1. Results for our 11th Annual Stage48 Member Ranking are being revealed! Click here to see it and check how your oshimen did! Updated daily.

The 2015 Senbatsu Sousenkyo Exit Poll - Results

Discussion in 'Forum Events' started by rka, Jun 6, 2015.

  1. rka

    rka Rank 81-100 (Temporary Name) Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Location:
    Fanboy-Ville, District Sae
    Oshimen:
    Tanigawa Airi
    Twitter:
    rka_01
    These are the results of the
    The 2015 Senbatsu Sousenkyo Exit Poll

    First, some numbers. We received 4482 votes from 161 Users voting for 97 members. 11 stagers voted more than 100 times, and 60 other users had a two digit number of votes.

    But without further ado, here is your ranking!

    1. Sashihara Rino (788 votes)
    [​IMG]
    2. Takahashi Minami (664 votes)
    [​IMG]
    3. Miyazawa Sae (629 votes)
    [​IMG]

    4. Kodama Haruka (319 votes)
    5. Miyawaki Sakura (310 votes)
    6. Kashiwagi Yuki (217 votes)
    7. Watanabe Miyuki (206 votes)
    8. Watanabe Mayu (129 votes)
    9. Yamamoto Sayaka (122 votes)
    10. Nagao Mariya (112 votes)

    11. Shimazaki Haruka (92 votes)
    12. Yokoyama Yui (77 votes)
    13. Takayanagi Akane (58 votes)
    14. Muto Tomu (56 votes)
    15. Umemoto Izumi (54 votes)

    16. Murashige Anna (48 votes)
    17. Mogi Shinobu (46 votes)
    18. Tsuchiyasu Mizuki (45 votes)
    19. Miyamae Ami (44 votes)
    20. Minegishi Minami (41 votes)

    21. Iwatate Saho (31 votes)
    22. Okada Nana (29 votes)
    23. Mukaichi Mion (26 votes)
    24. Kimoto Kanon (21 votes)
    25. Matsui Jurina (18 votes)
    26. Shiroma Miru (17 votes)
    26. Umeda Ayaka (17 votes)
    26. Shimada Haruka (17 votes)
    29. Anai Chihiro (16 votes)
    29. Tashima Meru (16 votes)
    31. Tani Marika (12 votes)
    31. Kato Rena (12 votes)
    33. Iwata Karen (10 votes)
    33. Tano Yuka (10 votes)

    35. Shibata Aya (9 votes)
    35. Kawamoto Saya (9 votes)
    37. Komiyama Haruka (8 votes)
    38. Kitahara Rie (7 votes)
    38. Matsuoka Natsumi (7 votes)
    38. Shibuya Nagisa (7 votes)
    41. Moriyasu Madoka (6 votes)

    42. Takahashi Juri (5 votes)
    42. Kato Yuuka (5 votes)
    42. Ota Aika (5 votes)
    42. Komada Hiroka (5 votes)

    46. Fujie Reina (4 votes)
    46. Furuhata Nao (4 votes)
    46. Maeda Ami (4 votes)
    46. Sato Sumire (4 votes)
    46. Oba Mina (4 votes)

    51. Hirata Rina (3 votes)
    51. Kitagawa Ryoha (3 votes)
    51. Futamura Haruka (3 votes)
    51. Koishi Kumiko (3 votes)
    51. Nishino Miki (3 votes)
    51. Suda Akari (3 votes)
    51. Yoshida Akari (3 votes)
    51. Tanaka Miku (3 votes)
    51. Uchiyama Natsuki (3 votes)

    60. Akiyoshi Yuka (2 votes)
    60. Fuchigami Mai (2 votes)
    60. Goto Izumi (2 votes)
    60. Goto Risako (2 votes)
    60. Kato Rumi (2 votes)
    60. Matsumura Kaori (2 votes)
    60. Okita Ayaka (2 votes)
    60. Yabuki Nako (2 votes)
    60. Kizaki Yuria (2 votes)
    60. Motomura Aoi (2 votes)
    60. Okada Kanna (2 votes)
    60. Ota Yuuri (2 votes)
    60. Shimono Yuki (2 votes)
    60. Tanaka Natsumi (2 votes)
    60. Yagura Fuuko (2 vote)

