Single Nogizaka46 35th Single [Chance wa Byoudou] (2024.04.10)

I'm not convinced any graduating member has actually had all that that much power to get management to make decisions in senbatsu selection that they weren't inclined to do anyway.

The similarity in my opinion between this single and Shiawase no Hogoshoku isn't the "power" of Maiyan and Mizuki as individuals, it's about using the graduation of a prominent member as a symbolic last hurrah for the senior generation before passing on the baton. Before Shiawase a non 1st gen member had never centered a single other than air-drops, after Shiawase a 1st gen never centered another single that wasn't a grad song.

Whether that will be true again, and we won't see another 3ki center now that Mizuki's gone i don't know, but it's possible

 

That’s actually a really great point. I think the only possibility is that if there is a prominent Tie-in of some sort maybe Kubo can get a solo center. Besides that, I think that whenever a center isn’t a new push, it’s gonna be Endo, Kaki, or both.

 

I think HS/meguri wasn't the main indicator
if you look it carefully, Aruno had it better from those two and all recent under members for the last two singles that been disregarded

 

Satsuki and Ayamen has blogged about them being in under. slightly different tones but forward looking . won't be surprised if its one of them who will be centering under song. it's inevitable with all 3rd gen included, that some would drop down. Under live would be interesting with only 4th-5th gen in it.

 

Satsuki grew up as a Fan of 3ki
She understand the significance of this lineup from fan perspective

 

I still believe in 3rd Gen. I am delusional that Yoda will finally get that solo center, and I believe Kubo has at least another before her grad center. Yet, it is true that their days are numbered.

I thought Ayamen's was quite interesting and very much her. She's so happy-go-lucky. I dig her.

 

That is a good point. I'm not saying the center actually have a voice about who will be picked for senbatsu, it's a gift from management. But what categories does members need to get this special treatment? If they can give YAC a chance to send off Yamashita from senbatsu position, why can't they give Karin, Junna, or Kawago, she's a 1st gen, a chance? You can argue it's because Yamashita and YAC is genmates, but does Yamashita have a close relationship with other generation member better than with her genmates? I don't think so..

 

Don't waste your time moaning. We know how badly the management team used to manage the second generation. But if we look at it now, it is considered a development that will take care of or reward new generations better than before. should support It's not complaining about why it's not as bad as it was in the second generation?

Even if this single isn't a graduation single, There is a tendency for Ayati(and also Yakubo) will be chosen as a senbatsu as well Look at what's called the memory slot quota. with the past few single.

 

1st round of sales

3rd gen:
Hazuki: 0/30
Riria: 0/30
Kaede: 0/30
Tamami: 0/30
Ayano: 0/30
Reno: 0/15

4th gen:
Sakura: 3/30
Kaki: 1/30
Mayu: 0/30
Yumiki: 0/30
Saya: 0/30
Ayame: 0/30
Kuromi: 0/30
Rika: 0/30
Miyu: 0/30
Mio: 0/30
Runa: 0/30
Yuna: 0/25
Rei: 0/20

5th gen:
Ioki: 2/30
Teresa: 1/30
Nagi: 0/30
Aruno: 0/30
Nao: 0/30
Miku: 0/30
Sakura: 0/30
Satsuki: 0/30
Aya: 0/30
Hina: 0/30
Iroha: 0/15

 

Isn't the result bad？how is it compare to last single?

 

That's normal. Popular members will be sold out on the 2nd or 3rd round

 

Ioki's HS is very strong. The dark horse is sprinting fast, passing the other top 5ki. It's just a matter of time for her to center an A-side.

 

Yama said they still don't know the song for this single. Does it means they have not started the recording?

 

I figure you're talking about her latest blog (Yama blog 2024.02.25). I think you're correct when you say they haven't started recording. But hasn't that been the way for the last year? It's gotten to be ridiculous. It's all crammed into the final weeks. I hope it doesn't end up feeling rushed like the last single.

 

Yes, that blog post. I just realized Nogi has not released anything after the Senbatsu announcement when I watched the Hinata announcement, single teaser, and even the photo concept released much faster. That is surprising, tbh.

 

Isn't it really calm nowadays? Is there any additional info / promotion for this single?

 

2nd round of sales

3rd gen:
Hazuki: 0/30
Riria: 0/30
Kaede: 0/30
Tamami: 0/30
Ayano: 0/30
Reno: 0/15

4th gen:
Sakura: 30/30 (+27)
Kaki: 30/30 (+29)
Mayu: 12/30 (+12)
Saya: 10/30 (+10)
Yumiki: 3/30 (+3)
Ayame: 0/30
Kuromi: 0/30
Rika: 0/30
Miyu: 0/30
Mio: 0/30
Runa: 0/30
Yuna: 0/25
Rei: 0/20

5th gen:
Nagi: 30/30 (+30)
Teresa: 26/30 (+25)
Aruno: 23/30 (+23)
Miku: 20/30 (+20)
Ioki: 18/30 (+16)
Nao: 13/30 (+13)
Aya: 11/30 (+11)
Sakura: 9/30 (+9)
Satsuki: 7/30 (+7)
Hina: 0/30
Iroha: 0/15

 

The release date has been postponed to 4/10 for 'production reasons':
https://www.nogizaka46.com/s/n46/news/detail/100148?ima=2455

 

The same date as Hinatazaka 11th single. Interesting.

 

That's now been postponed too but with no new release date:
https://www.hinatazaka46.com/s/official/news/detail/R00258?ima=0000