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Seasonal Sakamichi Polls: Senbatsu hopes and predictions poll now up! Deadline 1 July

Discussion in 'General Nogizaka46 Discussion' started by kanjo, Mar 26, 2016.

  1. kanjo

    kanjo Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2012
    Location:
    Ireland->Shimane
    Oshimen:
    Nishino Nanase
    Sakamichi Senbatsu Hopes and Predictions Poll! (link)

    Hi, welcome to the seasonal Sakamichi Series popularity polls. I release polls periodically, mainly about member popularity but I like asking other questions too so if you have any ideas please let me know. Check the above link for the current poll, or below for the results of previous polls.

    Ideas
    I'm actively searching for topics for polls for both primary questions and bonus questions. At any time please tell me your ideas and all which topics/bonus questions you found most interesting and want to see rated again a year/half a year later.
    I'm always looking for ideas for themed senbatsu (i.e. vocal senbatsu, model senbatsu, variety senbatsu, etc.)

    Please post any and all questions and ideas you have about the post to this thread.

    Results and Analysis for previous polls
    I'm also available for discussion/more frequent updates on Twitter:
    https://twitter.com/doiyasansubs
     
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2018
    • Winner Winner x 1
  2. riduch

    riduch Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2015
    Oshimen:
    Hirate Yurina
    I fill berika for my favorable keyaki's center post but later changed my mind after seeing the first debut showcase, she was awful, still new though who knows she can be better in the next few months...
    and ikuchan's popularity is not surprising
    thanks for the survey by the way...
    edit: I filled the newer survey. Hope the nogizaka46 LLC hear this out
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2016
  3. kanjo

    kanjo Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2012
    Location:
    Ireland->Shimane
    Oshimen:
    Nishino Nanase
    MAJOR EDIT: First poll results moved here to clean up the OP

    https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1St-0ZXyYBovMoc2hRFGRj4bwLn6udoL5k0NOZwcja2E/viewanalytics

    Popularity
    For popularity, when fans could choose as many members as they liked
    Ikuta Erika (57.6) and Watanabe Rika (38.9) were the most popular members in their groups
    With Nanase, Miona and Maiyan trailing behind in the 40%s for Nogizaka and
    Zumin standing out at 33.6% and Neru, Yurina, Manaka also maintaining notable shares, around 25% each.

    The least popular members of Nogizaka were Karin, Chiharu, Hinachima, though that might change after we've heard them sing!
    Keyaki's least popular was front member Suzumoto Miyu, perhaps the result of negative rumours which are thankfully still yet to be proven. Harada Aoi stands second last for general popularity, though she did fairly well in the oshimen ranking.

    Ikuchan remained on top for the oshimen ranking, but was trailed closely by Nanase (17.1% and 15.1%) leaving all other members in the dust (Maiyan at 3rd with 7.4%)
    Berika also remained on top of Keyakizaka with a more comfortable margin. She took 17.1% of the vote, far ahead of Zumin (11.4%) with the others even further off (Manaka with 9.2%)

    Centreship in 2016
    An overwhelming majority of the votes this round went to Ikuta Erika (48.3%), beating out Maiyan and Nanase's very high scores of 28% (2nd) and 24.7% (4th). Miona has earned her way back to the position with 26%, scoring 3rd. Other popular candidates are Nanamin (20.7% 5th), and Maimai, (granted the wishes of 19.3% of respondents, though not under the happiest of circumstances). Reika, Ashu, Misa, Ikoma, Wakatsuki, Minami, and Kazumin, the remaining Fukujin, all got respectable scores of 10%+

    Keyakizaka's responses got pretty close to the mark with 32.9% for Berika, 24.6% for Zumin, and 22.4% for Yurina. Neru fans got her to 14.5% for 4th but were disappointed she didn't even make senbatsu. Manaka and Kobayui got 5th and 6th place earning their forward positions.

    Sales predictions
    For Nogizaka I only asked about their sales record by the end of the year.
    The responses were split 50-50 between above or below 850k
    with only 12% believing they won't go above 750k
    and 22% believing Nogizaka will reach 1 million this year. Perhaps they planned on Keyaki's inclusion in Handshakes? Ah well, it's nice to be ambitious.

    For Keyaki's sales, respondents were asked what they think the first single will sell
    Roughly 45% believed the sales would be below 200k
    Of the 55% who thought it would be above 200k, half of them believe it would go over 250k. Very few believed it would reach over 350k (6.3%) though it seems possible now. We've only 2 weeks before we know.


    Positions on Nogi vs Keyaki, 46 v 48
    63% of responses were from mostly 46
    18% neutral
    and 19% 48-leaning
    With 24% exclusive 46 and
    5% exclusive 48 but responded anyway for some reason

    More steep for Keyaki (who just started)
    46% were Nogi only
    37.5% mostly Nogi
    10% neutral
    5% mostly Keyaki
    and 2% Keyaki only

    Majority of fans were very against 46/48 kennins
    49% staunchly against it, with only 13% very much for it

    Fans were no more favourable for inner-Sakamichi kennins but a bit less strongly against it with only 39.5% staunchly against the idea, and moderate increases in the "neutral", and "slightly in favour" options.

