Event / Concert 32nd Single Senbatsu Sousenkyo

An excellent post. All of these observations are so spot on.

Pesonally, I expect Sasshi to drop significantly, I'd say down to #10 or #11. I can see Paruru or Yui landing between #11 and #16. Yui seems to be a bit under Paruru in management's eyes, but I think she will pass Kitarie this year and outrank Paruru. Its hard to tell with Paruru wota though.

NMB is like a dark horse in this election. Last year they only had 5 rank. Aina will be gone, but I'm almost certain Riho, Fuuko, Keiichi, and/or Momoka will rank. Expecting Nana and Maachun to jump into the lower 30s.

But nothing is as curious as HKT. Sakura is a shoe-in, and Murashige and Haruppi are also highly likely. Mio and Meru I don't imagine will rank honestly, but if they were to it would probably be in the 40s or 50s. I can't see them doing better than Future Girls.

Still, it takes away from AKB's babies that didn't rank. Like Karen! I'm worried she won't make it this year because HKT and NMB are like a storm cloud brewing for her. If she doesn't rank this year I'm worried management might hold off on giving her a push which she totally deserves. I'm not even an oshi or hers, but she does have an incredible captivating voice. Its as if she sings with her heart (haha I'm getting poetic)

But I agree: Watch out for Paruru, the Namba 7 plus a couple, and HKT. I just feel bad for the girls who were on the cusp last year. I really hope to see Mikiti or Nishinishi rank again.
Also, we can expect a huge jump for Harugon and a bit for Akicha too. Senbatsu will be a fierce competition this year.

 

The website for the election is up.

http://www.akb48.co.jp/sousenkyo/32ndsingle/index.php

So... we'll see in real time who enters in the election. FUN!

 

1-Kome is 1-Kome, BBQ is getting in and grabbing that first registration....

Anyway,

That's pretty much my list of main attractionfor this year as well.

The only thing different, is that I'm actually looking past HKT KKS and looking at entire HKT in general as I will not surprise that they gain more seats than NMB or could even give SKE a run give the number of players they are losing.

I'm also keeping eye on ex-T4 member like Oba and Ricchan especially the latter who also receives a huge fan boost.

Senbatsu battle should be pretty much set. Assuming Tomochin and Kasai are out and Miichan like to drop out, the three spots are basically Milky, Paruru, Sayanee's to take. Realistically only Umeda's spot would probably be up for grab unless Kitarie surprising drop from her usual 13th spot, which I doubt.

The non-senbatsu battle 17-64, should be very interesting to see, especially toward the bottom half.

 

The election's site is up now. The list of participants is going to update as soon as members apply.

http://www.akb48.co.jp/sousenkyo/32ndsingle/index.php

 

Kaotan is the first to enter...

if she ranks again, will she be promoted finally? lol

Wonder how long until we get more people up there.
lol

 

I think its likely that the SKE promotions will happen before the election. They have 9 team girls leaving. Leaving so many spots open (especially 4 spots on S) is just a dumb move. They have over 30 KKS, and there are a lot who are ready. I'm expecting the promotions at Budokan (SKE only concert). If they don't do it then... then bad move

 

Hopefully, she gets promoted soon.

I can't wait for this. I'll be pulling another all-nighter it looks like. It's all good, though, because it will be during summer break this time.

 

im so lucky i have NOTHING to do
(got sick, out of school, not working)
I can have whatever sleep schedule (or lack thereof) that I want~~~~~ =D

I'm just gonna stalk the website. refresh every few minutes-----too crazy???? lol

 

Bet some girls wait until the very last minute to enter to keep us in suspense

 

^
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

lol I have a feeling you're right but I hope you're wrong... lol

---

It's still just Kaotan... about an hour later since I first saw the site...

I've been just sitting here for an hour. lol what a productive life. =P

 

still just 1 was already registered

Spoiler

i'm refresh that page every time [whew]

 

Yeah, I can't imagine Rie dropping past 16, she's had too good of an exposure ever since last year's election to drop too far down.

