Single AKB48 53rd [Sentimental Train] (2018/09/19)

I think,ultimately, this single is doing so well because:

• All the media surrounding the absent center (Jurina) and her comeback
• First single post P48, which garnered attention from new fans
• Single features two popular BNK members (Bnk is pretty popular right now)
• More members featured with the new commemorative ranks
• Better HS slots
• Pretty good song

I guess the sum of these, plus other possible factors, made the single sell.

 

- If Jurina is absent her fanbase had zero reason to bulk buy the single nor other 48 fans/random Joe will go like "Hey Jurina is gunna be absent let's all buy this single!! Yeeeeeeee"
- New fans in stage48 yeah? Let's say there is, they are still at the attention level perhaps. I don't think these new fans know how chara-ani works or even exist yet. (Except for exploiting Turkish towers in SR )
- Unsurprisingly Eito's, Team 4, HKT were the backbone of the sales and we got STU hella boosted the single, check out the latest sell out numbers
- Yeah still not cutting it tho...
- Better in what?
- uhhhhhhh

 

It's a comforting feeling that even without the kami 7+Yuki+sasshi+jurina+Sayanee akb still surviving .it's pretty amazing how they are still up there.

 

AKB does not rely on music anymore. Most of the sale are for handshake. They can put white noise in the CDs but increase the HS slots and we can get 2M 1st day.
Note that this is the 1st time the top members have 36 slots (last year they had less than 30; the prev 2 singles had 41 slots but they were special cases). Also, Oricon seems to relax their counting rule in 2018.

 

I'm certain the single is selling well because:

• There are girls from Idol group in it and one is Oba Mina and also Muto Tomu and 14 others.
• It's a song with sections of Chorus, Verse and Bridge. Each with Melodies that are incorporated into them.
• The song has been playbacked on radio stations in Japan and other countries. Also on TV performances where you can see them smile and dance while singing into microphones.
• The handshake formulae is consistent with a kinetic demand and potential energy and rearranged with final sales that should achieve a total popular velocity of .
• And most important, there are people with income that allow for purchase of cd sold at physical locations and through online locations via the internet.

Although I am not a music producer or marketing expert... I did stay at a Holiday Inn. So I'm very sure that my reasoning is 100 percent valid.

 

I wish they'd put something like EXO's White Noise in the CDs

 

LMAO

 

Considering the usual #1 HS seller is not participated in HS anymore and one of top HS seller is absent in this single's HS event, the sales result is kinda... good?

Spoiler

It's not power of gimmicks or hype of Jurina's grande comeback, it's actually power of Yahagi Moeka

 

wow they really didn't re-shoot the cd covers?

i guess I was wrong for thinking this wouldnt be a public hit. 1.3 is the best non ssk single in years..

never mind, upon checking the sales.. this is the best 1.3 non ssk single EVER!

http://stage48.net/wiki/index.php/Oricon#AKB48

 

Do Jurina oshis still buy the single when she’s not there for promo ? Yes, albeit not as much as if she was included in the HS. Because technically it’s still her center song, bad sales would have been reflected by the same way some fans are saying her grand comeback helps the sale this time (which basically is just ignoring other factors and focus on the one that satisfied our narrative).

So it is a combination of all factors. I know PD fans who have bought this single. That the song is pretty good play a part too, I myself considered buying Negaigoto, 11gatsu and ST because they are all good songs. That they targeted holidays for HS dates definitely help, but they did it before so compared to prev singles it’s only 1 or 2 more popular dates and not that all days suddenly change from normal weekends to holiday, so this wont raise the sales for more than tens of thousands. Same with the gimmick, those are not completely new either. If sales continue to be good next single, then we can assume somewhat that HS plays the main part. But really, only mgmt can know.

 

I listened sandaruja dekinai koi on spotify, I hear laughing voice at near end of song. Any laughing scene at near end of full MV ?

 

Wow, I didn't expect this to sell THAT much - almost 1.4 million in the first day, and highest among post-election single - amidst the continuing decline post-Kami 7 and all the shenanigans (missing Jurina, but she's coming back!) and other tidbits (e.g. Produce 48, BNK48) that led up to today...

 

Spoiler

Like you said, Jurina oshi's won't buy as much. So they are not the source that contributes much in the sales success. Just because it's (insert member name) (insert rank) song, the numbers tells us not even other SKE fans themselves are contributing much into the sales (whom supposedly be the biggest winner of SSK), the whole group only amassed a total 90 slots out of the 1054 slots sold out in whole 48G total sales. In which NGT (the 2nd/3rd winner of SSK) only had 62 slots sold outs and thus are the fewest in the 48G of this single. Not dissing anyone here, just talking about the stats and numbers. (So chillax with the dislikes J oshis, P48 peeps and FF.)

