Event / Concert AKB48 49th Single Senbatsu Sousenkyo (17/06/17)

Last year management put Miion in 9th position (when she ranked 44th the previous year) maybe to give pressure to her fans to make her rank in senbatsu. it worked. Now this year they put her 16th (when she ranked higher last year) maybe to make her fans angry, so they'll vote more? management strategy, LOL.

 

Have any of those guide books ever put sashi as number 1? Hopefully they do this time.

 

Well, the number of the member in the guidebook isn't really meant to reflect past success (anymore). It's also not meant to reflect an honest, logical prediction either.
For the 2014 SSK guidebook, they put Sayanee as #1 even though she was statistically very unlikely to win that year.
Yet in the interview with her they said this:

"Actually...in the official election guidebook, this year, we ranked members based on our own ideas of where they might place this time rather than where they placed last year."

"Our own ideas" is management-speak for "we just did whatever the hell we felt like to make it interesting". In other words, I wouldn't put too much stock into who's which number in the guidebook this - or any - year It's not really a prediction but I think more like putting the spotlight on members they find interesting popularity-wise. Judging by the buzz and the projects Naachan has been given this year, I would not be surprised at all to see her in the front row of this guidebook.

 

It's basically as random as a random dude on s48 puts out a random prediction.

 

Second Girl: Tomonaga Mio

 

So they have put Mio instead of Haruppi.

 

Haruppi don't participate this year..(and if she was i think they would have put her in Kami 7 and not on the 4th row)
Wow at Mion last place:0 i was 100% sure shell be in Kami7, I guess they want the fans to go harder then last year! and Mio is here YESS

 

Yes. I know. They wanted 3 representatives for HKT48 so Sasshi, Mio and Sakura.

 

Mio was 21st place 2 years ago and actually increased her votes last year even though she dropped 3 places so with all the dropouts there's a very good chance she'll get into senbatsu. Afaik there is no quota on whether the should have 2, 3 or 13 representatives from a particular group on the cover.

They could put another HKT girl on the cover for shits and giggles, it really doesn't matter.

 

Mion in 16th place makes no sense considering how they are pushing her.

 

To be honest, the one by one is really tedious lol. I wish they would just release the back 2 rows all at once and make the 2 front rows twice a day.

 

Yeah they are trying to hype it up by announcing each day, as if the sousenkyo itself doesn't already have enough sub-events trying to get people's attention like handing in the forms.

 

Girl #3 (14th): Takayanagi Akane
https://mobile.twitter.com/akb_senkyo_2017/status/859997634471223297

 

That is such an interesting way to reveal the cover. Lol.

 

Is Mio actually likely to enter senbatsu, or have other HKT members eclipsed her popularity? I was under the impression that Mio's popularity had been going down rather than up but is that just crazy talk?

 

Girl #4: Yabuki Nako (#28 in 2016 and unranked before)
https://twitter.com/akb_senkyo_2017/status/860057708312920064

 

It might just be a coincidence so far but it looks like the guidebook cover will feature the 16 highest ranked members from NHK Kouhaku. Remove graduated and non-participating members then Nako, Churi, Mio, and Mion would be 13th to 16th in the rankings, which is exactly where they're positioned on the cover.

If that is the case then the order of the members will be:
1. Sasshi
2. Mayu
3. Sakura
4. Akarin
5. Yuihan
6. Miorin
7. Jurina
8. Shiichan
9. Dasu
10. Rie
11. Mirurun
12. Miichan
13. Nako
14. Churi
15. Mio
16. Mion

 

^I doubt that. Management has always put members that doesn't seem to rank in Senbatsu anyways to favor them or positions that doesn't make sense. We did see Renacchi, Yuria, Myao, Kojimako (especially in 2014), Naanya, and more. Overall, we shouldn't take the positions too seriously. I wouldn't be surprised if Komi is up there because management have taken a liking to Komi lately and she had quite the leap last year.