Single HKT48 14th [TBA] (postponed)

Discussion in 'HKT48 News & Releases' started by lionel90, Dec 31, 2020.

  1. lionel90

    lionel90 Upcoming Girls

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    Just anounced

    HKT48 will release their 14th single for next spring. Also the 1st single in their 10th anniversary year.
    2 centers senbatsus
    https://twitter.com/hkt48_official_/status/1344575285283307523

    Stay tuned

    Quick thoughts:
    The release is just 1 month before Sakura and Nako return to HKT48, so it sounds management definetly wants to push someone else. Maybe, whoever they want to pair with Miku ?
    Or the 2 above are freed from the exclusivity and they are the choosen ones.
    I'd go for the further

    01/13 update:
    The release is pushed to another date, due to the sanitaire situation worsening in Japan.
    The new release date will be anounced as soon as possible.
    http://www.hkt48.jp/news/2021/01/7157
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2021
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  2. JoKawaruso

    JoKawaruso Kenkyuusei

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    Actually it says 2 Senbatsu, maybe they will try something like STU's last single?
     
  3. ColorfulMonsters48

    ColorfulMonsters48 Kenkyuusei

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    I guess NakoMiku will be Centers. I doubt Nako/Sakura, Miku/Hana. Hopefully HKT48 goes the Kpop route with high budget videos. I want them to peek in Charts with good content
     
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  4. Reveen

    Reveen Upcoming Girls

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    Nah Sakura and Nako will be busy in Korea till the last moment, they might even get an extension.

    I'd say maybe this will be Nappi/Nene or something like that.
     
  5. ossan

    ossan Kenkyuusei

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    What is "W senbatsu" ?
     
  6. lionel90

    lionel90 Upcoming Girls

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    ^
    See what STU48 did with their latest single.

    And honestly, I am not conviced that HKT48 would attempts to appeal to K-pop fans like AKB48 did.
    The mother ship's one didn't really see a significant improvement in sales.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2020
  7. David61

    David61 Upcoming Girls Stage48 Donor

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    I'd love to see my two favourite HKT members Madoka and Nene involved but my guess at the W-center is Mikurin/Nappi.
     
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  8. Dokuro3313

    Dokuro3313 Kenkyuusei

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    I think as the push of Unjo Hirona was a fail, they will do a Miku/Hana push this time.
    Both of them worked perfectly as a center before.

    Maybe the two centers are the two Kenkyuusei who were on A-sides before.
     
  9. Sosuke Pochaco

    Sosuke Pochaco Kenkyuusei

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    I wouldn't mind seeing Mikurin center and Rimika center.
     
  10. zukkybean

    zukkybean Kenkyuusei

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    part of me feels like it's sakunako despite the disbandment thing lol. not sure who the other center would be (even though i wish it was nappi again lol) but i predict one of them to be miku
     
  11. Quark

    Quark Kenkyuusei

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    Sorry, but... How can Nappi's push be a fail if she was by far the top seller in hs in the last single? I'm fine with having her center again and HKT usually repeats centers so I think she will probably get this one also (maybe w with nene or toyonaga aki.
     
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  12. Dokuro3313

    Dokuro3313 Kenkyuusei

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    Compare 3-2's Youtube views to previous HKT48 singles
     
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  13. Quark

    Quark Kenkyuusei

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    I don't think that is a good approach at all. MV views are multicausal. I expect views to be lower after important member graduates or do not appear.
    I did the comparison but taking into account the amount of time the videos were on youtube (because, of course, newer songs always have lower numbers). 3-2 has more views/month than Ishii, kisu was matsu, baguette iijan (OMG! That means Sashi was the worst push ever?), and saikou kayo (I didn't go further to Haruppi's songs). Hayaokui calendar is by far the higher mv. I think this analysis favors newer songs but it is still more reliable than a direct comparison at this point.
     
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  14. Mikuriin

    Mikuriin Rank 81-100 (Temporary Name)

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    I agree that MV views is a worse way to decide if a push is fail or not.
    Now HS sales and maybe outside jobs is more reliable. Arguably, it used to be sousenkyo results but they stopped doing that.
     
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  15. Dragonkiller12012

    Dragonkiller12012 Kenkyuusei

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    The primary reason why it is a bad idea to use MV views on YouTube to gauge popularity of either a specific individual or a group is simply the fact that YouTube's inner workings are broken AF. Hundreds of thousands of views get dismissed and removed daily, some of the views are specifically bought, some bot views are allowed to pass as legitimate views instead of properly dismissed, etc etc.

