Hopes, Fears, and Predictions for Keyakizaka46 in 2020?

I saw this hasn't been done for the bit 2020, so i'm setting the ball rolling...

With 2018 coming to a close. It's time to do the yearly tradition for Stage48!

So what are your Hopes, Fears, and Predictions for 2019 for Keyakizaka46?

Last 4 years
2019 - 2018 - 2017 - 2016

 

Okay, first time doing this so be gentle:

Hopes:
- This has been done to death, but we need a new center. Even Ikoma-san had to give up her spot after the 5th single, and 48G in my opinion did a good enough job of developing other girls to become center. I love Hirate very much and its time to give her a much-needed break from the center spot. Keyaki is not devoid of talent and I can see Risa-sama, Captain Sugai, Akanen and Yuipon taking on the mantle of center and doing a stand-out job. I would argue even Miyu or Fuu-chan. One can only hope, but hey, that's why its called "Hopes for 2020" lol

- Three singles for 2020. Yes, the time maybe short, but its not out of the ordinary for a big group like Keyaki. I would be fine with two if it means the quality is not sacrificed.

Fears:
- A Hirate graduation. She looks so burned out and I really miss the smiling, happy baby otter I saw in the earlier stages of Keyaki. I believe Techi has so much more to offer, perhaps if there will be a new center, she can ease into things and enjoy her work again.

- Forced graduation for Oda. Yes, she has been confirmed for the Zambi thing but still we don't know her status (gee, thanks S&F).

Predictions:
- After the 9th single, there will be another Techi centered single before finally shifting for the 11th.
- Perhaps a new TV drama or a unique program for Keyaki will be launched, aside from the main KeyaKake show

I just wanted to share also that this last December, I was able to incorporate some Keyaki songs and steps into our yearly dance competition (snippets of SaiMajo and Fukyuowaon) but the choreo is just -- mind blowing. My teammates loved it, the judges loved it. Unfortunately we didn't win, but it made me appreciate Keyaki more and the hard work they do. Takahiro-sensei is a frickin genius.

 

Hopes:

• 3 new singles would be nice.
• Center that isn't Techi, nothing against her, but we need some new blood.
• 2nd gen center, I think Hono or Hikaru would do well.
• A Keyabingo season for the 2nd gens, like how Nogi had one just for the third gens.
• Keyakizaka increases in fame, breaks into the West with some amazing song.
• A new TV drama. One that's good.
• Whatever is going on with Oda and Mon is quickly explained and they rejoin KeyaKake, etc.
• 2nd gen, Ten in particular, gets more used to variety.

Fears:

• Graduations, Berika's in particular for me.
• Scandals.
• The 9th single is somehow pushed into 2021.
• Techi gets more injured and injured due to strain until she is forced to graduate.
• No Keyaki Republic.
• 3rd gen is suddenly revealed.
• Songs drop in quality.
• Keyakake is canceled.
• Concerts are canceled, pretty much anything they are currently doing is canceled.

Predictions:

• Hono or Hikaru, or maybe Yuipon center the 10th single.
• 9th single is okay, 10th is really good.
• Techi either perseveres through this year and graduates next year, or this is the year.
• Mon graduates.
• Keyaki Republic 2020 is awesome, once again.
• Someone gets a photobook.

One last thing:

Spoiler

My hopes and fears for 2019
Hopes

• Techi and Dani grow out their hair

Both happened, so nice.

• New center(Pe?)

Didn't happen, unfortunately.

• Good songs in the same style as Eccentric and Silent Majority

Kuroi Hitsuji was really good, so fine with me.

• Keyakake gets better

Yep.

• New Yuichanzu? Aozora to MARRY?
• New members make Keyakake great again

Yeo.
Fears

• Graduations
• More overworking, and therefore prolonged breaks for bad health of members
• Techi cuts hair even shorter
• Scandals

None for pretty much all, at least not to a big degree. Nice.
Predictions

• Techi center
• Hiragana graduation
• Scandal
• New members help make Keyakake great again

All came true minus the scandal. Maybe I should try and get a job as Fortune Nakada's new apprentice.

 

A nice 10th single and a killer 10th.
A center change or co-centering for the 10th single.
Mon and Oda very likely will graduate in 2020. We'll be lucky if those are the only graduations.

 

@Heelo your list of fears depressed me, lol

I hope management listens this time and gives us a new center. It will benefit Techi, the members, and Keyaki in the long run.

