[DISCUSSION] Hope, Fear, and Predictions for Nogizaka46

Hope:

- 4th single to be another good one like their previous singles. Fresh & Unique.
- A concert tour around Japan. Or even better, as Sayurin suggested, an Asia tour.
- More theater shows like the one they did at PARCO.
- PARCO shows release as DVD set!!
- New interesting TV show to replace Romance! \(^_^)/
- More interaction with the 48 family. Maybe a Nogizaka vs. HKT thing ... 4th single vs. 1st single.
- Nogizaka 1/46 video game!!

My hope/prediction for the 4th single senbatsu lineup:

- Center: Ikuta Erika

- Shichifukujin: Ikoma Rina, Shiraishi Mai, Matsumura Sayuri, Hashimoto Nanami, Takayama Kazumi, Wakatsuki Yumi

- Senbatsu: Sakurai Reika, Nakada Kana, Hatanaka Seira, Hoshino Minami, Nishino Nanase, Saito Yuri, Fukagawa Mai, Inoue Sayuri, Saito Asuka

I kind of want Seitan to be in Shichifukujin ... but seeing how Kazumin got the Alice role two times ... feel like she will have a higher chance to be in Shichifukujin again.

 

Hopes:
The Zepp Namba/Nagoya concerts to be released on region-free bluray.
More Mayuzaka.

 

Hope - Sayuringo gets transfered to AKB48

 

Prediction senbatsu line up for 4th single

center - ikuta erika, ikoma rina, nakada kana
shichifukujin - takayama kazumi, matsumura sayuri, shiraishi mai, hashimoto nanami
senbatsu - sakurai reika, nishino nanase, ito marika, fukagawa mai, saito yuuri, hoshino minami, inoue sayuri, wakatsuki yumi, higuchi hina


my hope for senbatsu line up for 4th single

center - MATSUMURA SAYURINGO, HASHIMOTO NANAMIN (DOUBLE CENTER)
shichifukujin - sakurai reika, fukagawa mai, hoshino minami, nakada kana, shiraishi mai
senbatsu - ito marika, nishino nanase, takayama kazumi, ikoma rina, ikuta erika, wakatsuki yumi, kashiwa yukina, higuchi hina, nakamoto himeka

 

Prediction and Hope For 4th Single

Well, according to the parco result, the center can be 3 row which is Ikuchan, Kazumin, and Maiyan

As for the UG girls who will make it into senbatsu : Itou Nene, Higuchi Hina, and Kawago Hina [party]

and more surprise please ....

 

My Hope :

Ikuchan forever in Shichifukujin
Maimai forever in senbatsu

THEY DESERVE IT

 

Hope:

- Hoping their 4th single will sell more than 300,000 first week!! \(^_^)/

Fear:

- One day when Nogizaka gets too popular that the senbatsu members won't be on Nogidoko all the time just like how AKB senbatsu members rarely appear on AKBingo! anymore ... though I doubt that day will come any time soon ... =\

 

Ikuta being the center may only be a matter of time. Given the amount of fan support that she has(as seen during the PARCO stages), coupled with the fact that AKip did consider putting her as the center initially, it would be surprising if the NGZK46 management did not act on it. In fact, this is one of my hopes for Nogizaka46. I wish that happens at the 4th single.

Also, I would hope that girls like Wada and Ando can be promoted to senbatsu, especially Wada, who has never be in senbatsu at all. Ando is only in the first temporary senbatsu and was now trapped in UG. I hope that management would give them the shot.

 

Predictions:

- 2nd Gen auditions late 2013
- 7th single hits 300K in 1st week
- At least (2) more unexpected graduations in the next year (1 UG/1 senbatsu)
- Another AKB cameo/collab (1st- Acchan, 2nd-Sasshi, 3rd-Group collab with Mayu on her 2nd single, 4th-??? My bets on Marikosama )
- Spring musical/theater show
- Yuttan returns to senbatsu 5th single
- Mikumo enters senbatsu 5th or 6th single

Hopes:

- PARCO shows gets DVD/bluray release (and they feature all three: Ikuchan/Maiyan/Kazamin's Alices)
- Original dramas
- Less ugly, more stylish outfits
- Member specific videos continue for each single
- Hoshimina and Renarin drop from senbatsu (unless their popularity rises)
- MisaMisa becomes part of regular senbatsu (cuz it seriously makes no sense to me why she's UG)
- Wada enters senbatsu
- Mgmt changes it's mind and gives them a theater (please? PRETTY PLEASE???)

Fears:

- Mgmt stays stubborn, keeps trying to force feed the wota the girls they want to push and the group suffers
- Majisuka Gakuen 5: Nogizaka Edition
- Aki-P decides he's bored of them and disbands them prematurely
- More Mayuzaka46

 

One of my biggest fears as well ... *gulp*

Nogizaka sometimes feels like an experimental project for Aki-P that he can just throw it away when he's bored of it ... I fear that his heart is with AKB more than Nogizaka and that AKB is his true baby ... in the end, Nogizaka is just a project to help AKB further and nothing more .....

