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[DISCUSSION] Mousou Nogizaka46 Sousenkyou Prediction

Discussion in 'General Nogizaka46 Discussion' started by ohPomeloo, May 22, 2014.

  1. ohPomeloo

    ohPomeloo Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2013
    Oshimen:
    nishinonanase
    Who do you think will rank the top 16 in a Nogizaka46 sousenkyou? :)

    My prediction,
    1. Shiraishi Mai :1st:
    2. Nishino Nanase :2nd:
    3. Akimoto Manatsu :3rd:

    4. Hashimoto Nanami
    5. Matsumura Sayuri
    6. Fukagawa Mai
    7. Eto Misa
    8. Wakatsuki Yumi
    9. Sakurai Reika
    10. Ikuta Erika
    11. Takayama Kazumi
    12. Ito Marika
    13. Ikoma Rina
    14. Hori Miona
    15. Inoue Sayuri
    16. Nakamoto Himeka
     
  2. rust

    rust Kenkyuusei Retired Staff

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2012
    Twitter:
    Rusted_Van
    hmm I'm gonna do things a bit differently lol. I'm gonna make a Nogi-SSK guess based on the premise that each fans can only vote once! Maybe this can be done thro registrations or Principal voting, but I'm not gonna dwell on how it can be done. Under an AKB-esque system, there's a degree of volatility cuz each fans can vote to different amount, & one hyper-rich wota that is willing to spend-em-all can turn things upside down lol. Under such system, it might benefit Nogi-girls like Naachan or Manattan more than compared to say Maiyan. Reasons being that I still think Maiyan is most popular by fan counts, but she sold out HS slower cuz her fans are less committed, more casual than say compared to Naachan or Manattan. That is not to say there's not a huge number of fans for both, just that I still think their fan compositions are more deeper while Maiyan's is more broader.

    So here's my guesses~ /o/
    Gonna do up to 32 ranks.
    1. Shiraishi Mai :1st:
    2. Nishino Nanase :2nd:
    3. Hashimoto Nanami :3rd:

    4. Akimoto Manatsu
    5. Matsumura Sayuri
    6. Ikuta Erika
    7. Fukagawa Mai
    8. Sakurai Reika
    9. Eto Misa
    10. Wakatsuki Yumi
    11. Takayama Kazumi
    12. Ikoma Rina
    13. Hori Miona
    14. Inoue Sayuri
    15. Nakada Kana
    16. Ito Marika

    17. Saito Asuka
    18. Nakamoto Himeka
    19. Saito Yuri
    20. Kitano Hinako
    21. Nagashima Seira
    22. Kawago Hina
    23. Ito Nene
    24. Hoshino Minami
    25. Hatanaka Seira
    26. Higuchi Hina
    27. Noujou Ami
    28. Shinuchi Mai
    29. Wada Maaya
    30. Ito Karin
    31. Kawamura Mahiro
    32. Yamazaki Rena
     
  3. boffyee

    boffyee Kenkyuusei

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    Oct 10, 2010
    Oshimen:
    ikutaerika
    IKUTA ERIKA
     
  4. OSR48

    OSR48 Kenkyuusei

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    Indonesia
    Twitter:
    nogibabiez
    You guys don't include Matsui Rena?
     