 

Hopes:
2ki center
3 singles

Fears:
Mon graduation (still bitter to me)
3ki (unless it is one girl like hinano)

Prediction:
Dani and Mon graduate
Techi on hiatus

 

Hopes:
Success
A new TV show

Fears:
Graduations due to injuries
Unexpected event, i.e. Aki-P retiring/or worst

Predictions:
Graduations
3gen recruitment
Techi will be centre for all 2020 single releases

 

Hopes:

- 2 singles and an album
More variation in their B-sides with more sub-units. It will never happen, but I wish that for their second album there will be individual songs for all members. Maybe something they composed themselves or playing an instrument on their own etc to explore their individuality and creativity.

- An overseas tour
It maybe time to explore an overseas concert. They have enough popularity to sell out a concert in one of the neighbouring countries, and then be able to gauge if they can actually explore more venues. It's time to look internationally and widen their fanbase.

- A new TV show or movie or even documentary
I don't have much hope for a TV show or movie, but maybe a documentary of their 2019 live performances where they show us the footages of their rehearsals and practices and maybe the interactions between the members etc. The making footage of Kuroi Hitsuji (only single of 2019) and their end of year performances behind the scenes. I'd even take an anime movie/drama with the members doing voice-overs at this point.


Fears:

- Mass graduations of first generation members
I think that there will be members who are currently thinking of graduating. Especially those who are in their 20s and not making a good income from their Keyakizaka46 activities will be thinking that maybe it's time to move on and explore other career options. Because honestly, how many of the current members can confidently say that they will have a good career in the entertainment industry after Keyakizaka46? I think maybe a handful at best.

- Only one single for 2020
Please not another repeat of 2019. Just one year without any problems and scandals.

- No Keyaki Republic 2020 or No Keyaki Republic 2019 DVD release
I have a feeling that there will not be a DVD release for Keyaki Republic 2019. From what I heard, it wasn't as good as previous years and they did not even perform their only 2019 single on the setlist, but it will probably be the Tokyo Dome DVD replacing Keyaki Republic 2019 DVD. I do hope that there will be another Keyaki Republic this year.

- 3rd Generation Members
I really hope that there won't be any 3rd generation members this year. At least a full year of single releases with the 2nd generation members and the new senbatsu system before bringing in new members. There's no need for disruption to the group atmosphere at this point, until at least more graduations take place.


Predictions:

- 1st Generation member graduations
I think it's a matter of time now before Oda Nana and Suzumoto Miyu graduate. I'm not sure at this point whether there is any way back in for them. The group seemed to have moved on, and there haven't been any news releases in regards to their status as members. I also feel that we might see a few more first generation members graduate, as I mentioned above. For some of them, it might be time for them to explore their career options beyond Keyakizaka46 especially the smarter ones who might want to explore more stable career options and who might not be earning much right now from their Keyakizaka46 activities.

- Hirate Yurina will center all 2020 single releases
This might be a bit controversial and some may not like it, but it's just my opinion. I don't think it's because of the performances anymore, although of course that plays some part in it. I maintain my opinion that any member will be able to perform at a very high level, given the practice time. It's the elements that happen away from the cameras that ensures that she will remain the center for all singles until she graduates.

There was a discussion on Japanese twitter recently as to whether Keyakizaka46 fans = Hirate Yurina fans, with the person who started the initial discussion a data analyst. The discussion is that the initial Keyakizaka46 fans who are Japanese idol fans before Keyakizaka46 have moved on when Keyakizaka46 refused to change their center, and the fanbase replaced by newer fans who were drawn in to Keyakizaka46 through their performances. A lot of them who are not idol fans previously, naturally search through the Internet for Keyakizaka46 MVs and performances, and become Hirate Yurina fans first. And as they delve further into Keyakizaka46, they naturally find out more about other members and then find their oshis but their top three will always include Hirate. That explains the part where Keyakizaka46 has a more "K-Pop" style fanbase with the Twitter trends etc because a lot of them are not initially idol fans in the first place, and are fiercely protective of Keyakizaka46 and will stick by them through positive or negative news. The data analyst then backed it up by the fact that anything to do with Hirate has far more Twitter posts than any other members. For example, when Hikaru centered Kuroi Hitsuji and then the Hirate-Hono picture was posted the same night, the posts about the picture far outweigh the Hikaru centered performance. Same with the Countdown Japan concert where Yuuka centered Fukyouwaon and Kobayashi centered Garasu and some other songs. The posts on Twitter and social media are far outweighed as to when Hirate performs. She generates headlines, whether good or bad, and that in turn keeps Keyakizaka46 in the headlines. She was the most searched performer on Google by far, the day after Kouhaku.