The whole Mayu and Yuko rivalry is definitely going to be interesting, as Yuko has a strong fanbase but Mayu has been deemed as the next center of AKB by many people, which is going to add in a ton of votes for her. I hate to say it, but I think Yuki will remain at 3 for the third time because the battle between Yuko and Mayu will be too strong for her to intertwine with.

 

It's not like they're doing 'first come first serve' or something
Don't worry I'm almost sure all the regular members are participating, except of course those who graduating or maybe Yuko
You don't have to spam your F5 like crazy the whole day

 

Exactly, The only way I can see Rie drop is that she got pushed down by Yui, Sayanee, Milky, or Paruru.

I highly doubt Ume-chan can overtake her especially based on HS and general view her popularity has declined especially following a few questionably performance on variety, specifically that Run-For-Money SP where she double-timed other members purely due to their look and TV image.

That way, considering that the spots immediately below her are now all pretty much vacant, that last senbatsu spot could be interesting. I'm pretty much looking at a 3-way battle between Ume-chan, Akicha, and Mocchi.

 

You expect Mocchi to make the top 16? I'd love that but I feel like it's not so likely... Doesn't she normally rank around 20-something-ish anyway? iirc one time she beat Akicha's rank but that was a while ago... lol
But like... I feel like her push isn't enough compared to some other people... It'd be nice if I was wrong about that though. lol

 

Aih~ Subarashii~~~

 

@xinchun: Mocchi's handshake sales have been looking really good lately, which was the same sign that Yukirin was going to increase way back then so don't dismiss the idea of her in the Top 16 yet. Personally, she's one of the girls I'm going to be looking out for this election. It'd be great if lightening could strike twice for the FK members in that regard. However, I'm in the camp that believes Akicha will indeed drop again the question is by how much.

 

Hmm I see, I don't pay much attention to handshake sales (and tbh I should lol) but if that's the reasoning then I guess it makes sense...
I guess we'll have to see exactly what happens (and hope Mocchi will run, I don't seen why not but you never even know with anyone anymore) lol
I still think the competition may be too rough but if it's even a possibility I won't give up hope completely.
Crazy things can happen for sure... They've been known to happen. XD

---

btw
still only Kaotan confirmed
orz
I'm still here, just refreshing
...somebody help me I need a better hobby. lol

 

@xinchun

She's usually 21-23, but look at those who usually above her.

Take last year for example, the 5 above her (17-21): Akicha, Sayanee, Milky, Sayaka, Amina and the one directly below her is Paruru.

Paruru, Sayanee andMilky are gimmes to make Senbatsu. Sayaka will most likely following her decline last year, and probably like Masuda last year dropping down to mid-late 20s (the fact Mocchi stayed 22 last year is pretty impressive already). Amina seems to be in decline as well, especially comes to HS slots.

Compare to them Mocchi seems to still be on a rise based on how ridiculously fast her HS slots were selling out last year, even faster than her usual performance and last year she was basically one of top 5-10 in AKB as far as her sellout rate goes. IfI remember correctly, in GC or UZA she even sold out her slots faster than Mayuyu and I don't think she was even once behind Tomochin, Yui or Paruru and other low senbatsu last year and is now a guarantee 2/3 round sellout. With theater editions now in play, I can see her getting a huge boost out of it compare to other non-senbatsu members.

EDIT:

SugarYumYum beat me to it.

And actually I won't be surprise if Ricchan, or one of SKE tops like Churi or Yuria makes a run for it either, but Ricchan is a bit raw and was unranked last year (though could pull out a Yui like 2 years ago) while Churi and Yuria and SKE in a whole still seem to be more standing pat to me than anything.

 

How high do you guys think Ricchan could go? Sure she has had a big push for an unranked girl but she's kinda just the face of undergirls right now right? Not in senbatsu or anything so... Do you guys think it'll be as big a jump as Yui? I have a feeling she will probably rank somewhere but...