I believe that once AKB48 will die and slowly disappear from the media, they'll start from scratch and begin from the theater again to have a kind of rebirth and head towards a new path [rock]
Somebody should change the title of this thread to "When will AKB could collapse?"; "die" is too morbid.
Yeah I agree, I just realized that using the word "die" wouldn't be as effective as using collapse, which is the better word to use in this case. I honestly don't think AKB will just die like that, but I think they will eventually become obsolete or in other words, degrade in popularity and will start on a new path hopefully
For someone who just recently got into AKB it's a bit depressing to read these kinds of threads lol but having read a fair bit off the forum it's apparent to me that the group is currently going through its peak. Of course there'll be variation within that peak, but I think sales are a fair indicator of how the group's tracking - it's passed the infancy (<2008), the boom (2009-10), and now really, the exponential growth has stopped and it's tracking along nicely at about ~1m sales 1st week. I can't help however but feel there's a bit of an 'end of an era' about it ever since Tokyo Dome - sales are down, they've achieved their dream of performing there, Acchan has left. I think you can look back at this time and consider Tokyo Dome as the ultimate peak of AKB - the only way from here is most likely down assuming no resurgence in popularity in the newer members - but it'll be a slow downhill, with peaks and troughs over the next few years as foundation members graduate. Really it'll be so difficult for the new members to match what the original members have built over the past 7 years, I can't see a 2nd boom come. Having said that, I don't think AKB will die in the conventional sense. I honestly think they have already thought about this future problem, because I think management have done this for too long not to have given some thought to what to do when the group matures, and how to delay the inevitable fall in popularity. To that end I think the plans for an 'AKB school' is the endgame, the future for AKB. I can conceivably see, once AKB has faded to a much lower base than it is now, that the group itself will convert to a school for idols. I don't however see Aki-P running such a school himself, rather maybe just being there for support and guidance. How quickly this conversion begins really depends on how long this popularity can be sustained. As for me, as long as I enjoy the music, I'll keep supporting AKB.
Seven years is still somewhat long for some people, but if there is another group that stays relevant over time for decades despite its members coming and going, as well as changing attitudes and tastes in music, my favorite example of endurance has to be Earth, Wind & Fire. After some initial misgivings, I realized that TGSK's idea of a more systematic approach in operation, that is, an institution/school-style management model might be more beneficial and organized, perhaps to hew more closely to the classical conservatory form similar to a music school. It's still necessary to forecast and prepare for future changes, and to factor all other things that could very well affect the group as a whole, including the people's purchasing power and perceptions, and external pressures such as Japan's relations with other countries (the Senkaku controversy comes into mind). Finally, I think Aki-P has to watch out from spreading his creation way too thin that his pet program could spin out of control or could gain only a cold shoulder in other countries.
I had this crazy idea. What if AKB ends at their 48th single? That would be so appropriate. And the songs could be called "Akihabara48" even...
^ that could actually be possible, and I did some light research and found a kind of pattern for the last 3 years of AKB... It seems that they tend to release an average of 5 major singles every year since the end of 2009... so mathematically speaking if they were to end on their 48th single, it would mean that they have around 4 years left...could be possible, hopefully not
They'll Never Break... IF AKB48 keep making something "WOW".. something "Extraordinary" like they always done. ..and maybe 10-20 Years again, when we all starting to get old, AKB48 has their 48 gen~ Who knows?
probably when a newer, stronger and better group comes about and takes Japan by such a huge storm never before witnessed in the history of idol groups So it won't happen anytime soon
I am wondering if this is possible, well someone that has a greater mind than Aki-P (and the experience of course) but I can't see that happening soon...