  5. L4verra

    L4verra Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2013
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    ロサンゼルス
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    wadamaya
    Twitter:
    L4verra
    1. Nishino Nanase (senbatsu center)
    2. Shiraishi Mai
    3. Ikuta Erika
    4. Hashimoto Nanami
    5. Eto Misa
    6. Matsumura Sayuri
    7. Fukagawa Mai
    8. Akimoto Manatsu
    9. Wakatsuki Yumi
    10. Inoue Sayuri
    11. Sakurai Reika
    12. Hoshino Minami
    13. Matsui Rena
    14. Saito Asuka
    15. Hori Miona
    16. Ikoma Rina
    17. Takayama Kazumi (undergirls center)
    18. Ito Marika
    19. Hinako Kitano
    20. Nakamoto Himeka
    21. Saito Yuri
    22. Kawago Hina
    23. Hatanaka Seira
    24. Kawamura Mahiro
    25. Wada Maaya
    26. Nakada Kana
    27. Nagashima Seira
    28. Ito Nene
    29. Noujou Ami
    30. Shinuchi Mai
    31. Ito Junna
    32. Higuchi Hina
    If we're going by rankings on the NogiHouse app, this is probably what it's going to look like. But if we had the option to vote more than once, I'd probably be the bastard who powervotes Maaya in like that dude who bought like 5,000 CDs just to rank Yoshida Akari somewhere in the last sousenkyo election. Okay maybe I wouldn't be that committed (since I can't really shell out a lot of money at the moment), but I'd definitely vote for Maaya more than once if I had the chance.

    But since we're all agreeing that Maiyan, Naachan, Ikuchan or Manattan makes senbatsu, who's like the surprise, Sashihara Rino-esque member who just blows by everyone and surprisingly makes center?

    If I could make that Maaya, I'D DO IT.
     
  6. mb1619

    mb1619 Kenkyuusei

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    Apr 17, 2014
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    Rather than a 1-16 rank i'm going to do bands based on where I think the big gaps in votes will be. The reasoning is that where the gaps are probably small the end result is quite unpredictable

    1-3: Shiraishi Mai, Nishino Nanase
    Shiraishi wins by every measure of general popularity and recognition with the public such as Google searches, but Nishino has the best Handshake numbers and better blog comment numbers. Looking at the experience of AKB48 neither of these has proven to be a perfect measure of likely votes in elections.

    Wildcard 1: Matsui Rena: Wildcards are girls whose rank I find more difficult to predict. With Rena the question would be "do her fans care enough?". That sounds a bit weird, what I mean is "would her fans come out in full force?" If they do she would take center, but there are question marks too. She's centered SKE songs before so it's not like her fans would be desperate for that. And if the election were tomorrow, do Rena fans care about what happens in Nogizaka enough yet?

    3-6: Akimoto Manatsu, Hashimoto Nanami, Matsumura Sayuri
    It would be quite a shock if Hashimoto or Matsumura didn't make top 6, their popularity is too solid. As for Akimoto, she has great HS numbers but less recognition than either Hashimoto or Matsumura. I almost made her a wildcard, but I probably don't expect her to come outside this bracket.

    Wildcard 2: Ikuta Erika
    She did well in the Google search ranks, but less so in Handshake results. What effect would her hiatus have? She could disrupt top 5 or she could end up on the edge of the top 10.

    7-11: Sakurai Reika, Fukagawa Mai, Wakatsuki Yumi, Eto Misa
    I don't have too much to say really. These are the girls I expect to be fighting it out at the tail end of the top 10 and I think they, potentially along with Ikuta, will all be relatively close in their vote count.

    12: Takayama Kazumi
    No-mans-land Kazumi. Unlikely to threaten anyone above her, unlikely to be beaten by anyone behind her.

    Widcard 3 + 4: Ikoma Rina, Hori Miona
    I would be surprised if either of these two missed senbatsu. The only other members with a shot at disrupting the top 12, but 15th and 16th are possibilities too.

    Remaining Spots: Not a clue
    Ito M? Inoue? Nakada? Nagashima? Saito Y? Saito A? Nakamoto?
     
  7. ijkm

    ijkm Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2011
    I... really can't predict this. Whenever money got into something, there's a lot of difference.
    Like Shibata Aya from SKE48, in general, her popularity doesn't have a chance to beat Sakuratan (HKT48). But because her fan money, anything would happen.
    If Nogizaka46 Election really happens, the battle would be interested. I think Mai will get the position where she belong. But from the top 2 down-on, we would never know.
     
