Seasonal Sakamichi Polls: Popularity Tournament - the Sakamichi Cup now running

Happy April 1st to you too. It's okay to admit it, we're on page two so no accidental spoilers

 

Just so everyone knows, this will close in three days. About two hours after this Sunday's Sakamichi shows (Nogichu, Keyakake) finish airing. So if you haven't completed it, or want to make changes, please do so soon.

 

I'm extending the deadline to midnight of the 11th JST. So that's this Monday night.

It's only because I don't think I'll be available to press the "stop accepting responses" button.

Anyway. Don't delay, get your votes in and have your opinion counted!

 

I've stopped accepting responses. Analysis will come sometime later this week.

I asked already in the polls, but what do you guys think should be in future polls? Other than popularity, what would you guys like to know?

 

Spring 2016 Sakamichi poll results and analysis

After days of work I've finally put everything together into something marginally more useful than Google site's auto-results. Yippee.

First, here are Google's version of the results from Winter which I'm comparing this with.
And here are their results from Spring, the current poll.

If you prefer a simple and easy to read breakdown of results, stop here, Google's results are what you're looking for. But if you want an intricate overview of results along with the commentary of some guy who's only claim to fame is that he made the poll, then follow me and see how deep the rabbit hole goes.

For the deeper files without me presenting it:
All the data. Crazy amounts of data. It's messy, but it works.
The analysis I wrote and will currently begin copying and pasting from.
An imgur album with all the charts I made (far nicer than on the spreadsheet on GDrive; more detailed than the auto-created charts on Google forms)

Here's the full, detailed, structured analysis, including charts for each category and headings/etc.
Spoilered for length because 2000+ words in total.

Spoiler: Part 1: On responses/responders

Responses across question categories
Keyaki-related polls generally got less (10~15% fewer) responses than Nogizaka ones.
This is an improvement from the last poll were they were at ~25% fewer responses.
Aside from that exception, most respondents answered most questions.

Side note: lots of people chose 'No Preference' for some questions. I'm very happy they did. It’s much better more useful data than the question being left blank, or forcing them to choose one side they don’t actually agree with, skewing results.

Number of potential options chosen per response
Nogizaka – On average, each user chose 8.5 favourite members (compared with 7.2 last time), 3 centre hopefuls (3.3 last time), 4 unders who should be in senbatsu this year, and 7.2 senbatsu members who should be permanent. Keyakizaka – On average, each chose 5.6 favourite members (up from 3.8 last time), 2.3 centre candidates (1.9 last time) and 1.7 potential captains.

Diversity of votes among members
Out of interest I measured the standard deviation of each of the popularity categories. This records how well spread out the values (in this case votes/popularity) are among the options. The standard deviation went up in every category for this poll, especially for the “Keyakizaka all favourites” poll, increasing from 7.8 to 12 since the last poll. Though the Nogizaka polls all had far higher divisiveness, this is probably mostly due to Nogizaka having a higher number of members, with likely some impact from them being around longer.

46 vs 48. The responses (or perhaps responders) moved further away from AKB fans. On a scale from 1 (Exclusive 46) to 7 (Exclusive 48), the average went from 3-2.3. Only 8.9% of respondents preferred the 48g which might be partially my wordings’ fault, though I didn't want to make anyone feel unwelcome.
Nogizaka versus Keyakizaka. Where 1 meant exclusive Nogizaka and 7 meant exclusive to Keyakizaka, the average rating grew from 2.1 to 2.5, representing a much more moderate Nogizaka-preference. Nogizaka exclusives went from 46-to-28%, which shouldn't be a surprise as that is comparing Keyaki's pre- and post-debut eras. The quality of the debut aside, it’s normal to not be interested in a music group with no songs.
Kennin. The responses also grew a little more against 46-48 kennin (From 2.7 to 4%, where 1 means ‘for’, 5 means ‘against’), and went from between indecisive ~ in favour to mostly against Nogi-Keyaki kennin (From 2.5 to 3.7%; 1=’for’, 5=’against’).

Spoiler: Part 2: Management choices

(1) Generation struggles

* How many members should Nogizaka’s 3rd generation recruit?
14.2% were against Nogizaka having a 3rd gen (for now, at least).
Of the rest, the majority (40% of the total votes) wanted Nogizaka to recruit between 7-10 members. Averaging the answers including 0’s (no 3rd gen) returned 8 (7.8) members.

* Should the 2nd generation have guaranteed senbatsu positions? How many?
14.7% disagreed with guaranteed positions for the 2nd gen. On the opposite end, 13.5 wanted the 2nd gen to have proportional representation. The majority chose 1-to-3 positions, with most choosing 3 reps. (1=5.1, 2=31.4, and 3=35.3%)
Average: 2.5 reps (Using 5.4 to represent ‘proportionate’ (11/35*17=5.4) and 0 for ‘none’)

* Should the 3rd generation get guaranteed senbatsu positions?
18.6% said yes, 58.3% said not yet (25.6 for training/fame; 32.7 for 2nd gen) with 23.1% flat out no’s.

