Hopes, Fears, and Predictions for 2020 (Nogizaka46)

I'm a bit new, just out of curiosity, You mentioned in 2019 prediction about "Ringo, Maichun, Misa, Manatsu and Miria graduation" and in the prediction of 2020 "Ringo, Maichun, Ranze, Kanarin and Kazumin graduation" Why you do not expect Manatsu to graduate this year anymore? Why everyone let her out of the graduation equation this year? Isn't she a 1st gen member with ringo, maichun, kazumin ?

 

Manatsu will likely stay longer since she's captain.

Manatsu once said that she would graduate when she was 46 (or something like that). Obviously that was a joke, but Manatsu loves Nogi and loves being an idol and I think she wouldn't mind staying awhile if she has a good reason to stay (like being captain).

 

Doubt it ; Manatsu is an interim Captain
She probably be gone by 2021

 

@Halyup Did they explicitly state that somewhere? I might have missed that.

 

@Halyup Well, I will need a source of that. The first thing that I had in mind was that she would stay until 2022 because of last interview of 2019 she told that "there were no reasons to graduate".

And then Maiyan graduation happened so from here on there are only two possibilities. (Yes, these posibilities are based on the premise that Manatsu as captain would need to wait for at least Kazumin, Matsumura and Shinuichi to leave first, remember captain is the last to abandon ship):

1- Interim Captain which means that 1st gen is over, this year we will see kazumin, matsumura and shinuichi leave and then in 2021 Manatsu will announce grad and pass captain to Ikuta/Asuka or a 3rd Gen.

2- 1st gen is not over, which means kazumin, matsumura and shinuichi do not leave this year but in 2021, which means Manatsu would be expected to stay until the beginning of 2022.

@Seditious85 What do you think?

 

@thekernelone Shinuchi is 2nd Gen! LOL for that BBA!

I think 'interim' is wrong. It implies that there's going to be another choice soon, but it hasn't been decided yet. Captain Sakurai handed it off to Manatsu most formally during last year's summer tour. I think being the captain is Manatsu's for as long as she wants or stays a member, which may be a few months or many more years to come.

 

I don't think she will be the last 1st gen to leave the group. Besides the names you mentioned (except Shinuchi who is 2nd gen), there is also the younger group of Asuka, Minami, Maaya and Chima. They will hopefully be around beyond 2021.

My prediction? I think Manatsu will stay at least until 2022, maybe a bit longer. After that, she will pass the title of Captain to Umezawa Minami.

 

Ah I see, that prediction fits well with the last interview she did for realsound which I will link it here https://realsound.jp/2020/01/post-476822.html which in page 3 she stated

• 秋元：本当に、誰かに決めてほしいってぐらい、卒業する理由がなくて。周りは卒業していくかもしれないけど、なきゃないで自分の中で引っかかるところが出てくるまでは、自分はここにいていいのかなという気がします。

Although my japanese is not good and given the context I understand that "there is no reason to graduate" and "I want someone to decide about it", however that interview was made in January 3 and then Maiyan thing happened, that's why I wanted to see your opinion about this.

 

Yeah, I can't see Manatsu leaving anytime soon. She might end up being the Minegishi of the group and being the last 1st gen to graduate.

 

Manatsu already knew about Maiyan graduating by then. I think she knew some time last year.

 

please be true