  8. mb1619

    mb1619 Kenkyuusei

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    The strong handshake numbers of Fukagawa and the amazing result for Ikoma in AKB48 Sousenkyou have thrown my prediction way off :yikes:
     
  9. rust

    rust Kenkyuusei Retired Staff

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    ^hmm Maimai is having a very good year, so I agree her status within the group might need to be re-evaluated. I think Ikoma need more observation tho, I do believe her ranking high have to do with many non-Ikoma oshis voting for her.

    I rly like your characterization of No-mans-land Kazumi btw lol. xD
     
  10. Bushido

    Bushido Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2012
    Wow, is Minami that invisible to most N46 fans? Isn't she the ideal Japanese girl? Cute, small, sistery type, quiet, calm, and did I mention cute? :awesome:
     
  11. L4verra

    L4verra Kenkyuusei

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    wadamaya
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    What knocked down Hoshimina's rank on the hypothetical sousenkyo is that she was lazy until she got knocked off of the senbatsu. She still is the cute, little sister type idol we all know and love (she's 3rd on my favorite Nogi members list), but I think that because she was lazy, it didn't sit too well with fans...
     
  12. mb1619

    mb1619 Kenkyuusei

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    The reason why she isn't chosen on most of these lists is that there just isn't the evidence for her popularity from HS events etc.
    She's certainly not an invisible in the way some undergirls are though
     
  13. Jurinavenclaw

    Jurinavenclaw Future Girls

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    Oshimen:
    Matsui Jurina
    Wow, this is the first time I heard that nogi will have their own election, nice. As for Rena, I can imagine her fans MIGHT take this opportunity to go all out. While Rena had center songs in SKE before, she is yet to be a sole-center for an A-side. She really is a wild card on this one.
     
  14. Trinu

    Trinu Under Girls

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    Jul 30, 2010
    Location:
    Earth-616
    They're not.
    Mousou means it's just in our imagination, and how it would play out.
     
  15. Jurinavenclaw

    Jurinavenclaw Future Girls

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    Dec 25, 2010
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    Laguna, Philippines
    Oshimen:
    Matsui Jurina
    darn, should have given the word "mousou" some thought.. I know that word, well thanks to mousoudeka of SKE.. oh well..
     
  16. Razil

    Razil Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2014
    Oshimen:
    ikutaerika
    Here's my 16 members sousenkyo senbatsu members!

    1. Shiraishi Mai
    Strong HS sales, plus her jobs outside the groups including hosting shows and modeling.

    2. Nishino Nanase
    Giving the fact she is always number one in HS sales and outside the group jobs like modeling.

    3. Hashimoto Nanami
    Always in top 7 senbatsu selection, good HS sales and modeling jobs.

    4. Matsumura Sayuri
    5. Fukagawa Mai
    6. Eto Misa
    7. Akimoto Manatsu
    8. Ikuta Erika
    9. Sakurai Reika
    10. Wakatsuki Yumi
    11. Ito Marika
    12. Hoshino Nanami
    13. Saito Asuka
    14. Ikoma Rina
    15. Hori Miona
    16. Takayama Kazumi
     
  17. honeyNUT

    honeyNUT Member

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    watanabemiyuki
    Twitter:
    satominameme
    Wow, didn't know that this thread existed.


    Well, here's mine

    1. Shiraishi Mai
    2. Nishino Nanase
    3. Hashimoto Nanami
    4. Ikuta Erika
    5. Akimoto Manatsu
    6. Fukugawa Mai
    7. Eto Misa
    8. Sakurai Reika
    9. Wakatsuki Yumi
    10. Saito Asuka
    11. Matsumura Sayuri
    12. Nakamoto Himeka
    13. Hori Miona
    14. Hoshino Minami
    15. Takayama Kazumi
    16. Ito Marika

    17. Inoue Sayuri
    18. Saito Yuri
    19. Nakada Kanna
    20. Shinuchi Mai
    21. Nagashima Seira
    22. Ikoma Rina
    23. Nojou Ami
    24. Kitano Hinako
    25. Teranda Ranze
    26. Watanabe Miria
    27. Kawamura Mahiro
    28. Sasaki Kotoko
    29. Yamazaki Rena
    30. Ito Marika
    31. Waada Maya
    32. Sagara Iori
     
  18. mb1619

    mb1619 Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2014
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    I'm gonna make my 2015 prediction.