Another point that she will remain the center is that she retains the support of all the members as the center. Management doesn't need to deal with internal issues or "ambition" issues as long as she's center. Through various interviews from Yuuka, Akanen, Uemura, Risa etc from the past that I've mentioned before in my previous posts, in the minds of the members she is the absolute center of the group. That when she performs as the center, the members perform in one direction. The second generation members look up to her, through interviews it was mentioned by another 2nd generation member that Matsuda really likes Hirate, and then Hono answered in another interview when she was asked to describe her relationship with Hirate, and she said like a wota with her idol. Habu was asked in an interview during fashion week whether she had given tips to Hirate, and she answered that it's not her place to give tips to Hirate and that she has sacrificed so much for the group. The last time anyone has even mentioned about wanting to center a single was years ago with Imaizumi Yui.

Most importantly, she retains the trust of management. I mean, they didn't just build her image for four years as the absolute center and have her do an individual encore at Tokyo Dome only to set her aside from the center position in 2020. As opposed to what many people may say about her work ethic, I personally feel that her work ethic is impeccable. As I mentioned in the past, if she doesn't have a high work ethic, then management would have already replaced her as the center in the past and the older members of the group would have put her back in her place. Aki-P was asked in an interview last year about some of Hirate's lacklustre performances and whether she's not trying hard enough, and he answered that Hirate always try her best, and if that's the level of her performance at that time, it's because that's the absolute best that she can do at that time. In a recent interview with Hibiki's director, he also mentioned Hirate's work ethic. He said that when they were filming the MV, even though he said a particular take is okay, she always insisted on re-doing the scenes and said that she can do better. She keeps going until her knees are swollen and he feels as if he has to force her to stop and that she will not stop until she's completely broken. People from the outside keep saying that she's lazy and she's always vacationing and taking time off, but those who have worked with her like the staff and members have always maintained her high work ethic. We don't know what goes on during the rehearsals and MV shoots and the time away from the cameras.

- Launch of official Keyakizaka46 fan club (both Japanese and international)
I think it's time for a launch of an official fan club for both Japanese and international fans, where they are able to get together and discuss everything Keyakizaka46 in one place. Maybe a proper marketplace for tickets and merchandise, and have a fan base moving in the same direction.

- Keyakizaka46 having a separate management
I think we will see Keyakizaka46 having a separate dedicated management group in this coming year, focusing more on international branding. I feel that they should also have a wider base of songwriters (not only Aki-P), that is more in line with the type of songs that they are looking to release. Maybe that will give them a wider range of songs, and world views that were not previously explored.

 

Offtopic so I'll put this under spoilers

Spoiler

Holy shit but that's freaking bad for the group I understand the situation about the fans but the members??? And here I thought they had more fired up than that. Ofc Hirate giving up the center position will affect the group's sale and popularity but it will get better as long as the girls work hard like other idol groups to gain new fans and improve their popularity. They have clear image of the group's direction right now and they're backed up with great staff (not management) so there's nothing to be afraid of. Both Nogi and Hinata went through bitter times in the beginning but look at them now. It's time to stop hiding behind Hirate and put them through the harsh reality every idol groups have to face.
I still feel like there are ambition in 2ki despite that polite attitude toward their senpai. It's ok for them to have admiration for Techi (I do too so why not them too?). But I hope this wont turn into something like "support hirate from behind" or "cool like hirate" like the reigning atmosphere in 1ki but in a competitive way. I sense competitivity underneath Matsuri and Hikarun's personality so I have hopes for them. Hono too to a certain extent because I read somewhere that she wanted to join hiragana in the beginning

 

A reply to your post to avoid misconceptions, so I'll put this under spoilers also.

Spoiler

Just to make things perfectly clear, I'm not saying Hirate is better than other members or anything like that. The thing is, when Keyakizaka46 first started, I'm sure none of them expected Keyakizaka46 to come this far this fast. And for the members since the first single, all they have known is that Hirate is their center. Some of them have grown into adults throughout this phase, and this comes almost as a given to them. It's not that they are not fired up or have no ambition, it's that they have always put the good of the group first before individual ambitions.

