Predict the Senbatsu Sousenkyo 2015 (and win awesome prizes!) - Results posted!

Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by rka, Mar 25, 2015.

  1. rka

    rka Future Girls Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Location:
    My Mom's basement
    Oshimen:
    Matsumoto Chikako
    Twitter:
    rka_01
    Prediction closed.
     
  2. rka

    rka Future Girls Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Location:
    My Mom's basement
    Oshimen:
    Matsumoto Chikako
    Twitter:
    rka_01
    Results, Baby.


    First, it took a while, because i forgot to check for typing errors. When i added all ranks together, i realized there were quite a few missing. Because just sometimes member names were in the wrong sequence, a "Miyawaki" became "Miyawagi" and we also had a Shibata Ayaka, for example. Computers are great for doing automated stuff for you, but they cannot know typos. So, i had to manually curate everything, and then run everything again.

    Second, i need to apologize, because the original rule
    "c) Bonus points are awarded if you managed to correctly predict rank sequences but at a wrong position (1 point each). For example, if your prediction has 4 members coming in at 4-7, but were actually ranking at 11-15, you get 4 additional points. Minimum requirement for bonus points is a sequence of 3."

    was actually to hard to check (i couldnt do it manually for 87 people, and couldnt code it computationally -.-). I changed it post-game to bonus points for correctly predicted sequences above 3. I am very sorry.

    But anyway, we have a result, and we also have an undisputed winner (by the tightest of all distances, by a mere point!).

    Here is the final result list. 87 valid submissions, some folks forgot to update their placeholder posts btw xD.

    1. Username
    2. The number of predicted members that appeared in the real top 16
    3. The number of correctly predicted ranks
    4. Bonus points for correctly predicted sequences above three
    5. Final points

    5 was calculated as

    Number of correctly predicted members * 3
    +
    Number of predicted members appearing in different ranks * 1
    +
    Bonus Points

    Example:

    rka;14;4;0;22

    I had 4 correct ranks (Sasshi, Yukirin, Jurina, Yui) and 10 more members which were in top 16, but for which i was wrong with the rank prediction (in fact i had Dasu and Haruppi instead of Tomu and Churi).
    I got no correct sequence above 3 members (only Sasshi and Yuki were correct) =
    4*3
    +
    10*1
    +
    0
    --
    22 pts

    Username;Members;Rank;Bonus;SUM
    @mayuoshiri;13;7;3;30
    @shirocha;13;6;4;29
    @Jpopidolfan;14;5;4;28
    @Cristafari;13;5;3;26
    @Escape48;14;4;3;25
    @SayaneeOshi;14;4;3;25
    @akisato;13;4;3;24
    @mayuyukamioshi;13;4;3;24
    @SakuraSake;13;4;3;24
    @username04829;14;5;0;24
    @ArashNine;14;3;3;23
    @L4verra;13;5;0;23
    @MurasakiSora;13;5;0;23
    @Silenka;13;5;0;23
    @Yungrei;14;3;3;23
    @Deyan;14;4;0;22
    @eriri;14;4;0;22
    @rka;14;4;0;22
    @sasuga akb48;14;4;0;22
    @veyen;14;4;0;22
    @violin;14;4;0;22
    @4evaparuru;13;4;0;21
    @Atsumina_Mayuki;14;3;0;20
    @GuessWho;14;3;0;20
    @KashiwagiFan4Life;14;3;0;20
    @Kimu23;14;3;0;20
    @MindOfALibra;14;3;0;20
    @MocchiMooch;14;3;0;20
    @parousia;14;3;0;20
    @Razil;14;3;0;20
    @sizardow;12;4;0;20
    @sno_rpg;14;3;0;20
    @Takaruru_Otaku48;12;4;0;20
    @tungv;14;3;0;20
    @A(KB)gent048;13;3;0;19
    @diocristian48;15;2;0;19
    @KiraFlower;13;3;0;19
    @Monique;13;3;0;19
    @pblancafort;13;3;0;19
    @plomeplome;13;3;0;19
    @StellaFleuret;13;3;0;19
    @akb0048;14;2;0;18
    @fatrain;14;2;0;18
    @feindouno;14;2;0;18
    @Hitokage;14;2;0;18
    @kaotan48;14;2;0;18
    @kinakomochi;12;3;0;18
    @kk127;14;2;0;18
    @Konno A.;14;2;0;18
    @nanabanana;14;2;0;18
    @natlove;12;3;0;18
    @Nieru;14;2;0;18
    @otoppoi;14;2;0;18
    @Ryoyuhai;14;2;0;18
    @trxsh;14;2;0;18
    @ForrestFuller;13;2;0;17
    @jimmyonishi;13;2;0;17
    @Laluna;13;2;0;17
    @Mayuyubro;13;2;0;17
    @momochi;13;2;0;17
    @oscar6262;13;2;0;17
    @Persona;13;2;0;17
    @SugarYumYum;13;2;0;17
    @kimunlimited;14;1;0;16
    @Kisasa;14;1;0;16
    @LoLysu;12;2;0;16
    @mieniem;12;2;0;16
    @Mizukitty;14;1;0;16
    @Momentosis;14;1;0;16
    @qadri08;14;1;0;16
    @souchan48;12;2;0;16
    @sungjong;14;1;0;16
    @Wira Nugroho;14;1;0;16
    @Angelica;13;1;0;15
    @brunoiaz;13;1;0;15
    @marnchor;11;2;0;15
    @Mayura48;11;2;0;15
    @nad148;15;0;0;15
    @TakaRena;9;3;0;15
    @takin;13;1;0;15
    @Timmeon;13;1;0;15
    @True_Beginner;13;1;0;15
    @Zwetschge;13;1;0;15
    @Kissma;12;1;0;14
    @yuminoya;14;0;0;14
    @Christian;11;1;0;13
    @suzuki;12;0;0;12

