[GENERAL] The Sakamichi Series group thread

I used to think Nogi's under system is very unfair. But really the grass do look greener on the other side

 

On a positive note, tonight we have all the new gen reveals!

 

Yes, the circumstances were different. Nogizaka debuted as the official rival of AKB whereas Keyakizaka was Nogi's sister group. That would influence an idol fan's perception of the group. I would think AKB fans would've been slightly skeptical on this 'rival' wondering if Nogizaka could rise to the challenge, and Nogi's early history of struggle suggests it was challenging. Nothing was given to Nogizaka, they had to earn it.

Nogizaka may have ridden on the predecessor's coattails, but they had to build up their own fan base. This fan base was ready to see a sister group. Yeah, they could be skeptical, too, as why need another Nogizaka-type group, but overall it was more accepting of a new group, that is going to be Nogi's sister. Keyakizaka was going to be comrades with Nogizaka and such, they were greatly accommodated. They pretty much started with so much better resources -- resources created with the success of Nogizaka.

 

Yeah, I've made a couple really long posts about the theory and breadcrumb trail of AkiP forcing Hirate perma-center onto Keyaki management.

I'm curious about

>I can show his interview together with his reasoning in all 2 group+ Keya history

though. Is there more stuff out there? Hehe.

But for stuff like decisions about graduations and graduation events (and now the exit of Nagasawa), it's hard for me to directly blame AkiP at this point, so in my wording, I used management only. I can of course indirectly blame AkiP, since by him forcing the perma-center policy, everything else in the group suffers. But without further evidence, I can't place direct blame on AkiP for what I think are underachieving graduations of Neru, Nagasawa, etc. But I'm comfortable with placing indirect (and ultimate) blame on AkiP.

Also, what did you mean by

>Keya fandom to downplay management

I just didn't really understand what you meant.

If anyone is curious, here is a translation of an excerpt of an interview with Tsunku in the current April 2020 issue of EX Taishuu (the cover of which is Endo Sakura lol). He talks a little bit about Hirate and center vs perma-center. Basically he says that AkiP does like the perma-center policy.

 

Cmiiw, as far as I remember, there is no grad concert or such in Nogi first 3 year after debut. If I'm not mistaken, the first one who get concert was Nagashima Seira on 2015(or early 2016?). Maybe, Keya + Hinata mngmnt use similar formula?

 

@Rover one almost reaching their peak when entering their 5th year, one is collaps before celebrated their 4th anniversary while only releasing one single on their 3rd year. It's should've tell us which one is more succesful when entering their 5th year.

 

Doubtful it's the same formula. I was going to mention the early Nogi graduations as similar with the 'low key' graduations in Keyakizaka, but the circumstances are different. Early Nogi grads came before Nogi hit their peak and were during Nogi's uncertain times. Plus, also the Nogi grads weren't the most popular. The 'low key' graduations from early Nogizaka were due to the group not being as popular at the time.

Nagashima Seira's grad concert was part of an Under's concert series. Mai Mai's was part of the Summer tour. If Keyakizaka had more touring activities, they may have given some of the graduating members concerts. As it is, there aren't many opportunities for a Keyakizaka grad concerts.

Does the management blaming extend to Memi's and Iguchi's graduation in Hinatazaka?

 

Hashimoto and Nishino's grad con was a part of Birthday Live

 

Yeah, one of the major points of my argument is that Neru was a super important member (that's why I made the Nanamin comparison). And also, like @Generic_User explained, you can't really compare it to early Nogi when the group wasn't that huge in success yet. Fukagawa Mai was probably the first grand send-off from Nogi.

They can always do something. If they can't attach it to a concert tour, just do a smaller one-time concert somewhere, I don't know. Hell, why not delay Neru's graduation 2 months and have the Tokyo Dome concert be a quasi-Neru graduation concert, like Nogi did at Tokyo Dome with Marika and Himetan. I don't know, I'm not knowledgeable on the groups' concert tour schedules

 

Maybe, but I still think you can argue for both sides.

Nogi has had a fairly steady climb and by their 5th year they had multiple exclusive models, tv appearances. with fairly successful singles. The members have also branched into other areas of entertainment and were more recognized. But Keyaki rose very quickly due to being Nogi's sister group and having better resources as @Generic_User said. Keyaki also maintained their success with several hit singles, even if it was during a relatively short time. During this time, Keyaki's songs were more popular with the general public. And Keyaki didn't suddenly lose everything when they didn't have a single during 2019, they might've fallen but they still have a lot of fans.

Also I don't think Keyaki has "collapsed", they might be on the verge but not yet. With the recent graduations and the addition of more 2nd gen members, and their documentary, we'll see how management salvages the situation.

 

Having a regular set of concerts makes it easy for a member to plan graduation. Nogi has its Birthday Lives and the summer tour and on occasion, their Under concerts. All of which allow for a member to kind of point to one of these and have it be an informal grad concert (if you're one of the lesser members) or a full blown grad concert like Nanamin's and Nishino's. It also means that the production company is more experienced at putting on a concert.