    75. Azuma Rion (1 vote)
    75. Ichikawa Miori (1 vote)
    75. Ishida Haruka (1 vote)
    75. Isohara Kyoka (1 vote)
    75. Iwasa Misaki (1 vote)
    75. Jo Eriko (1 vote)
    75. Kamata Natsuki (1 vote)
    75. Kobayashi Kana (1 vote)
    75. Kojina Yui (1 vote)
    75. Kumazaki Haruka (1 vote)
    75. Sakai Mei (1 vote)
    75. Souda Sarina (1 vote)
    75. Sutou Ririka (1 vote)
    75. Takajo Aki (1 vote)
    75. Takeuchi Saki (1 vote)
    75. Tanigawa Airi (1 vote)
    75. Tomonaga Mio (1 vote)
    75. Uchiyama Mikoto (1 vote)
    75. Umemoto Madoka (1 vote)
    75. Wakatabe Haruka (1 vote)
    75. Yakata Miki (1 vote)
    75. Yamashita Yukari (1 vote)
    75. Yokomichi Yuri (1 vote)


    It was a very tight race between Sae and Takamina for 2nd place, and between Haruppi and Sakura for 4th. Both ranks were only decided within the last hours of the submission period.

    Here is a list of all users accepted in this ballot. Unfortunately we couldnt use all submissions, and sometimes we had to use partial votings.

    A(KB)gent048
    ABF48
    akbsnsd
    alabare
    alm0nd
    araishikeiwai
    ArashNine
    AshLeigh.R.Park
    Atsu-nee
    audiophile
    AvanPiper
    blu3min
    Blue Sweater
    Boukyaku
    burningbrita
    celyn
    Chiru
    Chokochoko
    Chrissel
    cinereus
    cmani88i
    combat_warrior
    convenience93
    Corinth
    CutePanda
    David B
    David61
    Delia Pink
    diochristian48
    drazaar
    DreamingPebbles
    eiennoyorokobi
    Escape48
    EvenOdds
    Ezekiel
    Fani Chairani
    fatrain
    Fina Chairani
    firthyn
    FOAKB48
    foodlfg
    fortunehime
    freelunch
    GATX105
    GeoFreak
    gocchisama
    Greed
    hachiroku
    hikariayaka
    hobolic
    HogwartsHokage
    hugoa
    igawihsak
    infinitehippos
    ithebigc
    JanKenP0n
    Jolt Fiend
    jovviny
    kamo
    Kappa
    KatiKat1690
    kaykay
    Kaze
    Kazu-kun
    kirrochan
    kk127
    KPKgirl
    KudoShinichi
    kuity
    Kuura
    KyoN79
    Kyouka
    KyriosArios
    levitski
    lilypie
    lionel90
    Lishizuka
    LNK_Tomu
    LoLysu
    lonely_cookies
    M4YUYU
    marnchor
    MatsalarN
    Mayura48
    mcbcagirl
    mieniem
    Mimi
    Minaeshi
    MocchiMooch
    momochi
    nanabanana
    natlove
    Necco
    Nieru
    nutangmo2
    okayuki
    otoppoi
    pacmanamcap
    pakaulaw
    Parikkuren
    pinkfluffballs
    piyochama
    plomeplome
    popoon
    purekyunkyun
    ranko
    Reveen
    rka
    rockyrex31
    Rurin
    Ryoyuhai
    saki48
    Sakuraism
    Samara Morgane
    sassywagi
    sasuga akb48
    Sayaka.Sakura92
    Shinchan
    shirocha
    sikanwan
    silverbret614
    slimestack
    Snowman81
    SOW48
    spacelion
    Stephen
    SugarYumYum
    sungjong
    SunnySK42
    Support_Idol
    Taichoan
    Takamina powaaa!!
    TakayeAbe
    Takin
    technosworld
    teddbear55
    TheDarlingSharlz
    Timmeon
    t-motion
    toddvanzetti
    todidoki
    too much idea
    True_Beginner
    trxsh
    Tsukiname
    Tsumu
    Tutumon
    Ugokanaide
    USA48
    violin
    Voightkampff
    winxred
    wlerin
    x_lambs
    yamiperv
    YKT
    Yuki88
    Yukinon
    YumeNoRui
    Yuminoya
    Zakarum

    No individual user vote counts
    Please note that individual vote numbers are not revealed, as some votes were incredibly high. Thus, i also dont give numbers for the amount of voters per member (as some individual votes would be easy to deduce).