    It's not unlike how the results of the Senbatsu Elections alone make for poor gauges of popularity (given the event is at its core equivalent to a beauty pageant (in the same way that a lot of people only care about the skin deep aspect of beauty, a lot of people voting will be familiar mainly with the already established top girls in the 48 groups thus consider throwing votes at one of those instead of someone lesser known, and in the case of someone like Ikoma-san from the 46 groups she was the only option for fans of the 46 groups available that one year which no matter how you try to argue around it definitely gave her an edge over 48 girls proper already at a big disadvantage from their own groups most established members)).

    Beyond all of that I want to mention that receiving the center position for one single does not a full blown push make and that the more a girl finds herself in that position the more she can grow into the position (not always, of course).
     
  16. Mikuriin

    Mikuriin Rank 81-100 (Temporary Name)

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    Yeah but at least with ssk we can gauge on how much a girl's fan are willing to spend on the group, giving their money to stakeholders. Although of course, better ssk result does not necessarily means a girl is attracting more fans and/or will get a deserved push from mgmt.
     
  17. sdn48oshi

    sdn48oshi Kenkyuusei

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    I wouldn’t say they are poor gauges of popularity. I would definitely say they aren’t the “end all” in terms of who is popular or not.
    But YouTube views is a legitimate way of gauging popularity in terms of the general public. But honestly that conversation is not even necessary when it comes to 48 groups, because none of their songs are ever popular with the general public. So just because one 48G video has more than another doesn’t really mean anything.
     
  18. Mana

    Mana Upcoming Girls

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    Nappi's push is not a fail at all... She really had bad luck because her first single as center, which was supposed to be "her" moment, end up being released right during the start of the pandemic. The single received 0 promotion. in fact, they have never performed the song until months later... The single was released on 22nd April and the first performance of it was on 30th August... That's 4 months later, but usually promotions for a single happen in the weeks before the release, so you can say that this performance was 5-6 months late. when they finally performed it in front of an audience on 2nd November (6 months after the single's release!) Nappi even cried when introducing the song.

    I posted the links to the 2 performances, they're on the 3-2 thread for anyone who want to see them. They only performed the song twice in total and it was months later. if Nappi cried, it's because she knows that this was a big opportunity for her that end up not really being an opportunity... it's not her fault... But she is still popular, and she was picked as center for a reason, she definitely deserves to be center again and this time for a more eventful release...

    Youtube views is not the way to judge the success of a release or the success of the center, especially with this single where they couldn't promote it, and it's more difficult to get views now that members like Sasshi and Sakura are not here. I really like 3-2 and the comments I've seen about it praised the song and choreography so the song received a good response.

    Now for this new single, I like the idea of double senbatsu, maybe they'll make the whole group as senbatsu since it's their 10th year anniversary? I hope that for their 10th year, they can have at least 3 singles and a lot of promotions! For the centers, this single will be released before Sakura and Nako are back so the center is one of the currently active members. For me, I said it above, my wish is for Nappi to be center again! I really like her as center and I think she's pretty and cute, and she's doing well, so it's worth to give her more chances.

    I hope they'll have another single around June-July and my personal wish for that one is to be a Sakura solo center (and it would be her first time to solo center in HKT too...).
     
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  19. Dragonkiller12012

    Dragonkiller12012 Kenkyuusei

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    Considering that even the King of YouTubers PewDiePie has next to no tangibly evident popularity off of the platform putting ANY stock in YouTube views as a popularity determiner is foolish beyond belief. The platform is internally broken begs repeating.

    Also - "But honestly that conversation is not even necessary when it comes to 48 groups, because none of their songs are ever popular with the general public." - Interesting statement. For starter's there are multiple years worth of karaoke charts out there you can look up to inform you how many songs by the 48 groups have been popular with the general public. Granted the last 5 years or so have been mostly duds for the 48 groups in this area, but that hardly implies that none of their songs are ever popular with the general public.
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2021
  20. sdn48oshi

    sdn48oshi Kenkyuusei

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    Two things:
    1. Youtubers and music that’s available on YouTube are two completely different things that cannot even be compared. Look up what the top songs for streaming and digital sales are in Japan and then look up what the most viewed music videos are during that same time period. There will literally be a direct correlation so idk why you’re trying to make all of these leaps to discredit YouTube views as a gauge for song popularity. But again, it’s not the most accurate measure ever, especially when the views aren’t in the multiple millions, but they shouldn’t be dismissed as completely unreliable either.

    2. I never said none of their songs WERE ever popular with the general public. I totally get how the way I worded it would be interpreted that way. But when I said “are ever” I meant it more in a contemporary way. Poor choice of wording on my end.

    I would never claim or think about that 48G has NEVER had hit songs. I mean nowadays they definitely don’t but they def did back in the day with songs like Furage, KFC, 365, Silent Majority etc.
     

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