* Should Kana Keyaki get the same chances as Kanji Keyaki members?
The largest portion of votes (52.1%) thought they should with 37.3% going as far as wanting the system removed. Most of the remainder (44.4%) believed they should have to work to catch up to Kanji Keyaki by their own efforts first, with the vast majority of those believing Neru already did this.



(2) Inter/intra-group interaction

* Should Keyakizaka members join Nogizaka's senbatsu and coupling songs?
Most respondents said no (59%). 21.2% said yes (mostly conditional) with 19.9% declaring no preference.

* Should Keyakizaka members join Nogizaka's handshake events?
By far, most responses claimed ‘no preference’ (63.5%), though whether it was apathy or that they were conflicted is unclear. Very few said outright yes (5.8%), though 12.8% agreed with attendance for kennin/senbatsu reps. 17.9% said outright no.

* Should Keyakizaka perform at Nogizaka concerts?
Once again, the responses were dominated by ‘no preference’ (53.2%). 35.8% said yes, split between whether they should be fully integrated (perhaps even Nogizaka songs/songs with Nogizaka) or just perform Keyakizaka songs, separately. Few (10.9%) said no.

* Should Nogizaka (or the 46G) perform on AKB CDs?
The majority said conditional yes (53.8%) mostly about maintaining current levels (collabs only; not more often; with some reciprocation, like Keisha suru) with some yeses (7.1%) and a large minority for ending all collabs (39.1%)

* Should 46G members participate in the AKB48 general election (sousenkyo)?
The vast majority of responses said no (91.7%), split between those worried about Nogizaka's identity (58.6), being forced to buy AKB CDs (10.8), and a fair amount of responses who were for a Sakamichi election (22.3%). Of the 8.3% of yes votes, most (5.1%) wanted the 46 group to join so they could take the top spots. (2.5% for interacting more, and 0.6% for helping AKB)

Spoiler: Part 3: Nogizaka

Questions:
All favourites (AF) – choose every member you like.
Oshimen (OM) – choose your number one favourite member.
Centre hopeful (CH) – who would you like to centre the next 3 upcoming singles (multiple answers allowed)?
Perma-senbatsu (PS) – who should be permanent senbatsu (of the current 14th senbatsu)?
Unders promotion (UP) – who from the current (14th single) unders should be in one of the next 3 singles’ senbatsu?

God trio – Ikuta, Nishino and Maiyan.
Ikuchan remains on top for AF, OM, CH and PS. Nanase kept second in AF and OM, though Maiyan close behind for AF, and Naachan lost votes for OM (though her place in 2nd is much more secure there). They found themselves tied for 2nd in PS. Maiyan gained to secure 2nd place in centre hopefuls meanwhile Naachan dropped to 7th from 4th last time (likely a backlash from her 4th solo coupling, with fans wanting to give other girls the more attention).

Demigod Trio – Hori, Hashimoto and Saito Asuka.
Though she lost 3rd for AF to Maiyan, Miona managed to keep 4th, and 5th for OM. She is also 4th for CH, though she is only 8th for PS, not surprising as she is in her first senbatsu for some time. Nanamin fights for official 4th with Miona; close behind her in AF (7th) and CH (5th) but ahead in PS, and OM (both 4th). However Ashu is not to be discounted; though she performed poorly in OM (17th) and PS (13th), she jumped from 9th to 5th for AF and from 8th to 3rd for CH, a huge gain.

Rises and falls.
AF. Some big rises took place in the unders. Particularly, Renachi (30th-23rd) and Chiichan (35-28), probably with some thanks to the singing battle from 46 hour TV. Though perhaps Miria (24-17 (tie)), Himetan (16-10 (tie)) and Ashurin’s (9 to 5) gains should be considered more impressive as they occurred higher up in the ranking (though less ranks were gained). Kazumin’s considerable rise (12-8) also put her in Foreign-Fan-Fukujin, along with Eto (11-9)!
By far the longest fall was Kanarin (22-29), despite her own good performance on 46 hour TV. Though perhaps more dramatic are Reika (6-10 (tie)) and Minami’s (8-12 (tie)), one losing a Fukujin role, one barely staying in!


OM. The biggest gains in followers here were by Rottii and Kiichan both up 9 to tie for 16th and 8th, respectively. By this count an 18-member senbatsu would have Rottii in and Kiichan in Fukujin. Kazumin also gained Fukujin status for this ranking, up from 11-6 (tie), and Sayurin (from 14-8 (tie)). Biggest losses in senbatsu were Sakurai down 7 to 16th and Marika (also down 7) to 19th. Himetan made a huge, unpredicted fall down. She was 13th for most oshi’d last poll but received 0 votes this time. That’s despite rising to 11th in AF and 8th in CH, and coming in 1st in UP.