PLEASE DON'T DIE YET!! I'M JUST FALLING FOR THEM NOW AND CAN'T TAKE IT IF IT IS GOING TO BE DEAD IN 5 YEARS FROM NOW
Interesting question. Honestly, i voted "the one i liked is already dead" I still love AKB48, but i have a slightly feeling that this is AKB2.0 (or 3.0) like 1.0 from Sakura no hanabiratachi maybe to Iiwake maybe or sakura no shiori, 2.0 from there to flying get or give me five and 3.0 from there to date. I think AKB will still grow, and then start to gradually fade and in the last death stages might be like a sinking boat, everybody run for their lives. The biggest and nearest challenge might be that AKB doesn't get the same success than 2012 or 2011 and to me it can happen from 2013 to 2014, other challenge might be when the "core girls" start to fade (i see that sadly in takamina) and start to graduate. AKB has demonstrated that it's a live being and can adapt, so i think these challenges will harm but not kill. What I think can be deadly are when japanese people start to get tired of the AKB formula (and the first in dissapear would be the smalest and newer groups) or when people get tired of the AKB music style. I can imagine that this would take from 3 to 10 more years (and I hope to) IE you can see how much SPEED and HP! have been around. But I can imagine that SKE might be able to survive if AKB start to fall apart. But, honestly, AKB is a really old and strong group in Idol J-pop terms. Some manage to last and be success for quite amount of time, but a lot can't even dream to get this amount of success or last this longer. Maybe we'll start to get used to see girls fulfilling the spot of a major girl and star to name her "Acchan the 2nd" and they start to get bionical implants (ok, watching AKB0048 melt my brain)
If you really look at AKB realistically from what they were 7 years to what they've become now...they don't have much room to really...evolve anymore, if that's the right word. From dramas to selling millions of CD's to worldwide exposure...I'd say there's only room for one more thing...continuing the same routine until they are worn out and eventually disband altogether [shock] But because it's AKB48 we're talking about...this won't just happen within a short period of time, they'll gradually start to dissolve, maybe even start from the beginning [wonder] There's a limit to every group of entertainment...as there's gonna be a point when they simply have nothing else to offer to the world...let's just hope Aki-P has one last trick up his sleeve
I think it's happening right now. I don't get the same interest like I used to. AKB has started to push girls too much and too hard. It's like senbatsu doesn't matter anymore or senbatsu only matters for the average AKB member and doesn't count for those girls that are being pushed. The Acchan AKB is gone. That's the one that got me hooked. I've been loosing interest in AKB since they been trying to shove the Paruru - Kawae AKB down my throat.
My interest is changing of lately too, but for a different reason. I used to check everything that was released (singles, photobooks, concerts, albums, series...) but now that's absolutely impossible for me. At first I still paid attention to the PVs and singles that SKE and the units released, but when the other groups were created I stopped doing so and focused only on AKB. But that has become quite difficult too of lately...the singles, the album, the units, team surprise, more and more members starting their solo careers, more and more concerts, specials, tv programs, performances...too many things. Besides...team 4, members changing teams, shuffles, members graduating, members who were totally unknown (for me, at least) appearing everywhere...at first the teams were 'quite' stable, now I feel like there are changes all the time ...so I'm afraid that from now on I will focus even more on the releases that are directly related to the members I love the most...Of course that doesn't mean AKB48 has died for me, just the opposite, it has become too big and now I'm only able to see a little part of it...
I hope AKB48 not to die, if AKB48 die, it's gonna be a history "AKB48 idol group is the first to get japan music award in two consecutive years"
^ Exile and Ayumi Hamasaki won the award 3 times consecutively If akip becomes the female JE like he wants, then akb will last a long fucking time. (JE is over 50+ years old.)
define die ? I have been an akb fan since way back when they release aitakatta single so I can safely say that I do not have the same feel or attraction from the now AKB then a few years back AKB, I don't know what the reason may be or perhaps even why maybe its because of too many new faces and many sudden graduation but to actually die off I don't think its going to happen any time in the near future. what I think is going to happen is AKB48 will still be a group but will be like a revamped AKB48 with a new poster girl possibly Mayu or haruka (Paruru) which I think is what AkiP is heading for right now [think]