    Members with more than 10 users voting them
    I can tell you, however, that both Miyazawa Sae had 25, and Takahashi Minami had 26 users voting for them. The power of "last senbatsu" announcements plus dedicated fundraising campaigns, i guess. At least they dont seem to pull a tomochin :).
    Kodama Haruka, Kashiwaki Yuki, Watanabe Mayu had 13 voters each, all other members less than 10.

    Hako-oshi or dedicated wota?
    The majority of users preferred to give votes only to one member (well, not too difficult it you vote once), but only 30 users distributed their votes among more than 2 members. 2 users even couldnt really decide and voted for 20 different members :).

    Money makes the world go round
    Before you interpret the numbers, it is of note that many, many members' results (for example the top 15) are heavily influenced by one or two bulk voters, in some cases making up more than 90% of the total votes. Even for the two members with really high numbers of users, the top 2 voters already were responsible for at least 40% of the total vote result.

    In the end, i wanted to thank all participiants for their submissions and the stuff members for letting me host this. It was much fun, and i hope noone was pissed because of my possibly annoying questions.

    If you feel like your vote hasnt been used or miscounted, let me know. I had a problem with the auto-sorting in excel once, which messed up the sheet a bit. I do think i had fixed it, but let me know if there is a problem.

    See the next post for some statistics.

    /edit:

    Added super late votes for Muto Tomu and Takamina.
     
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2015
  2. rka

    rka Rank 81-100 (Temporary Name) Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Location:
    Fanboy-Ville, District Sae
    Oshimen:
    Tanigawa Airi
    Twitter:
    rka_01
    Here are some graphs i made.
    1. Ranked member count per group / per team

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    2. Vote percentages by group/by team

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]



    3. Rankings sorted by Group

    [​IMG]]


    4. Win/Loss vs 2014

    [​IMG]

    5. Rankings as barchart (>40 votes; <40 votes)

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
  3. DreamingPebbles

    DreamingPebbles Kenkyuusei Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2013
    Location:
    Brazil
    Oshimen:
    Ui Mashiro
    Twitter:
    dreamingpebbles
    Looks like Stage48 is very consistent about our group preferences. It's always AKB > SKE > HKT > NMB > overseas groups, isn't it?
     
  4. Mimi

    Mimi Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2014
    Isn't it the fandom in general? Though HKT is apparently on the rise and I don't remember if they were the second or third most successful group in previous SSK's.
    Hurry with the main course!:corr:
     
  5. rka

    rka Rank 81-100 (Temporary Name) Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Location:
    Fanboy-Ville, District Sae
    Oshimen:
    Tanigawa Airi
    Twitter:
    rka_01
    Its up!
     
  6. Kappa

    Kappa Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    May 28, 2014
    @Mimi Yes that is how fandom is in general. The total votes per group in the 2014 SSK mimic what dreamingpebbles said. AKB>SKE>HKT>NMB.


    The one thing i am surprised about is Shimazaki Haruka. She was #1 in our member ranking but she only got a measly 95 votes. Either they didn't bother to participate in poll or they are all casual fans who don't spend money.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2015
  7. shirocha

    shirocha Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    May 2, 2014
    Location:
    Ontario, Canada
    Oshimen:
    Miyazawa Sae
    Twitter:
    soonyoungi_
    Sae and Takamina yeess <3
    I'm glad to see so much love for Sae on S48~
    This just made me even more excited for SSK :blush:
     
  8. jovviny

    jovviny Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2013
    Location:
    Sweden
    Oshimen:
    Kodama Haruka
    Thank you Rka for all your work! It's Fun with the statistics and all.

    I fel a lot less members here voted this year? I wonder why? I think it's so interesting how "we" vote comparably to the real election results...
     