Well, I hope I'm wrong about that .....

 

^
Totally valid fears but I wouldn't have thought he would do that (maybe if they were in the same situation as SDN were). They are pretty successful thus far no?

 

I always thought it was his experiment to see if he could do away with the theatre and be just as successful. The theatre is hugely costly in time, money and resources, and places lots of demands on all his staff (the girls). Also, no need for KKS if you don't need understudies.

 

^Good day Jul3!
I agree with you that Nogizaka feels like an experimentation on Aki-p's part, at least it does for me too. But I always consider having theatre & stages as more of a strength than a baggage however... of course I never been to Japan & know very little about the functioning of a theatre, but here's how I see things.

Possible Pros of having Stages/Theatres:
- Steady Revenue: I am not sure about how much stage is performed per week & month unfortunately... (being a foreign fan these information are of little relevance... ), however, I heard that a ticket cost around $3,000 yen for a K stage, & that there's 240 seats in the AKB theatre. They are always sold out nowadays too. So that would equal $720,000 yen in revenue per day of performance, which I think is a pretty remarkable.

- Fan accumulation: Regular stages allows non-front-row members to gain fans even without spotlight imo. The more fans, the more revenue! (Through purchases to related products & hs tickets etc...)

- Salary Structure: I heard TakaMina herself saying that they are paid monthly salary! That is a long long long time ago however... but I don't think it should differ to much nowadays for regular members too anyways. If members are paid a regular monthly salary... not having stage performances is just lost revenue than! I don't think Nogizaka members are really a busy bunch anyways, & unders don't seems to have much to do unfortunately...

Potential Cons of Stages/Theatres:
- Upkeep: Revenue does not equal profit, & it is certainly possible that the revenue can be completely eaten away by salaries of members & staffs plus rent & etc. But the rough calculation of revenue is 3/4 a million! Certainly there's a lot of members... (e.g. AKB have around eighty-ish members I believe...?) but if they have enough performances + merchandises sales I think it is unlikely to have upkeep higher than revenue thou. I am assuming salary for more popular members will be higher too but I think this should be made up with their other works thou.

- Opportunity Cost: This I think is a more plausible consideration. Basically the idea is that theatres take away times from Aki-p & popular members to do other stuffs that make a lot more moneys! For example, maybe instead of having Jurina, Yuko, & Tomochin in threatre for a measly $720,000 yen minus upkeeps, Aki-p much rather they be shooting some magazines or commercials or doing some other stuffs that might net in more than a million! However I don't think there will be that many opportunity cost thou, as I don't think there will be that many magazine/commercial/etc works that would make stages a time burden. The three members can easily take a day off from performance to do other duties too (& there's a reason that Team A, K, & B now have upward to 22/23 members & a contingent of kks exist!) So even this reason is more likely imo than the above upkeep one, it still isn't really that plausible.

BUT Aki-p might be freaking tired of having to write sooo much lyrics for stages/theathres nowadays when he have the options to package them into singles & sold millions x $1,650 yen per single!
Now THA'S a real opportunity cost! (For Aki-p, that is, & if real, of course! Personal opinion this is.)

Anyways, all in all, it looks to me that theatres/stages are a real strength that propel the 48 franchises way above & beyond the competition. Of course there are many other factors that contribute to AKB's success, but I think stages/theatres are a really important factors. So I always feel that Nogizaka is at a loss for not having regular stages/theatres.

Personal opinions of course, critique & comments are welcomed!

 

I've just gotten into Nogizaka46. What I like about them is that they're so small and new and almost "indie" (no, I'm not a hipster!)

So I guess my fear is that Nogizaka will get more generations. Yeah, I actually don't want them to get more girls. Or if they do, stop at 46. I really only pay attention to AKB's older girls anyway, for Nogizaka it will be the same.

I'm predicting more AKB collaborations (how are they rivals if they're collaborating?)

I hope Ikomachan stays center. I really like Ikuta but Ikoma is my Nogizaka oshi. I know she's not as popular but I think she's perfect. I think Ikoma and Ikuta will eventually take Takamina and Acchan roles. Even though Ikuta looks a lot like Acchan, she seems to have the vocal power of Takamina, while Ikoma has the "not the most talented girl but mesmerizing" aura of Acchan.

 

i think it is great because it reminds me of early, simple AKB, you know, before they sold out.

 

This is an always hope and fear for Nogizaka. No one can predict it well.

 

There's a small of side of me with that what-if as "What if Nogizaka46 becomes a 48 sister group?"

I dunno bout that but I just wonder how will things be if that happened... [think]

 

IMO, they might wear like AKB and performed joint-concert with AKB but the thing is they don't need to be a AKB sister group to get where they are now. The relationship with rival-friends are more stronger than brothers and sister sometimes. That's just my personal opinion

 

Ahh I see what you saying... Wait- have they performed joint-concerts with akb before?

 

They performed in Sashihara Rino Produce Yubi-Matsuri. I'm not sure this can be counted as joint-concert though since there are other groups also involved such as Momoclo, Passpo , Bruno etc