Also the reason why P48 fans and BNK fans won't have that much of an impact in buying the single is because they are all foreign fans after all.
I can't think why would anyone living outside Japan buy 1000x CDs if they can't use their HS ticket? Of course, I acknowledge there are overseas people who are capable in bulk buying and very well spending the HS tickets in Japan with their oshi.
But honestly do you think these people are a formidable forces than the local wotas who would actually have a bigger impact on the overall sales? I don't.
It's still the local wotas from T4, Eitos, HKT and STU (I want to count NMB but I think they did so-so) who are contributing the bulk of these sales and the rest are supposedly "the other factors":

Such as new super stars from bustling 16th gen, a few rising on the horizon D3's, pure individual contribution like Yahagi Moeka, Yukirin, Sakura, Sasshi, Dasu, Mirurun, Gatanee powerhouses + maybe intangible influence gains of P48 hype > BNK fans post-hype for the two members ranked in > possibly maybe perhaps the media attention of Jurina absents somehow sparks people interest in buying this single on chara-ani?? etc.

Not to mention if you check back the sales rounds record they have boosted the amount of slots for popular members at least 3 times, with a total of 181 slots (which with conservative guessing each slot having 500 sales then that is 90500 secured sales increased at maximum potential which is just icing on the cake).

The real reason why this single did so well is simple, it's the sheer amount of HS slots offered in this single. That's right 4761 slots. And don't forget this is just accounting the theater edition, not including the regular editions which also counts into the total sales on oricon or billboard.

Sentimental Train 1054/4761 slots sold out ==> 1,394,356 sales (so far)

Teacher Teacher 2475/5971 slots sold out ==>1,817,518 sales
Jabaaja 454/4832 slots sold out ==> 1,172,399 sales
11 gatsu no Anklet 1139/3788 sold out ==> 1,129,524 sales
#Sukinanda 1080/3777 slots sold out ==> 1,129,165 sales
Negai Goto Mochigusare 1,940.3/6,884.7 slots sold out ==> 1,392,231 sales

Basically I'm saying any single that offers over 4000 HS slots is automatically a 1 mill sales. It don't matter if the sold outs are more or less at this threshold point because even if we would have to assume that not even one person from the whole group sold out a single slot but just manages to reach a ~50% sales rate then (4000 slot x 500 sales = 2,000,000 x 0.5) would be already 1 mill. This hypothesis formula has been proven pretty solid and consistent imo by Muranokuma single after single, and not many talked about it except for me endorsing it for the last 3 singles. So I am not surprised this single why it is easily over 1 mill at all and even much sure it would be more than it's predecessors before because the increased sold out slots that is securely confirmed in the sales round.

"Good song" as a factor would never play a big part in contributing sales number of the first day because no one even would have listened or watched to all the preview contents (Type A ~ Theater) until it is released like 2 weeks ahead or so (B-sides not in full MV ver either, unless on ANN radio) before the flying get day. This could be a good argument in the later accumulating sales dates, and in the case if it is actually "good" at all. Therefore it's obviously all about the HS events and gimmicks such as special stages, live concert events etc. And honestly I won't believe anyone would bulk buy this single 1000 times or 100 times or 10 times even just because it has "good" songs.

Peace~

 

great sales~

as for the songs, I'm definitely in love with UpcomingGirls. Their song is the best for the entire single to me. I liked UnderGirls as well and Showroom, but UpcomingGirls blew it away for me. And the MV is really nice too. Next Girls definitely got the short end of the stick, their song is really not good lol. And that song with Yui centering (forgot the drama name) is also not good, but two bad songs out of 8 is not bad for a single tbh.

Ranking: upcoming>>>>>>showroom>>>undergirls=sentimental train>>>>>>future girls=the new ranking 10th year group one lol>>>>>>>>>next girls=drama song (they're both equally bad lol).

 

Great number. Nice MVs. Nice songs. Pretty much good single. but not something special for me. Just Nice! Really nice.

 

As mario has explained, looking beyond HS sales for these numbers is a bit naive.
First day is basically 99% of theatre editions, so of course an increase in the slots would mean an increase in the sales.

What I find surprising is that they have sold in one day what would be the total for other singles.

Now... if the single has some charting power and reaches the 1.5M mark or so, one could think there are other factors helping the single (P48, Jurina press, good song, etc.) so we'll just have to wait and see.

Forget the international sales, Oricon doesn't count those.

 

10,015 units sold for the 2nd day
===
Iiwake maybe 13.840
Heavy rotation 68.439
Flying get 113.656
Gingam check 107.399
Koisuru fortune cookies 81.300
Kokoro no placard 57.799
Halloween night 26.205
Love trip 32.319
#Sukinanda 20.674

 

wew... the biggest drop ever..
yeah still 1,4M no need to worry

 

Well I was only saying that there is a number of factors, and I’ll wait to see which how much each of them contribute to the sale. And I agree that HS is the real deal here, I just want to mention that it is not all the work of HS.

As for what Trinu said, international sale count because many oversea fandoms buy through shops for wota and not directly. But I admit these CDs are not part of first day sale.

 

To make my point short and clearer...we should give credit to where it's due appropriately. If you still think otherwise then I guess I would have to leave it at this.