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TV / Radio AKB Love Night Koi Koujou (2016/4/20~)

Discussion in 'AKB48 News & Releases' started by Togasaki, Mar 26, 2016.

  1. sscrla

    sscrla Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2015
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    Takayanagi Akane
  2. moonlit

    moonlit Kenkyuusei

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    Oshimen:
    mutuotomu
    so, when are the results going to be announced?
     
  3. sscrla

    sscrla Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

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    Dec 27, 2015
    Oshimen:
    Takayanagi Akane
    結果発表は9月28日予定
    [Google version: The results announced plans on September 28!]

    From the same (no longer voting) page under news:
    次回、9月28日(水)の放送はいつもよりも5分繰り下げの、深夜1時46分からのスタートとなります。
    [Google version: next time, the broadcast is moving down always 5 minutes than the September 28 (Wednesday), will start from the middle of the night 46 minutes 1 o'clock]
    http://www.tv-asahi.co.jp/akb-love/actress/

    Set your clocks now! :)
     
  4. xcrossfacekillahx

    xcrossfacekillahx Kenkyuusei

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    hondahitomi
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    crossfacekillah
  5. sscrla

    sscrla Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

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    Takayanagi Akane
  6. Rurouni

    Rurouni Upcoming Girls Stage48 Donor

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    Sep 15, 2015
    This info is from http://akb48taimuzu.livedoor.biz/archives/49656904.html (which is from 2ch), I don't know where they got it. Maybe it was in the show? the homepage? I can't read Japanese. Let's assume that this is true, because I want to talk about it :p

    *1位 渡辺(審査員2位/視聴者2位)
    *2位 山本(審査員1位/視聴者5位)
    *3位 島崎(審査員3位/視聴者3位)
    *4位 宮脇(審査員8位/視聴者1位)
    *5位 松井(審査員6位/視聴者4位)
    *6位 横山
    *7位 柏木
    *8位 山下
    *9位 北原
    10位 向井地
    11位 岡田
    12位 矢吹
    13位 木崎
    14位 白間
    15位 市川
    16位 上西
    17位 高柳
    18位 高橋
    19位 兒玉
    20位 大場

    If you look at the top five, the one in parentheses are (judge rank/viewer rank).
    So Mayuyu got both 2nd place from the judges and viewers.
    Anyway, the biggest discrepancy are from Sakura, which got rank 8 from the judges and 1 from the viewers. Also if you look at the top 5, all the viewers rank are in there. Paruru is unanimously no.3. Mayuyu manages to get no.1 because the disagreement between the judges and the viewers wota :)
    Personally I would like to see the judges top 10 (or more!). I want to know how the pro rank them. For the viewers rank, I think we can kinda guess how the rank would shape up.
     
  7. sscrla

    sscrla Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

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    Takayanagi Akane
    What is missing from the judges' ranks are 4, 5, and 7. So who do you think the judges put ahead of Sakura (of those not already listed)?

    It looks like they used equal weights with the judges being the tie breaker.

    Totals:
    4
    6 (Sayaka wins the tie breaker)
    6
    9
    10

    If this is correct, the judges' 4 had to be the fans' 7 or lower (if she were 6, the total would be 10 and the tiebreaker would have put her ahead of Jurina).
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2016
  8. Rurouni

    Rurouni Upcoming Girls Stage48 Donor

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    Since I haven't watch it all, I can't really comment who I think should rank based on the acting. I do want Naachan to rank high in the judges ranking. Judging from top 20, I think Yamashita Emiri might have high rank from the judges, unless those in Philippines voting for her. She certainly can't count on the wota votes, yet she is number 8.
     
  9. sscrla

    sscrla Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

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    If you think of who the fan favorites are, I would guess the judges ranked Naachan lower than the fans and Yuria higher than the fans, given that they are only two apart in the final results. I am assuming the fans would have put Naachan much higher than Yuria based on SSK and some recent threads.
     
  10. Rurouni

    Rurouni Upcoming Girls Stage48 Donor

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    Actually, I think those on 2ch are using the preliminary result (which is based on viewers vote) and extrapolate from that. Since the preliminary result was out on Sept 21st and voting ended on Sept 22nd, they probably assume that is the final viewers rank (which is likely, unless the votes are super close. Viewers had a week to vote). I'm relisting that preliminary result.
    1.Miyawaki Sakura
    2.Watanabe Mayu
    3.Shimazaki Haruka
    4.Matsui Jurina
    5.Yamamoto Sayaka
    6.Kashiwagi Yuki
    7.Kizaki Yuria
    8.Jonishi Kei
    9.Kodama Haruka
    10.Matsuoka Natsumi

    Also another data is the number of tweet support (I believe it is the number of scene retweet provided in the website)
    1.Shimazaki Haruka 16,030
    2.Watanabe Mayu 12,556
    3.Matsui Jurina *1,973
    4.Kashiwagi Yuki *1,313
    5.Kizaki Yuria *1.216
    6.Yamamoto Sayaka *1,204
    7.Mukaichi Mion **,398
    8.Miyawaki Sakura **,382
    9.Kitahara Rie **,295
    10.Takahashi Juri **,255
    11.Iriyama Anna **,176
    12.Sashihara Rino **,168
    13.Yokoyama Yui **,135
    14.Okada Nana **,108
    15.Suda Akari **,107

    Final result
    1.Watanabe Mayu
    2.Yamamoto Sayaka
    3.Shimazaki Haruka
    4.Miyawaki Sakura
    5.Matsui Jurina
    6.Yokoyama Yui
    7.Kashiwagi Yuki
    8.Yamashita Emiri
    9.Kitahara Rie
    10.Mukaichi Mion
    11.Okada Nana
    12.Yabuki Nako
    13.Kizaki Yuria
    14.Shiroma Miru
    15.Ichikawa Miori
    16.Jonishi Kei
    17.Takayanagi Akane
    19.Kodama Haruka
    20.Oba Mina

    So it is obvious that Yuria Kizaki got more viewers vote (at least vs Naachan), based on the prelim and the tweet support.