The uncertainty around Keyakizaka's schedule, the lack of singles, make it difficult plan for a member's graduation. I'm not saying it can't be done, but it's like they're not use to it. I am with everyone and I wish they would do more for their graduates. While not a full blown grad concert, something other than the quiet endings they have been getting.

 

@Rover we're talking about entering their 5th year. Also i've read this general public popularity arguments before, and for me, it's more or less is just a myth. You measured gp popularity of a song with having more mention on twitter or more viewers on yt, but i'll put my bet that 80%-90% people who do that is a fans of their respective group.

 

@sambelteri12
I'm a little confused on what your argument for Nogi is. I understand that you believe Nogi was more popular entering their 5th year, but you haven't given me info backing your argument.

I disagree with your opinion on the general public popularity being a myth. Keyaki's songs seem to be known to the public than the group itself, with people being able to name more songs than members (which I think isn't necessarily bad, but also not good). Even if we ignore social media numbers, we can look at single sales and see that it took Keyaki 3 years to reach 1 million in sales (Garasu wo ware in 2018) while it took Nogi 6 years (Influencer in 2017). You can also argue these are due to fans, which is fine, but this argument can be made against Nogi. Nogi was extremely popular due to the number of fans they accumulated over the years. Nogi was more known to idol fans than the general public. While members had solo projects, I would argue that their fans allowed them to do so (which is normal). So we take out the factor that is fan activity. With Keyaki's system limiting media appearances that's not their weekly variety show, with only Hirate and Neru making appearances here and there, we can only measure the group's popularity to general public knowledge of the group in general. Keyaki has the upper hand here because of the popularity of their music.

We can also base it solely off of single sales, with Keyaki winning again.

However if we base it off of media appearances, member recognition and just the number of jobs in general, Nogi would win.

If we base it off of number of fans, even though Keyaki has a lot of fans, I believe Nogi would win here. After all Nogi was starting to enter their peak years in 2016, and Keyaki hasn't done much since 2018.

My point here is that you can successfully argue for both sides. One group steadily rose in popularity over the years while the other rose very quickly but simply remained stagnant, whoever is on top is debatable.

 

I'm pretty sure Silent Majority's karaoke popularity was the highest of any Sakamichi song by far. Fukyouwaon also has a lot of buzz, though that might be more because of its dance and kohaku, I'm not sure. I don't know about other Keyaki songs, though.

I don't know of some other measure of general public popularity of a song that cancels out the effect of hardcore fans other than karaoke, which is the only measure I can think of that does that (since there's a limit to how many times a hardcore fan can go and pay karaoke to sing a song on repeat lol).

 

I mean you can also use random interviews of people, but yeah, karaoke is a pretty solid metric (even more than I thought it would be lol).

 

Silent Majority has 143M views versus Influencer's 60M.... it's among the most viewed Japanese music videos (top 25) *plus* its region-locked unlike AKB. you really can't argue this is just fan power, SaiMajo was a bonafide hit. The only people who get these kind of views nowadays are stars like Kenshi Yonezu. Also as the people above me have said, karaoke ranks support its popularity as well.

I pretty much agree with everything @Rover says, Nogi has the upper hand with members but Keyaki wins in terms of song recognition.

 

We're talking about successful year so the best way to measure would be Revenue

2016 Nogi - 19 senbatsu plus 16 under girls ( Total 35 members)
2018 Keyaki - 22 Kanji plus 20 Hiragana (Total 42 members )
- the myth that nogi have advantage in members is proven false

Music Related Revenue from Oricon
2016 Nogi - 7.4 Billion Yen
2018 Keyaki - 4.1 Billion Yen

 

I mean, raw numbers like that are meaningless without context, no? Is that just including accumulated sales from singles released in 2016/2018? Is concert revenue included? If the former, Nogi released 3 singles + 1 album in 2016 while Keyaki only released 2 singles in 2018. If I'm anything, I'm super impressed that Keyaki managed to sell 41 bill yen in music revenue with just two singles. I think that comparison would only be fair if the two groups released the exact same number of singles/albums, DVDs and Blu-rays (and whatever else contributed to that number). Otherwise, it just becomes a contest of who had more opportunities (a management-led decision) to sell music than anything else.

In fact, it'd probably be more fair to compare the sales of the 2016 Nogi / 2018 Keyaki singles side-to-side but HS events heavily skew the numbers and like you said, Keya had more members due to Hiragana and probably more slots.

Keya's Glass no Ware! was also actually really popular in JP; it was third only to Lemon & U.S.A. on Billboard's yearly Hot 100 chart, which takes into account multiple criteria like streaming, downloads, radio, sales, etc. to measure the public popularity of a song.

