2016 Senbatsu Election Predictions/Hopes/Dreams & Etc

I doubt it sounds any different when pronounced, anyway i decided not to underestimate Mai this year who knows how well she will place.

 

I find it really difficult to think in terms of just numbers so this is gonna be pretty verbose @~@

Predictions for specific members:

• $ashihara Rino and her weaponized ojisans dominate but the gap between 1st and 2nd isn't as dramatic as last year.
  
• Spoiler: Yukirin (spoiler'd for length)

  Yukirin loses votes or barely maintains. She's a fairly orthodox idol hit with a pretty cut-and-dry scandal and I don't think the social media silent treatment afterwards (whether it was her idea or management's decision) helped. Her diehard fans are definitely enthusiastic since they have a lot to prove this year but I'm not sure it'll be enough to topple Sasshi. They couldn't do that last year pre-scandal and I don't see Yukirin as the type of idol who would benefit from a scandal as Sasshi did. But, then again, I'm also predicting that Sasshi's oshis aren't going to be at max power like they were last year so who knows. Yukirin's my number 2 pick for winner pretty far behind Sasshi.
• Spoiler: Mayuyu (spoiler'd for length)

  Mayu loses votes and possibly falls for 4th. A lot of people have felt like she's been phoning it in since last year and I think that's dampened her fans' enthusiasm. My theory as to why back-to-back wins have been so difficult is in part because fans are financially and emotionally exhausted after carrying a girl to 1st. It's not just buying CDs and inputting codes, it's also coordinating fans and money and events and donations and websites and campaigns and thousands upon thousands of voting codes. Fanbases need the year afterwards to "recharge" and then the year after that, are fired up again because of the "revenge" angle. So, this should be Mayu's year again but I think she lost her chance to strike back. Dropping 1st to 3rd was a serious blow to morale but her own lack of energy and management's transition to Sakura as The Girl was what I think sealed her fate. I'm honestly surprised she's participating since it seems like she's ready to enter a Kojiharu-ish super veteran status.
• Spoiler: Jurina (spoiler'd for length)

  Jurina does well and maybe jumps to 3rd. She hasn't had an extraordinary year and SKE is transitioning to new gens, but I think her fans are tired of seeing her cry and beginning to realize that they don't have forever until she graduates. She's 19. Now is around the time that her career should be kicking into high gear. But I also worry about the "freshness" aspect with regards to Jurina since despite her relatively young age, she has zero freshness left. She's been in nearly 50 senbatsus. She's already appealed herself to the entire fanbase. Everybody knows who she is and there aren't a lot of newbies getting into AKB these days so I wonder how much difficulty she's going to have collecting new fans in the coming years. She may have reached her peak but I don't see her dropping yet.
• Sayanee keeps up with the herd. I can see her in the Mariko position for the rest of her time in 48G. A strong, steady, enthusiastic fanbase that keeps her comfortably in Kami7 but never actually hits 1st or 2nd. If she was younger, I'd consider her a serious contender for center a few years from now, but she's turning 23 in a couple of months and seems too ambitious to stick around forever.
  
• Sakura gets a huge boost in votes and probably rises a few ranks. I'm not sure if the negativity overseas towards her is as palpable as it is here but I see her fans as feeling like they have something to prove now that the future of AKB has been "entrusted" to her. If hating Sakura is indeed a global phenomenon though, her oshis are going to be extra fired up. She's also had a really great year and has probably picked up a lot of new and passionate oshis.
  
• Spoiler: Paruru (spoiler'd for length)

  Paruru swaps with Yuihan and ranks 9th. She was out of action for all of Halloween Night's promotion and all of KnBMB's which seems like kinda a big deal to me. I don't doubt that her fans are going to be super enthusiastic but the problem isn't about that, it's about growth. I think that for now at least, SSK vote counts are going to continue to rise so in order for members to even just maintain their ranks, they have to either gain new fans or fire up their existing ones. As far as I can tell, Paruru has been able to do neither this year. She's another one that I'm shocked actually applied. Falling out of Kami7 seemed to be very difficult for her and this was by no means her year.
• Yuihan at 8th. I can't believe it but this soukantoku thing seems to be working for her.
  
