stay afloat, focusing on next gen transition and hastening it's exposure is needed and fast.


If you have knowledge of the so call real data, why don't you present them and shed some light on things? About how next-gen transition is well in motion and making great progress.
I never said senbatsu is the only way, heck, Matsumura's existence alone is enough proof of it.
Also my previous examples are filled with ways people become famous "away from senbatsu"
Nishino Nanase, Hashimoto Kanna, Ju Jingyi, Okada Nana, Owada Nana. (I wonder why you ignored this part of my post)
So stop assuming what I think.



That said, can you actually tell me "senbatsu is not important"?

Being in senbatsu immediately means more TV appearance, that is huge.
There's a reason why girls cry over not making senbatsu, and there's endless reference to "the difference in number of jobs pre and post senbatsu"

While senbatsu is not the be-all and end-all of entity, senbatsu is still undoubtedly very important. As it provide more than just PV exposure. (Frankly, this much is obvious to everyone, including yourself)

Nothing is on fire, just opposing opinion and viewpoints.

For the sake of AKB48, I actually wish that I am completely wrong about everything and none of my fears came true. And things will change dramatically for the good of the group in 2016

With the management's track record... I'm simply a bit too far from being able to feel optimistic about 2016. Frankly, I was on all time high when it comes to being optimistic about the future of AKB between the time period of KR to BwT, my optimism was still high with BMB because there's at least jisedai senbatsu single included...

It's the announcement of 43rd that really makes me take a step back, look at things, calculate the potential wasted time, etc etc and become upset with the unfortunate conclusion I arrive to.


Transition of Yuko to Mayuyu wasn't smooth
It's thanks to the anomaly, AKA, Sashihara to liven things up a bit
However, an anomaly is called an anomaly because they're extremely uncommon.
You'd think management learn from their lesson after the rough transition of Acchan/Yuko to Mayu/Sashi... To focus more on new gen for a smoother transition...

No, they learn little, in fact they went even further back. And crippled the gen after Mayu Sashi even more. (Mayu Sashi was 3 and 4 when they're about to take over... Paruru and Yokoyama is 9 and 10)

 

Back in the day, Acchan and Yuko were the "aces"
the figureheads of AKB.
They simply need to push someone enough so there will be the same glamour around them
I don't necessarily think that helps all the girls, as all of them should be recognized, but when we try to help 16 senbatsu everything becomes dilluted. I support showing all the girls, cuz they deserve it, but I think even for newer members, since no new member has that push and glamour that Acchan and Yuko had, then new gen will still live in shadows.


I love the idea of NGT48 but do u really need so many girls? We really need to cut back the number of members so we can build up better bases for each girl.

My opinion probablydoesnt make any sense currently since I'm in a rush

I think the graduate returning should have been the 10th anniversary (KnBMB) single , cause at this point it looks like a pointless gimmick

 

Let's take a step back and think about what these "six wasted months" actually mean. One MV and maybe three tv performances? Is not being somewhere hidden in the mass for one single detrimental to a girl's career and AKB as a whole? To the general public and casual fans this has no significance while the loyal fans will support the group no matter what and find their favourites through other means, like concert footage and tv shows anyway.

If you mean that AKB is screwed in terms of mainstream popularity because the new gen hasn't become popular enough to fill their senpais' place, then it's already too late. I don't see how one single filled with new gens would save their entire future. It could only cause less interest and lower sales. Maybe the management has come to realise this, the fact that AKB will never be what it once was again, so they at least try to milk a bit of those old times and secure enough interest while it's still possible and while they have an excuse for it.

 

I know it's much more fun to come to the conclusion that management is purposely trying to sabotage the group that is providing them their livelihood, but perhaps you could try to consider other possible explanations for decisions that you might disagree with. For instance, it could be that this was their best possible, albeit imperfect, solution. The fact is they have been getting an incredibly good response when bringing back grads.

@SorrowAir it's interesting that you bring up BwT as giving the younger members more momentum. In my opinion it's really surprising that it had such little impact when you take into account that AKB has never had a production to this scale and that it was intrinsically tied to the biggest, most widely publicized event in the whole franchise. I think it tells you that the exposure matters little if they can't attract people's interest in the first place. @Mana had a good point in this thread or elsewhere where she speculated that they might try to use the attention that the grads attract to more effectively push the young members. Putting young members in the A-side is one thing, but trying to get more people watching it is another.