    Bonus:
    Below are the 14th single senbatsu and unders formations, had they been determined by responses to the poll last winter (Rarin would have been second place (i.e. stage-left of center) if she didn't graduate.)

    View attachment 68885 View attachment 68886
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2016
  4. jujuchuu

    jujuchuu Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2014
    Oshimen:
    Ito Marika
    it's sad about suzumoto. even if it is true (or just an exaggeration by a jealous friend) I think it's understandable in a way to not be 100% thrilled by matsumura's scandal. it doesn't mean you don't like nogizaka or idols in general.
     
  5. honeyNUT

    honeyNUT Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2014
    Location:
    Milky Land obviously
    Oshimen:
    Watanabe Miyuki
    Twitter:
    satominameme
    I think Suzumoto is a great performer, so i gave her a sympathic vote

    Btw, what happened to Suzumoto??
     
  6. kyoto48☀︎☂

    kyoto48☀︎☂ Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    @kanjo
    Great poll! I thought the questions were very interesting and nice, especially the last couple pages, really fun to answer.

    I think you should take out Maimai from the question about who should be captain instead of Reika, because she's gone soon and can't be captain. Other than that it was great ! Can't wait for results
     
  7. oji-sama

    oji-sama Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2015
    Oshimen:
    Kuranoo Narumi
  8. chronosis

    chronosis Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2015
    Oshimen:
    Ikuta Erika
    Great Polls!!
    If you add member photos definitely better than now but that's still great
     
  9. lonely_cookies

    lonely_cookies Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2014
    Location:
    Australia
    Oshimen:
    Takayama Kazumi
    This is actually one of the reasons I really like her, she's honest and she knows what she wants haha! Also it's 100% normal to have a boyfriend and what-not before becoming an idol so yeah, it is sad that people react badly to it...

    Thanks for making the poll by the way, it's very detailed and insightful!
     
  10. kyoto48☀︎☂

    kyoto48☀︎☂ Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Yea, it so weird lol
    Like I'm completely ok with them enforcing that rule after they join a group. But for people to be upset that they have a boyfriend before they even join is just f*cking ridiculous. smh
     
  11. infinitehippos

    infinitehippos Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2013
    Location:
    Nottingham, UK
    Interesting poll ... a lot better than some you see where it's obvious a particular agenda is being pushed.

    I'll admit that my knowledge of Keyakizaka46 at the moment does tend to mean that I need to resort to Wiki48 to link names with faces.
     
  12. NyanNyan's Pet

    NyanNyan's Pet Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2016
    Oshimen:
    Ikuta Erika
    Shoot me, the only one out was Himetan, could have been grand slam, I wouldn't mind even if Ikuchan is not the center. :wall:
    Anyway, you did a great job @kanjo , And I'm very delighted, so far one gorgeous lady is a runaway winner...:cute:
     
  13. kanjo

    kanjo Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2012
    Location:
    Ireland->Shimane
    Oshimen:
    Nishino Nanase
    @infinitehippos
    I tried to remove my own biases. I worried a little that some jokes in the choices might be taken to mean I'm taking sides but so far responses have been good.

    @NyanNyan's Pet
    Yeah, I was surprised how close it was.

    I also did one for Keyakizaka. With all 21 members. Obviously it's going to be close to the real senbatsu as pretty much everyone is in that one too.
    keyakibatsu.png
     
  14. NyanNyan's Pet

    NyanNyan's Pet Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2016
    Oshimen:
    Ikuta Erika
    wow, still need to familiarize myself with Keyakizaka, I recognize 2 faces from their 1st PV on that front row and the top leftmost girl , need to watch some of their show somehow. hopefully I can cast my vote for them next time. that's great, keep it up :approve:
     
  15. kanjo

    kanjo Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2012
    Location:
    Ireland->Shimane
    Oshimen:
    Nishino Nanase
    Keyakitte, Kakenai is my current favourite idol show (it would be Nogidoko, but Nogichuu can be very hit and miss) you should try it out :)
     
  16. riduch

    riduch Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2015
    Oshimen:
    Hirate Yurina
    yup keyakitte kakenai is a very recommended show. You can see girls that doesn't talk too much at the 2015 episodes and slowly breaking their shells and becoming lively and funny, except for that one girl, the most attractive one, who is super introvert but decided to become an idol anyway lol and even her is now funnier with her gag. Not to mention that tsucchi guy who is super funny. Clearly a recommended show to watch
     
  17. NyanNyan's Pet

    NyanNyan's Pet Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2016
    Oshimen:
    Ikuta Erika
    @kanjo I'll check it out for sure, tnx for the recommendation
     
  18. akibapizza

    akibapizza Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2013
    Location:
    7, 107 islands
    Twitter:
    akibapizza
    done! though I don't know much about keyakizaka, I have only watched the eng subbed keyakitte episodes. But they are indeed overflowing with individuality
     
  19. kanjo

    kanjo Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2012
    Location:
    Ireland->Shimane
    Oshimen:
    Nishino Nanase
    Very surprised to see Marikka in first place in every category. Let's she if she can maintain with 10 days to go.
     
  20. NyanNyan's Pet

    NyanNyan's Pet Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2016
    Oshimen:
    Ikuta Erika
    Need to check it and my oshi several times, then I was thinking it's just typo. I'm too slow to figure it out, so I assume I have to greet you happy April 1st:omfg::lol::XD:
     

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