CH. As stated earlier, the most dramatic rise here is Ashu, gone up 5 from 8-3. Other great jumps were Himetan (16-8) Manattan (17-11), Kiichan (19-14), Ranze (21-15) and Ayane (27-21). The biggest disasters were Ikoma (10-16) and Maichun who fell from 24th to 0 votes.

New questions.
This time I asked if Reika should remain captain and, if not, who should replace her.
She’ll be happy to know she received an 85.26% vote of confidence. Of the remaining 15%, Wakatsuki took the highest portion (3.9) followed by Maiyan (3.2), then by other popular members. Hinachima and Iori were a surprise.

The other new questions were Perma-senbatsu (PS) and Unders promotion (UP), described above.
Some suggested I should have asked for who should be dropped. Well, essentially, that is what the PS ranking is. Wakatsuki, Misa-senpai, Miona, Kazumin and Ashu failed to reach 50% approval, Minami, Manattan, Ikoma and Mattsun got less than 35%, and Sayu and Marikka only got about 10% support for fixed-senbatsu status.
Then to find the new senbatsu I add the scores from the UP ranking.
Himetan got 65% approval so she’s in. For a 17-member senbatsu, Marikka would now be out. Continue until no more unders can outscore senbatsu members. The results can be seen in the below graph. Ikoma would be in an 18-member senbatsu and Manattan would be out of a 16-member one.
Personally I really like the additions. This is what I think fans are looking for.

Spoiler: Part 4: Keyakizaka

Questions:
All favourites (AF) – choose every member you like.
Oshimen (OM) – choose your number one favourite member.
Centre hopeful (CH) – who would you like to centre the next 3 upcoming singles (multiple answers allowed)?

Overall winners.
Techiko took both AF and OM by storm moving to 1st from 4th and 3rd, respectively. She was the only member to get more than 50% approval in the AF ranking. And despite centring the only single and most of the coupling songs, she managed to move up in the CH ranking from 3rd to 2nd.
Zumin takes the clear 2nd place for the overall ranking. Remaining 2nd for both AF and OM, and moving from 2nd to 1st for CH (and 4th for the captain vote).
Neru takes third by entering the AF and OM (tied) rankings at that position. She also took 5th for CH, though that was a drop from 4th (Despite an increase in vote percentage).
The fourth and final overall winner is Sugai Yuuka. Yuuka had the biggest jump this round (all questions, both groups), from 16-4 in the AF ranking, 11-5 in the OM ranking, 7-3 in the CH ranking and, as predicted, she came first by far in the captain vote, with approval of 45% of voters.

Falls.
Berika was close to being an overall winner, but she is in this category instead as she was THE overall winner last round. In the winter ranking she was first for AF, OM and CH. Now she is 5th in AF, 3rd (tied) for OM and 4th for CH (with a huge drop in votes). She has become a divisive member, some enjoying her inability to interact on TV, and some hating it. Her dancing quality also apparently lost her some votes, presumably some of the CH ones (though she does seem to have improved by 46 SHOW).
Ozeki Rika fell far in the AF category, down from 8-15, doing worse in the OM ranking tied for 18th/last. Satoshi fell to last from 15th in the AF ranking, with the only score below 10%, presumably because she hasn’t been very active on TV lately.
Kobayui fell pretty far in the OM category, from 7-15. This is a surprise but she still remains in 10th in the AF ranking, and is fairing okay at 8th (down 2 from 6th) for CH.

Rises.
On a more hopeful note, there have been some impressive rises too. Suzumoto Miyu went from dead last to 11th in the AF category, and from tied-for-last to tied-for-12th in OM (though in terms of votes the growth wasn’t as dramatic). She also now sites on 11th (tied) for CH, up from 15th, and was 5th most voted to be the group’s captain. This is an inspiring rise for someone with a poor start (despite good exposure). Perhaps she gained some votes after her high quality dancing, or perhaps fans liked her loosening up for her self-intro at the debut live.

 

The next poll will be in mid-May. And the topic I'm interested in polling about is: Song popularity. (the normal ranking polls will resume in June-July)

I'm considering doing this two ways but I want feedback first. If you're interested in improving the poll please give honest feedback on what you are interested in:

First is the easy way.

The other way is the hard way

Which would you prefer/think is better? The more detailed one (hard way) or the one that's easier to complete (easy way).

I don't mind doing either. The effort isn't that different, but I'm worried about people not wanting to complete a longer poll.
If you have a preference/suggestion please let me know, including any comments on the proposed methods if you have them.

I'll ask about bonus questions (submitted in feedback from the last poll) closer to the polling date.

Thanks for reading.

 

Would anyone like to help me think of responses for bonus questions for the poll next week?

1. What musical genres would you like to see more of?
2. What kinds of segments would you like to see more of on variety shows/46-hour TV?
3. What types of events would you like to see?
4. What methods for senbatsu selection would you like to see?

Also, can you give me some simple A vs B questions:
e.g. talented vs attractive idols, kojichuu vs keyakake
like that.