    Anyway, I don't know if they have told us about the formula, how is the weighting, etc, but if it is 50-50, then yes, Sakura definitely scored lower than 4th from the judges, otherwise she wouldn't be 4th. I don't know if it is 8th like in that link I posted previously tho.
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2016
  11. wlerin

    wlerin Upcoming Girls

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    Nothing is obvious without knowing what that tweet support means. I didn't see any Yuria tweets but I saw plenty in support of Naachan and other members, even when I searched for generic things like 恋工場. Also, Twitter is full of bots.
     
  12. Rurouni

    Rurouni Upcoming Girls Stage48 Donor

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    For exampel http://www.tv-asahi.co.jp/akb-love/story/0027/
    You chose one of the 4 scene you think is the most interesting in a story then tweet/facebook your choice. I believe it must be done from the site to register. Yes, bot may skew the result, but I don't think the number Yuria has right now is not because of bot. On the other hand, there are 2 person that I didn't list in the tweet thing, Takayanagi Akane and Jonishi Kei, simply because their number is ridiculous and unrealistic (150k!).
    Anyway, there are probably more tweet about Naachan story, but most of the tweet are not coming from that site. Basically a lot of people might be interested in it, but probably too lazy or uninterested to participate. My point is, from the data we have, it is likely that Yuria fans are more willing to participate in the actual event (by actively tweeting from the site and actually voting) vs Naachan fans. Combined with the preliminary viewer vote data (which was released in Sept 21 that put Yuria at no.7), at least from my point of view, it is obvious that Yuria fans are actively more interested in it (I don't rule out that they might use bot for the voting too, but I assume not).
    Although I said obvious, there are important things that we don't know, like the votes number and the judges number/rank. It might be that the votes are so close that a last day push can make a big difference in rank. But between assuming that Yuria got more votes vs Naachan turn it around on the last day (based on the preliminary votes), I think the earlier assumption is more likely.

    edit: basically we have 3 sets of data.
    1.Final ranking
    2.Preliminary ranking (which they said is purely from the viewers vote and released 1 day before the voting closed)
    3.Tweet/Facebook support (which don't affect the rank, but can indicate participation)
     
  13. sscrla

    sscrla Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

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    One point: the date of the data release is not the date of the data. The show was broadcast once a week, and they released data on the shows (and show days), 9/14, 9/21, and 9/28.

    Just as the final results released on 9/28 were the results from 9/22 (the last day to vote), the preliminary results released on 9/21 were the results from 9/16, the day after the voting started on 9/15. (The start of voting was announced on the 9/14 show after midnight, which made it 9/15 the way a lot of us count dates).

    When the preliminary results were posted on the website on 9/22, the heading was this:
    暫定順位発表!- 9/16時の視聴者投票の順位 -
    現在の視聴者投票の順位はご覧の通りです。最終結果はいかに!?

    The 9/16 is pretty clear, and as for the rest, google translate tells me these are the preliminary results.

    It may not matter in the analysis, but I have seen posts where people thought the preliminary results were up to the minute as of 9/21, and they weren't as far as I know, they were just the results of the first day (or two) of voting.
     
  14. wlerin

    wlerin Upcoming Girls

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    Twitter's search leaves a lot to be desired, but e.g. for the first of Yuria's 4 screens, 26 show up in search results, from a total of 7 accounts, 4 of which tweeted it once, and another of which tweeted it 15 times. The same high-volume tweeters also spammed the others, up to 5 times a day. By comparison Naachan's tweets only get about 3 results, once from each account. These are only from the 20th and later, though. Keicchi's don't show up in significant volume, while Churi's have a similar spread but slightly lower volume than Yuria's.

    All that said I wouldn't put much stock in this particular metric. It's easily gamed, as evidenced by Churi and Keicchi's numbers, and poorly advertised (I voted and tweeted about it almost every day and didn't even touch those once). The voting itself on the other hand, while it could be gamed via proxies, perhaps, since there was no login involved, they probably have some protections against it, as evidenced by the fact Keicchi didn't win :p So you have a point there.

    It is interesting that so many high ranks in the preliminaries fell or disappeared in the final result. Yet another reason I wish we knew the full judges' rankings.

    edit: Or that could just be because the preliminaries were actually preliminaries like @sscrla says.
     
  15. Rurouni

    Rurouni Upcoming Girls Stage48 Donor

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    Well, I didn't know that. Thanks for pointing that out. I think most people mentioning the prelim result didn't write the fact about it is only till 9/16. They (the one making love night) shouldn't really do that (releasing prelim result a day before the final voting day) since it will just cause a confusion.

    Anyway, I think we know that Yuria is aspiring to be an actress. I think her fans know that. Maybe there are less Yuria fans voting for her, but if those fans are more enthusiastic about it, they might try a lot of ways to vote for her multiple times which might get her more votes. Looking at the ranking itself, the only strange result is Yamashita Emiri, because the other around her is much more popular.
    Probably I need to watch Emiri Love Night....
     
  16. MLG Faze Rain_Quickscope

    MLG Faze Rain_Quickscope Kenkyuusei

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    miyawakisakura
    I am surprise Sinigang is here.

    Like very!

    Ibang level na siya!

    Go Sinigang!
     

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