• Haruppi ranks closer to 10th than 16th and her speech is extremely long.
  
• Spoiler: Miichan (spoiler'd for length)

  Miichan jumps up. I usually don't subscribe to the "hivemind vote transferal" theory (like I can't believe people really thought Jurina would receive more than a negligible amount of Rena's votes last year) but the fact that she's the only first gen participating combined with the free spots above her, the amount of work she's had this year, her exposure within the group as part of the 10th Anniversary festivities, and her fans' anticipating a graduation soon ("this could be our last chance"), I think this is her best shot for making Senbatsu post-scandal. ...which is pretty ironic considering what she said last year.
• Annin hits around ~16, putting her either in the tail end of Senbatsu or front of Undergirls. She takes it extremely well either way. Alternatively, she has a dramatic drop. Not doing handshakes, while totally understandable, and not having as much of a benefit from the "sympathy vote" (as much as I hate to call it that) as she did in 2014 might outweigh the benefit of becoming a Senbatsu regular.
  
• Tani Marika ranks similarly to Annin.
• This may be my oshimen glands overreacting but I really think Haruu has a decent chance this year. Every now and then there seems to be an outlier who manages to rank in (Tanamin in 2014, Kana in 2012, Shiichan in 2011/2012, Chiichan in 2012) and since Haruu is a fairly respected yet rarely oshimen'd member, I can see her in that position. Not to mention MCing Team88 Latch, her (VERY sympathetic and flattering) exposure last year in the Nonfiction documentary, and her weight loss which was a hot topic for a while. Do your best, Haruu, I believe in you ;u;

General predictions:

• SKE hako oshis keep going hard
• NMB hako oshis (I'm just assuming they actually exist even though I never hear about them) will try to get another rep into Senbatsu (most likely Miru) but fall short.
• Goto Rara, Goto Moe, Fujita Nana, Sutou Ririka, Ogasawara Mayu, and Miyzaki Miho rank.
• A noticeable number of AKB new gens fail to rank in and later graduate (I'm specifically thinking about Hirari and Komiharu but it could be anyone 12th gen on). I think they're losing their patience and don't want to see themselves in the same position that the AKB mid-gens were in where there just isn't any room for them outside of the theater.
• NGT exceeds expectations, either in the number of girls who rank in or their position/s.
• One of Team 8's kennins rank in. Team 8 and their oshis all go ballistic.
• Saddest rank down goes to Muto Tomu or Kojima Mako

 

I really hope there will be more 11th-13th gen that ranks. They were like between that "Golden new era age" and "The new golden era"

 

Senbatsu
1. Sashihara rino (sasshi fans want to see her get the top senbatsu twice)
2. Kashiwagi yuki (maybe fans ngt also give vote for kashiwagi)
3. Watanabe mayu (i dont know since 2014 ssk maybe she's think that enough since she become the top senbatsu for once)
4. Matsui Jurina (im not really sure for this position for jurina maybe she become 5 or 6, but because she canceled her kennin thats make a benefit for her)
5. Yamamoto Sayaka (she's really neutral, this position really suitable for her)
6. Shimazaki Haruka (because last year she cant become kami 7, fans must give her power vote)
7. Miyawaki Sakura (because she become center not make her vote raising, maybe fans not give her more vote because her over push)
8. Yokoyama Yui (since she become GM, maybe half of takamina vote goes to her)
9. Suda Akari (because last year she didn't make senbatsu, this year her fans will be give her power vote)
10. Kitahara Rie ( last year aki-p really push kitahara again, and it maybe give her benefit. And Ngt fans must be give her more vote)
11. Muto Tomu (last year that really suprising see muto in position 16, and i hear muto fans are really loyal, because of that tomu must give us surprise again this year)
12. Kodama Haruka (because miyawaki always ranked in senbatsu, HKT fans really want to see kodama ranked in senbatsu too)
13. Kizaki Yuria (she always in UG since 2012, her fans really want to see ranked in senbatsu, and because lot of senbatsu member graduate , this will be her chance)
14. Iriyama Anna (her fans save money from last year ssk and handshake even for this year ssk)
15. Minegishi Minami (because she is the only one from first generation, first generation fans will give vote for her)
16. Okada Nana (she really popular in hs event, and i think she must in senbatsu this year)
Undergirls
17. Tani Marika (she become more popular (i think))
18. Takahashi Juri (maybe she can break senbatsu position this year but not really sure thats why i put her in UG)
19. Furuhata Nao
20. Takayanagi Akane
21. Kojima Mako
22. Tomonaga Mio
23. Kato Rena
24. Oba Mina (she become more popular in SKE, if this year she can become top UG, next year she must be break the senbatsu)
25. Mukaichi Mion (she become center, and maybe become UG, but im not really sure if she can become senbatsu)
26. Tashima Meru
27. Jonishi Kei
28. Moriyasu Madoka
29. Kimoto Kanon
30. Miyazaki Miho (i hope myao can comeback to ssk and become UG, i think aki-p want to push her again)
31. Kitagawa Ryoha
32. Mogi Shinobu