As a personal perspective, when I look at Keyakizaka46 right now, I see the sum of the individual components as being greater than its parts. Just like how I see Yuuka and Akanen being the brains of the group as the captain and co-captain, I see Risa and Kobayashi as the left hand and right hand, and Hirate as the heart. They are supporting each other, and that's always a good thing. For me, Hirate epitomises the essence of Keyakizaka46. Not the perfect idol, emotionally fragile, just the girl next door who's trying to do her best despite her limitations. And that goes for all the members. Just as I have mentioned before in Akanen's interview previously, she was asked about Hirate. Her answer was that she's indispensable to Keyakizaka46, but not because she's the best singer or the best dancer. It's just that everyone is so used to her being center that when someone else is center, there is a general nervousness as to whether they are able to do well when they go out on stage, and there are some members who go out with the mind of let's just do their best, and others worrying about whether everything will be okay. But when they perform with Hirate as center, the members go out knowing that they just need to do their best individually without worrying about anything else. They are just so used to seeing her in front of them. And in Kobayashi's interview she says that while she's making sure she's perfecting her own performances, Hirate comes into the group meetings with clear opinions regarding the concert's direction and setlist etc. They all each have their own individual parts to play, and at this point it feels like they have entrusted the musical direction of Keyakizaka46 to Hirate, while others have strengthened Keyakizaka46 through their own strengths such as variety or modelling etc.

In regards to second generation members centering a single, I feel that it's still too early for them. Personally, I don't see any other first generation member centering a single. If they haven't centered a single for the past four years, they will not be centering a single now when any one of them might graduate as any given moment as first generation members. And that's why I feel that Hirate will center all singles until she graduates. Can you imagine a second generation member centering the 10th single and the sales drop for whatever reason, it will completely destroy her and she will end up blaming herself even though it's not her fault. And after making sure of marketing Hirate as the absolute center for the past four years, there's no way that management will keep her in senbatsu if they do announce a new center (she has never been in any song in which she participated in where she is not the center). Which means that if that experiment fails, appointing Hirate as center again for the 11th single will be disastrous for the group atmosphere. At this point, I feel that management's thinking is along the lines of don't try to fix something that isn't broken when everyone (management, members, staff) are happy with it. When they get to the point where they have to cross the bridge of appointing a new center, it will be the point where Hirate is no longer in Keyakizaka46.

 

Hope
- 3 singles or 2 singles and an album
- mostly dark Keyaki with a few songs/single that's light
- 2nd gen gets their own song

Fear
- only 1 single
- multiple graduations

Prediction
- Techi will center 2020 singles

 

I'll reply you here.

Spoiler

I think that someone commented here long time ago this but: Imagine the impact and the expectation when Hirate graduates , and management announces something like like:
The new Era for Keyakizaka46 is about to start. Who will be the new face of the group?
I only can hear the cash register at this point (?)

[/QUOTE]

Hopes:

- Two singles at least this year with a new more impressive style . Some members can play instruments and it would be great if we can see it in all their full glory.
- A new drama. I liked Zankoku so much but the script at the final arc was terrible. Maybe a cyberpunk or distopic environment would be interesting.
- A new Goninbayashi's song.
- More recognition for Nijika and Miichan like actresses.
- A photobook for Sato Shiori or Ishimori Nijika.
- Techi in more dramas or movies.
- New center . Maybe for 10th single . Kobayashi it would be a great option in my opinion.

Fears:

- More Graduations. Especially Mon and Oda.
- Techi injured , again. She's literally broken.
- No enought projects for members like Uemura or Nijika. Sorry but I think that these two deserve more recognition like models and actresses.

Predictions:

- Techi like center for all the singles of 2020.
- No more of three singles this year. Maybe two.
- A new drama or variety show.
- A new photobook of some of the members.
- Maybe a new huge event like Keyaki Republic but no this one.

 

Spoiler

I get your point but playing it safe will do more harm than good in the long term and it will put more pressure on Hirate too. And right now the group's stagnating because of the hiratecentrism. Not saying it is hirate and the backdancers (though it felt like that in their early days), right now there are many capable members in there. But they dont get to be on the spotlight because the media only cares about hirate and the camera are focused on her 80% of time. It worked in their favor during the time they were still nobody but at this stage, the group need to evolve (Hirate wont be there forever, she will graduates from high school soon so she may prioritize her studies over idol life). The best moment to do it to follow up the momentum created by the senbatsu (they killed it with the delay though) and pick a 2ki center for 10th single. Of course they should except drops in sales because nobody else in the group can fill her shoes in term of popularity and public recognition. So if they get discouraged by sale numbers then it means they will admit that keyakizaka=Hirate and co. In the end it's a bet they must eventually make, but as long as the management support them with good songs and the members work hard to shape a new keyakizaka they will be fine in the long run.