I've personally seen a lot of efforts from management to promote the young members who aren't at senbatsu level yet (i.e. other members besides just Sakura, Mion, Yuria, Rena, Anna) with things like the start of the new teams and the special stages, which for me personally really revitalized my interest in AKB's theater, as well as a ton of shows primarily or solely focused on them*, not to mention continued domination of men's magazines and 2015 being the year of photobooks. Meanwhile, they keep the old gens with a decent following in the senbatsu, they would probably prefer not to alienate the die-hard fans who could easily be on the market for a 2oshi. There could be reasonings like that. All I'm doing is throwing possibilities out there aside from "management is trying very hard to sabotage this group"

*About the shows, do people not realise that these are a big deal? THREE Majisuka shows + a stage play, AKBINGO, Nemousu, Otomari, Adrenaline no Yoru, Gekijou kara no Jotaijo, Tabi Shoujo, Kangaeru Yoru; 2015 saw the start of a number of new shows (many of them imo the best we've seen in years) that heavily feature young members.

 

I forgot about new tv show old tv show drama and mv. There are more younger than old members now.

 

Don't worry, AKB is in no danger of not staying afloat, especially when you are worried about this for one single. Actually, the hype in the ex-fandom (i.e. people who left when Acchan or Yuko... left) will probably be pretty high, and they might even like it enough to come back. You never know. So it's not a bad thing at all really. And even if that doesn't happen, do you think the difference between AKB folding and AKB staying afloat is if Naanya/Kojimako/... get into one single? Nope, I think you are overreacting about this, and are definitely not calm when half your original post is bolded.

 

I'm not claiming anything as fact, but rather discussed within the limited resources I have. May they be observable pattern or prediction.

As I state earlier, I'm happy to be wrong about all this, beck I even want to be wrong, however after considering the available data and observation of my own, I simply cannot see too much good in what's happening right now.

I not looking through things with Oshi-goggles, if I did I would've turned green flash thread over and drag it through hell and back for what became of Yukirins screen time

 

@rka i dont know if i've ever told you this, but Jesus, you light my spirit up hahahahha everytime i read your posts, it makes me happy, like: yaaaay good reading coming hahahah
we should creat a thread like @rka insights of AKB48! hahahahah

I just wanna add something:
Considering the 16 senbatsu for the 43rd (excluding the 5 graduated)
Kojima will graduate soon, sometime between now and 2025.
Minegishi will be out of 16 senbatsu after 43rd (high chance of this happening)
Rie - she might graduate also in the next few years, probably by end of 2017.
Sae - graduating soon
Yuki, sashi and Mayu will graduate when management team allows them to, and they wont allow them to graduate all in the same year, and i think the girls are already orginising their graduation.
probably yuki will graduate after kojima really decides to leave, then sashi next year after winning ssk this year again, and mayu at least by 2017 and 2018.

 

I mostly agree with @SorrowAir's concerns over the new gen members but this paragraph makes a lot of sense. However, I do think that dancing in the backrow of a 16-nin is still pretty important. Look at Umechan, Daasu, Ayachan who are all doing really well now. Backrow of a 32 nin is useless though, you don't even get to appear in the PV as in BwT

But yea I am tired of waiting already, Sasshi and Mayu are ready to lead AKB just fine imo. I'm a lot more interested in the both of them then Acchan, Yuko and Takamina combined. Besides, there are many reliable new but not so new members like Sayanee, Paruru (and Milky if they would just let her into senbatsu ffs) to draw interest even if no one wants to see Renacchi, Annin and Yuria.

 

Mayu and Yuki are the golden goose of AKB right now. Discounting Sashi (she's HKT) and Jurina (SKE) and Sayaka (NMB), of course. But these 5 girls are gonna stay in the 48 group for a while. At least, for the next 2 years I'm predicting. I think the management will make any deal with these 5 girls.

Annin is still climbing IMO. Renacchi and Yuria? If their HS and elections ranks these past year are any indication, the fans have spoken.

 

Something that I am very curious about

Why do you think senbatsu is not important at all? It is also pretty ironic how the three girls you mentioned are all senbatsu regulars (somewhat for Mai). I'm not saying they are "famous" but if the members you cite as being successful are senbatsu regulars doesn't it actually enforce the importance of being in senbatsu? Personally, aside from Wasamin, I can hardly think of any member who is somewhat popular (IMO) who has never been in senbatsu before but even then, she was part of a subunit.

On the side, being popular with wotas does not mean they are famous by any means. Kojiharu is undeniably famous but is she popular with wotas? Hardly. Lastly, success with wotas should hardly be the end goal for the members. IMO, senbatsu is important because it allows members to be seen by a bigger audience, outside from the wotas who are already interested in them and this is very important in helping them get more important work outside of the group.

 

Yes, but the problem is that the bigger audience is already pretty bored of AKB and all its spin offs. Their "cool new concept" era passed, and the general public has mostly moved on to different things.

@rka: I think what you said about mgmt is crucial, especially considering that Akimoto already pulled the plug on Onyanko Club which was like the biggest thing at its time when they were at the height of their fame and he has been hinting about "graduating" from AKB already. Maybe they don't intend for the group to last 10 more years (although then NGT becomes even more pointless but oh well)