--

And since the discussion kind of went over there, I think any direct comparison between the two groups on a success level, regardless of which year, isn’t a topic worth discussing (or fighting over, as that’s usually the result that follows). Keyaki jumped to fame since their debut but Nogi had a relatively slow, steady climb to the top, where they remain today. Their debut circumstances were different, people have different opinions when it comes to what "success" actually entails, and most importantly, the two groups honestly have nothing in common aside from the fact that they're both AkiP-produced idols. I would say, Nogi's image (beautiful, stylish, trendy, elegant, insert-superlative-) alone makes them super easily marketable, especially in a country like Japan. The group met the entire formula for success, and I mean that in the best way possible, management really hit the jackpot with Nogi. Keyaki, as an AkiP-produced group, just gave off a very experimental sense - the whole perma-center and rotating senbatsu system, the super long time it took for them to get a second gen, their overall music style, and even their military-like uniforms. I don't doubt that their "idols-who-never-smile" concept restricted their opportunities to branch out into other fields.

I agree. The fact that there are other members (Shiho, Kyoko, Mirei, Hina, etc.) that are super capable of taking over center is what will puzzle me the most if Hinata continues the perma-Nao way. Keyaki was different in that Techi took most, if not all, of the spotlight since the very beginning (anyone remember those Yamaguchi Momoe comparisons?), and she made such a splash in the entertainment industry that management probably thought she was godsend for the group, never risking having another center. I think Hinata's situation is really different for the reasons you mentioned; Nao's great and she's definitely working for Hinata but replaceable from a business standpoint, and I think the majority of the fandom would agree.

Edit, corrected typos.

 

This had me thinking. What will happen to RoK (Keyaki Republic) without Te? They have talked about moving in a new direction, so this perma-center approach with a leader instead of the group's captain was the reason keya got Republic concert and it was a initiative from Te. She was basically the group's architecture with full of ideas. Enjoyed to work with staff on live staging and tracklist of chosen songs to perform. It did also made the group stagnant when other members were watching Te did everything for the group.

This does also tell something Yuuka wants the group to change when she discussed with Maiyan about individuality at Kouhaku.
https://twitter.com/toomuchidea/status/1235117179730710529?s=19

To me RoK represents perma-center show with the center's solo performance domination. Like what happened to Tokyo Dome as well. As for mngmt, they want to change too, when they are now in a situation to determine keya's new artistic direction. Not necessarily music style, but things I have mentioned.

Keya is in near collapse position right now so mngmt is trying to find a direction that digs them out of this hole. Yuuka talked about this on the livestream for 4th anniversary.
https://twitter.com/toomuchidea/status/1247033872849592321?s=19

I think something is going to be sacrificed. As of now, annila and summer tour are good enough. RoK worked for the time when they had a perma-center who also performed solo and no other member besides Neru was able to perform solo at RoK.

Nogi was never in this situation, as Conjyak has already explained in the Sakamichi thread about ownership, they were in good hands of 50% Sony and 50% Riverhill/AKS. Plus a captain who cared about the group from the beginning. Yuuka has already admitted her weakness. From Kanji Keyaki era she was thinking more about herself which put this group into the mess they are now in. A captain who thinks about herself is a sign of concern. Te has also explained she wanted to quit the group in 2017 but Yuuka insisted her to stay for a while. You can hear staff from the documentary that they asked the group if they can survive without Te. Everyone collapsed did they say, I don't know which year this was but I can't wait to watch the documentary.

 

Now, that's an exaggeration if I saw ever one. I always get the feeling from your posts that you tend to take things that you read online way too much at face-value. Techi obv did play a large role in RoK but she wasn't the group architecture(?) (did you mean architect?), and she wasn't the only one who contributed ideas bts. She didn't even contribute to any of the MC parts during the show so I have no idea why you're saying, "Te did everything for the group". Seriously misleading.

Uh, Keya's performed plenty of times in the past without Techi, the members have experience substituting center for her, and now with 2nd gen, they have plenty of members to put on a show. The group will survive without Techi. They'll have to rebuild themselves, might take them some time to establish themselves in the public again without their most recognizable face but it'll happen. Your dramatics can stop now.

THE HELL? Are you saying this shit off of some interview where Yuuka said something like, "I should've done more for the group"? Because that's just Yuuka for you, the super humble, sacrificial captain who always puts aside her personal feelings and desires for the sake of others (what the members have said numerous times about her since debut) & is always the first to apologize when something bad happens to the group. Don't twist someone's words of modesty into a shitty falsehood like that.

Seriously, shame on you for putting all the blame on Yuuka, that's gotta top the list of ridiculous things I've read from you on this forum. If anything, I've read COUNTLESS comments from J-nets saying that Yuuka is Keyaki's saving grace, the one trying her absolute best to salvage the group after troubles left by other members and management, and that even if they don't like Keyaki, they can't hate on Yuuka. And your example is just dumb. What kind of captain would be like, kthxbye, when another member talks about potential graduation? I've also never heard an insider say that Yuuka was the reason for Hirate delaying her withdrawal - the implication that Yuuka would "insist" on anything, especially when it came to Hirate, is something that's laughable to me - so is this another one of your cringy theories or something you grabbed from Bunshit or a gossip forum?


And your post (and I guess mine too) is way more suited for Keyaki Gen thread than here.