 

Hopes:
Keyaki girls to have more individual works in accordance with their abilities: Ozeki/Oda/Marina/Rikopi for variety, Techi for performance collab, Hono/Seki/Risa/Pe/Ue more modeling and the list goes on
Uemura to have more magazine feature, she really fits the fairy idol concept
More members take the challenge of musicals or drama
Three singles for Keyaki (or 2 singles and an album), then in 2021 onward we can have a stable 2 releases per year
A carefully planned Dome Tour
Fuuchan and Nijika to showcase more of their skills (including moving to front row, collab, features etc)
Mon photobook
Non-Techi center with every other Techi center so we can have the best of both world (Mon center please)
Techi being healthy, content and grows to love herself more
Techi to feature in a movie/drama/musical
Keyakizaka grows in popularity both in Japan and other countries
Another hit like Saimajo and/or Fukyouwaon

Fears:
More Techi injuries, please my heart can't take her injuries news anymore
Graduations: I really don't want anyone to graduate
3ki: the group needs more time before they can corporate a new wave of members
Only one single for 2020

Predictions:
Keyaki-chan continue to strengthen their performance to perfection
New photobooks (an updated group photobook is very much needed)
A new drama
Stella 9th single
Oversea concerts in China
Keyaki Republic 2019 DVD
2 releases in 2020

 

Hopes:
- At least 2 new releases for 2020 with long, top-notch promotions that fulfills both the members and fans
- Photobooks for 2nd gen, starting with our universally-acclaimed goddess Hono [;
- Keyaki drama with 2nd gen taking lead roles
- DVD releases for 2019 Keyaki Rep & Tokyo Dome
- more opportunities for Keyaki's aces Yuuka, Risa, and Mon
- Neru's return to the group (ha.. ha) or more realistically, Neru's return to showbiz so we can see her interactions with the Keyaki-chans
- this is probably unlikely and controversial, but Techi regains her at-debut personality, energy, and health. yeah, definitely unlikely and probably unfair but I miss her constant smiling mochi face, her endless selfies with the other members, her bravery to face the camera and answer MC q's for the group, and her regular Keyakitte appearances. I guess I just want more Techi outside of performances
- not really specific towards Keyaki, but more fandom unification amongst the Sakamichi groups. yes, it is so damn hard being a Sakamichi stan sometimes and seeing other fans dissing a sister group for absolute no good reason. I will also never understand the hatred of other groups' fans toward Techi; like you don't even like Keyaki in general, so why you gotta be so bitter, jealous, and hatin' towards our center? truly mind-boggling.

Fears:
- Techi grad
- Mon grad
- Dani grad
- lack of 2ki push
- 3ki entrance (not ready for that yet)
- member injuries or hiatuses
- incompetency from S&F management (can forgive 2019's mistakes but NO MORE putting Keyaki on the backburner)

Predictions:
- first gen graduations, with Mon & Oda Nana being the early ones
- more Techi injuries and possible hiatuses (antis will continue to yak away)
- Hono and Morita gets a big fat push from management, starting with photobooks and modeling contracts
- an absolute killer 9th single for all the waiting that was forced on us
- Techi centers all new releases but many perfs will have center substitutes
- separation of management between Keyaki & Hinata (Keyaki gains their own, similar to what @valerien mentioned above)

 

Looking back at what i wrote last year it most of my fears came true. Especially the fact Neru graduated (my oshi why????) Techi being center and keyaki still have more dark songs (kuroi hitsuji was really good i just kinda want a genre change).
Hinata however got to be independant and that was the best new for me. And Aoi being back.
As for this year:
Hopes

• Techi catches a break
• Hikaru center!!
• Or Hono center!!
• Suzumon and Oda come back (which by this point is kinda impossible...)
• Yuipon gets the center she deserves
• Again as I said, a genre change
• More than just releasing a single in a year
• Maybe a new drama?

Fears

• Only one single for the whole year (seeing how the 9th keeps on getting delayed)
• They just keep on using Techi as a center and tire her to death
• Suzumon and oda graduate
• More graduations (my heart cannot bear this after memi and neru)
• Scandals

Predictions

• Mon and Oda won't come back
• Maybe 2 singles this year
• A new center. Just a new center. I wanted that for ages because Techi's state is just. Makes me feel pain
• A new project

 

2020 is not over but Keyaki is, so let's find out who actually was the best at future telling!
Each correct guess (I treat hope/fear/prediction the same) earns you 1 point. Let's go.
I also took the liberty of highlighting the more impressive predictions.

3 points

8 points

1 point

3 points

3 points

5 points

2 points

6 points

8 points

7 points

7 points
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The competition turned out stronger than I believed and it was a very close finish.
Looks like two persons managed to earn 8 points: Heelo and DelicateEmpress
7 points: Keyak and charm
6 points: Marianne
Congratulations!