    So, our well deserved winner is @mayuoshiri! They had a whopping 7 members correctly predicted (the highest number in the contest), plus six more in senbatsu.

    Thats quite impressive.

    Please contact me so i can order the CD for you.

    No result post without some diagrams, so here you go:


    1. How often was a rank predicted for a member?

    [​IMG]


    The forum was very much split between Sashiko and Kashy to win the whole thing. Otherwise i would call the predictions not bad overall. Three people forgot to name Takamina, though xD.
    Btw, i was using a prediction made from two dozens predictions published in newspapers. It didnt fare bad, but in the end, it was only good for a 20th place. So, we have better experts here at stage48, apparently :).

    2. How often was a member correctly predicted?

    [​IMG]

    Last year, Rena at 5 was the safest bet (basically everybody predicted that), but this year the picture wasnt as clear, as the highest consensus for a rank was about 40%. The biggest surprises were Sae's and Paruru's ranks, as well as the lower senbatsu girls.

    Btw, we had two users with as much as 15 correctly guessed girls (Dasu, and Haruppi, respectively spoiling the perfect result!), but they both failed at predicting correct ranks. Still, quite the feat.

    I hope you enjoyed this game a little. Congratulations to mayuoshiri for winning the whole thing! See you at the next event.
     
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2015
  3. shirocha

    shirocha Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    May 2, 2014
    Location:
    Ontario, Canada
    Oshimen:
    miyazawasae
    Twitter:
    soonyoungi_
    Congratulations! It's making me laugh that I was one point off, everyone on here is so good at predicting, we should take over those newspapers [hehe]
     
  4. veyen

    veyen Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2010
    I think if a member isn't voted for, she should be counted in the stats as rank 17 for that particular ranking. Otherwise, you get weird stuff like Owada Nana in your graph. Or maybe there's a more elegant way to do it.
     
  5. eriri

    eriri Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    May 1, 2015
    Location:
    TX, USA
    Oshimen:
    sashihararino
    I did better than I expected from just using last year's results and this year's prelims. I also just realized that I put Suda Akari instead of Shibata Aya for some reason but I doubt that would have changed my results that much...anyways this was really fun!
     
  6. honeyNUT

    honeyNUT Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2014
    Oshimen:
    watanabemiyuki
    Twitter:
    satominameme
    Well even though my total score isn't anywhere near the top score i'm still proud that i got 15 correctly guessed girls (I was as surprised as Dasu is when she ranked 18)

    I only got Mayuyu and Yuihan's rank right
     
  7. Furukawa_Akane

    Furukawa_Akane Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2014
    Location:
    Southampton, England
    Oshimen:
    moriyaakane
    @rka I can't see the pics clearly cuz postimg is blocked on my computer... But I'm surprised by my results

    And I know I was one of those three people to add Takamina X3
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2015
  8. rka

    rka Future Girls Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Location:
    My Mom's basement
    Oshimen:
    Matsumoto Chikako
    Twitter:
    rka_01
    Btw, @mayuoshiri did not contact me yet. They have been absent since the the day i have announced the results. I will wait a few days more, but then ill give the single to the 2nd place, which is @shirocha
     
  9. rka

    rka Future Girls Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Location:
    My Mom's basement
    Oshimen:
    Matsumoto Chikako
    Twitter:
    rka_01
    Heya, we are now moving down the first price to the second ranking member, which is @shirocha. Please hurry up and throw me your details, so i can order the cd for you.
     
  10. shirocha

    shirocha Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    May 2, 2014
    Location:
    Ontario, Canada
    Oshimen:
    miyazawasae
    Twitter:
    soonyoungi_
    PMed! :D
     

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