[3/11] Earthquake & tsunamis in Japan (all x48 are ok)

I think the biggest problem is, regardless of what the experts say, the media take the catchy buzzwords like "meltdown", "radiation" etc and plaster them all over the headlines. The media is hungry for the worst-case-scenario because that drums up fear, which gives them a bigger audience. "NUCLEAR DISASTER IMMINENT" sells more papers than "NUCLEAR DISASTER POSSIBLE BUT WE'LL WAIT AND SEE DON'T STRESS JUST YET".

Another reason is that #1 the Japanese don't like to speculate, they want to give facts, and #2, the nuclear industry doesn't deal in speculation, because it scares people. So they're being ultra-strict with what they tell people, only the facts. So people are guessing and estimating and doing what they can to come up with something new to sell in a news story.

At the moment, the way I see it is-

1) There is a chance things will cool down, no problems. This chance is reducing the more problems pop up.

2)There is a chance one or more meltdowns will occur. This leads to three potential situations.

2.1) Meltdown occurs, the containment dome does its job, a little bit of radiation escapes but the exclusion zone ensures the public is safe. This, IMO, is the most likely outcome at the moment. Worst thing that happens is workers might be exposed, hopefully they'll be ok.

2.2) Meltdown occurs, the containment dome is damaged, a lot of radiation escapes. The exclusion zone protects against any immediate deaths but people down wind (last I saw the wind pointed out to the pacific so no big issue) need to stay indoors and be a bit careful for a few days. Given everyone is currently in "disaster mode" due to the earthquakes/tsunami, a lot of people will already be taking precautions that will be protecting them (stocking up on supplies, not at work etc).

2.3) Meltdown occurs, hell breaks loose as the containment dome fails and a ton of radiation escapes, drifting its way to a major population centre. Severe radiation near the plant kills quickly, while airborne radiation exposure creates long-term health problems for people who haven't taken precautions, and maybe those who have. Given we haven't heard of any dome failure, I find this outcome the least possible. But the media will constantly talk about it because it will sell the most papers. If you pay attention to the questions the interviewers ask, they pretty much try and corner experts to speculate on this happening.

I think the speculation that radiation will reach China, USA, Australia etc is totally unfounded because it's based off Chernobyl, which didn't have a containment dome, and had an extremely violent steam explosion to drive it caused by graphite in the core, which these reactors do not have.

I'll also add that the main cause of radiation poisoning in any event is radioactive iodine being released from the reactor and floating through the air, being breathed in by people. It then builds up in a person's thyroid gland (which loves to suck up iodine) and possibly cause cancer later in life. However, the potassium iodide that is being given out as a precaution is not radioactive, and if a person consumes it, the thyroid will soak it up instead of the radioactive iodine, letting the bad stuff pass through the body instead of being absorbed. This will only protect from this particular radioactive substance, which is the most common airborne type. Being near the reactor could get you a body full of far more serious radiation (eg gamma radiation, which will go straight through clothes) that no pill can save you from.

And I'll say again, the media loves saying things like "radiation is xx times above normal", that doesn't give you any scale. Flying on a plane gives you xx times more radiation above normal, eating a banana gives you xx times more radiation, etc. Just because there is radiation doesn't mean it'll hurt you. Our skin protects us from virtually all radiation, in a serious situation we just have to be careful of what we eat/drink/breathe. Fortunately the Japanese love those face masks to ward off germs and those will help no end.

TL;DR media is beating up the situation. Small chance everything will be alright, large chance everything will be alright long term (but people will need to be cautious in the short term), small chance things will be pretty bad, virtually no chance of it being even worse than the tsunami.

 

That's the point, they're aiming to accumulate that much money to donate. It's not just AKB cash, it's donations from fans too.

 

I'm looking, but I can't find evidence of this upgrade to a lvl 6. I know the French wanted it upgraded from the 4, but the IAEA don't mention it on their facebook page.

Their most recent report-

I was linked to a good article showing that it's pretty impressive the plants have done as well as they have (a good summary up to the 14th), and a more plain-English version of Tuesday's events here.

btw, I mixed up iodine and iodide in my previous post, correcting it now. It should be noted that radioactive iodine, the main source of radiation from any potential hazard, is only radioactive for a few days at the most, so if worse comes to worse, people have to stay inside and drink bottled water for a few days and they'll be safe. Obviously we don't want things to come to that, but it's certainly less scary than the media's ideas of roaming radioactive clouds of death terrorising the world...

 

Before I go to bed (it's 2am now ) I'll leave a warning that there is a hoax SMS going around the Philippines saying radioactivity has reached there.

edit: Watanabe Entertainment donates 100 million yen, will have charity auctions; Horipro does stuff too

Edit again: Tokyograph article on AKB donating the 500million yen, says it's from all groups involved + AKS + Aki-P's own agency...? (What's that?) since all the groups are involved I imagine that means money is coming from each of their management agencies (Yoshimoto, Pythagoras etc). So it's not just money out of AKB48's pocket.

 

AKB would only get a tiny fraction of that, 10% at best (probably not). But that's a discussion for The "discussing the real world behind Japanese music" thread.