    1. Shiraishi Mai
    2. Nishino Nanase
    3. Hashimoto Nanami
    4. Fukagawa Mai
    5. Ikuta Erika
    6. Akimoto Manatsu
    7. Sakurai Reika
    8. Eto Misa
    9. Matsumura Sayuri
    10. Wakatsuki Yumi
    11. Takayama Kazumi
    12. Saito Asuka
    13. Ikoma Rina
    14. Hoshino Minami
    15. Inoue Sayuri
    16. Hori Miona

    17. Ito Marika
    18. Saito Yuri
    19. Nakamoto Himeka
    20. Shinuchi Mai
    21. Nakada Kana
    22. Nagashima Seira
    23. Kitano Hinako
    24. Kawago Hina
    25. Terada Ranze
    26. Noujo Ami
    27. Sasaki Kotoko
    28. Yamazaki Rena
    29. Watanabe Miria
    30. Kawamura Mahiro
    31. Ito Karin
    32. Higuchi Hina

    33. Iori Sagara
    34. Wada Maaya
    35. Suzuki Ayane
    36. Saito Chiharu
    37. Ito Junna

    Thoughts:
    - Maiyan and Naachan as the two-top of Nogizaka. It could go either way between them for the win but for either to fail to make top 2 would be a massive coup.

    - What a mess for the rest of senbatsu :fp:. Sooooo hard to call. Of course someone like Nanamin is almost certain to be top 5, and Inoue probably couldn't achieve higher than 13, but it still just felt very up in the air with a lot of marginal calls. Some members I feel will do better than their handshake performance (Matsumura, Ikoma) and others not as good (Saito A), but those are just gut feelings...

    - I actually found it quite easy to decide on the top 16, and top 17. There was something of a natural ridge around that mark, which was interesting.

    - 18-23 was pretty much a crap shoot to be honest, but I found there was another ridge between 23 and 24.

    - 24-37 felt much the same way as 3-16, a lot of marginal decisions and guesswork albeit with some members easily placed into the higher of lower part of the band.
     
  19. Nuneul

    Nuneul Kenkyuusei

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    Jun 20, 2014
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    France
    Oshimen:
    shidamanaka
    with that super-dooper push Naachan got, she is more visible to the general public, but I dunno if it's enough to make her first.
    so, here comes my prediction...
    1. Shiraishi Mai
    2. Nishino Nanase
    3. Hashimoto Nanami
    4. Fukagawa Mai
    5. Akimoto Manatsu
    6. Ikuta Erika
    7. Eto Misa
    8. Sakurai Reika
    9. Wakatsuki Yumi
    10. Matsumura Sayuri
    11. Saito Asuka
    12. Hoshino Minami
    13. Hori Miona
    14. Takayama Kazumi
    15. Ito Marika
    16. Inoue Sayuri
    17. Nakamoto Himeka
    18. Nakada Kana
    not doing the Undergirls, for the reason that I think they can't do it. since Nogi's members are closer to 32 than AKB could be, the last member of UG would be automatically the least popular member, which can be really damaging for her self-esteem. but if this category was brought in, the UG center would be either Yuttan or Ikomachan to me.
     
  20. feryfernanda

    feryfernanda Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
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    Oshimen:
    etomisa
    here it is my prediction
    1. Nishino Nanase
    2. Shiraishi Mai
    3. Ikuta Erika
    4. Saito Asuka
    5. Eto Misa
    6. Akimoto Manatsu
    7. Takayama Kazumi
    8. Wakatsuki Yumi
    9. Matsumura Sayuri
    10. Hoshino Minami
    11. Hori Miona
    12. Inoue Sayuri
    13. Ikoma Rina
    14. Shinuchi Mai
    15. Nakamoto Himeka
    16. Ito Marika
    17. Sakurai Reika
    18. Terada Ranze
     

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