 

I think you're RIGHT on the money with this one.

I'm sad though, because I really wish the Kami7 would end up a bit different... but the "anything could happen" mindset flies out the window for Kami7.

I dearly hope Annin makes senbatsu. I'd like to think she has the fans to get her there. Go her, though, for getting back into the Idol world.

As for unranked girls... Hillary has to rank. If she doesn't, I'm pretty sure she'll leave. She gives her all, and probably too much, and I'd say she's tired at this point. I watched her closely during A7, and she's easily one of the best performers, and she seems to go a bit too hard to the point of seeming almost dead during MC's. I'm sure being noticed is her biggest goal. I just wonder how long she can keep that up, and remain unranked and remain out of single participation.

 

1. Furuhata Nao gets into Senbatsu
2. NakoMiku ranking
3. Sasshi doesn't win this year, I want to see things stirred up!
4. Sae visits with Yuko and Sayaka. This is my wishful thinking XD

 

I see two reasons

Spoiler

I'm talking about the pigtails get your mind out of the gutter.

 

Nyan Nyan Kamen is surely the hardest to predict
It could easily be in kami 7, or out of senbatsu, or even not ranked. It's not easy to predict how much could be voted. She could easily have lot of votes, or not be supported by lot of people if there's not a certainty of which members is behind that nickname (even if it's most likely Kojiharu, we cannot be 100% sure about that).

 

• Mayu gets the top or at least not Sasshi,
• Sakura goes higher (at least Kami7),
  
• Ranran gets a higher spot, at least she ranks again,
  
• Haruppi is in the senbatsu
• Sayanee is part of the top 3
  
• Milky is Nyan Nyan Kamen and gets into the senbatsu
• Yuria is in the senbatsu
• Jurina doesn't get the Kami-7
• Akarin comes back in
  
• Churi is still in
• Sasshi isn't the center (did I already say that ?)

 

Can't agree more ,

 

Let's be friend then 8D @Nagasaki

 

I might have skipped some pages, so what is nyan-nyan kamen?

 

Here you can watch about the Nyan Nyan Kamen thing.
However, you have to know that Kojiharu denied Nyan2 Kamen application was made by her, and that the staff recently accepted the application.
http://akb48-daily.blogspot.it/2016/03/kojima-haruna-aka-nyan-nyan-kamen-to.html#.Vwp3z2xf3q4

 

I don't mind sayanee in top 3 BUT JURINA not in kami-7 can't accept it! Mayuyu for top is just not going happen with these two( Sasshi, Yukirin).

 

...That is just my hope ^^° I never said it will happen :3 No need to facepalm

 

Than let's hope it will be true.

 

Thank you.

 

Anyone think that this year Nakamura Mariko/Shimada Haruka will rank because of the documentary?