  9. technosworld

    technosworld Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    May 28, 2014
    Location:
    USA
    Oshimen:
    Furuhata Nao
    still can't believe Sasshi is that popular
     
  10. korfan

    korfan Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Oshimen:
    Kashiwagi Yuki
    Yukirin at #6. Honestly, I expected a better exit poll result for her :( Well, the real result will be definitely better :)

    Sasshi is first. Congratulations to her :1st: Looks like her fans are fired up.
     
  11. rka

    rka Rank 81-100 (Temporary Name) Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Location:
    Fanboy-Ville, District Sae
    Oshimen:
    Tanigawa Airi
    Twitter:
    rka_01
    Money makes the world go round
    Before you interpret the numbers, it is of note that many, many members' results (for example the top 15) are heavily influenced by one or two bulk voters, in some cases going up more than 90% of the total votes. Even for the two members with really high numbers of users, the top 2 voters already were responsible for at least 40% of the total vote result.
     
  12. gotbild

    gotbild Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2012
    Location:
    Göteborg, Sweden
    Oshimen:
    Takajo Aki
    Twitter:
    gotbild
    Both interesting and boring to look at the result. Interesting to see how folks here will vote, boring because it will have very little effect on SSK, and besides I'm a little bit tired of all threads containing polls and rankings. It's not my piece of cake. But it's not a criticism of you who like it, we are all different. There is one more reason for me to not participate here. Having Akicha as #1 would not really show her popularity, neither here nor at the big SSK. That's one problem with power voting and polls. That's all folks, see you tomorrow.
     
  13. Reveen

    Reveen Rank 81-100 (Temporary Name)

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2013
    Location:
    Sunnyvale Trailer Park
    Still blowing smoke out yer ass I see.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  14. rka

    rka Rank 81-100 (Temporary Name) Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Location:
    Fanboy-Ville, District Sae
    Oshimen:
    Tanigawa Airi
    Twitter:
    rka_01

    You begin to sound like a old, disillusioned man. I bet 10 bucks that you actually cannot wait for Akicha's grad announcement, so you can leave all this mess behind you. amirite?
     
  15. infinitehippos

    infinitehippos Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2013
    Location:
    Nottingham, UK
    The sadness when you are the only one who voted for someone combined with the curiosity when there was only you and one other person ...
     
  16. CutePanda

    CutePanda Upcoming Girls

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2015
    surprised to see Kijimako is not in this exit poll. Hope she will rank in sousenkyo
     
  17. broz0rs

    broz0rs Rank 81-100 (Temporary Name)

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2015
    The difference between third and fourth place is surprising. It's literally double the vote count. I had no idea Sae oshis were so dedicated here at S48. I guess it's time for a visit to the Sae thread lol
     
  18. Reveen

    Reveen Rank 81-100 (Temporary Name)

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2013
    Location:
    Sunnyvale Trailer Park
    I'm pretty happy with Haruppi's vote count. This was the first year we did a proper vote campaign and we'll learn from our mistakes and make it better next year. You're right though the Sae oshi are dedicated for sure.
     
  19. jovviny

    jovviny Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2013
    Location:
    Sweden
    Oshimen:
    Kodama Haruka
    I'm also happy about Haruppis result, I think the campaign helped a lot! However, as Rka has pointed out several times, since some "big voters" make up such a large part of some girls votes the result is a bit shewed, I think... I wish more stage48 members had participated... Still happy though!
     
  20. True_Beginner

    True_Beginner Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2013
    Location:
    United States
    Oshimen:
    Takayanagi Akane
    Thank you for posting the results and charts, I want to know the details to stuff like this!

    So even though SKE had the second most ranking members, they only had 5% of the total vote. The big voters were all about AKB and HKT it seems.

    I'm impressed at Rino's vote results, if she had less than 10 people...someone put down some serious wota power there! :)

    To be honest, it would of been pretty amusing if someone less popular got first place due to a few fans, but I guess the popular members still manage to attract the most votes in the end, don't they?

    Also, most people voted for one member, which is surprising since it seems like there are quite a few on the forum that support multiple girls at once.
     

Share This Page