Oftentimes I feel like there is too much emphasis on the HS results. I understand why this is, money and all. But I think it is too crippling for some members. For simplicity's sake, let's say that there are two reasons for a member to have low HS sales. 1) The member is bad at HS, no fun, bad interaction, uninterested face. Fans avoid her. 2) The member knows how to do a HS properly. But fans are not familiar enough with the member, and prefer to visit other members they are more familiar with. It must be hard to overcome scenario 2, especially when management puts you in the back of Under. Because with such a position, the familiarity with the member doesn't increase. There is little chance to break through this pattern. I don't know in what scenario Junna fits, but let's say she is a scenario 2 member. Wouldn't it be beneficial for both member and management to occasionally break the pattern? To give her a senbatsu spot to get her noticed by more fans, which will increase her HS sales, leading to an upward spiral? I admit, I am not too familiar with the HS system (never went to one, never will) and I might have a bit of a simple view of it, missing a couple of scenarios. But whenever I see Junna, I am amazed by her looks, her dance and her acting. And I see others do the same. This cycle should be easy to break, shouldn't it? Or is she a scenario 1 after all?
I'm not sure the 21st single is the best example, because looking at the formation (Mod edit: removed oversized photo) the people whom you expect to be at the row 3/under row 1 border line who are in sembatsu above are: Yuttan, Ayane, and Renka. Kaede isn't in sembatsu. This is the last 21st single HS results that I found (from https://ameblo.jp/seto-kasumi/entry-12423667206.html?frm=theme): So Ayane sold out 30/30 in 5 rounds, Riria in 6 rounds, Yuttan in 7, Renachi in 7, Renka in 8, Hinachima in 8, Kaede in 10. Ranze, Miria, and Kanarin only had 25/25. If you look at the rounds it took for all these people to sell out those same 25 slots, then it's Ayane in 5, Riria in 5, Yuttan in 5, Renachi in 7, Renka in 6, Hinachima in 6, Kaede in 6, Ranze in 6, Miria in 6, and Kanarin in 8. So Ayane was super justified to be in sembatsu, Riria got robbed, and Renka was boosted up (to fukujin!). For the 22nd HS, Kaede's sembatsu can be justified. She's not getting conspicuously boosted up. It looks like a photo finish between Hinachima, Kaede, and Yuttan, and Hinachima got robbed: They used to do this pretty blatantly before the 10th single or so. It was called 思い出選抜 ("sembatsu for your memories", as in, a gift so that the member can at least have a good memory/experience of one sembatsu single) by Japanese fans. I guess it's just too crowded now. You can't move any of the fukujin, and row 3 and under row 1 is super close in popularity. I think an under member has to first get close to that under row 1 territory before they have a chance to get boosted up to sembatsu these days, like Tamami was. In the above 21st and 22nd HS results, you can see there's some distance between Junna and where Kanarin and Tamami are. Even under members (scenario 2 members) these days get decent exposure in Nogi shows and stuff. Not as much as sembatsu, of course, but it's a lot more than under members during Nogidoko. If anything, IMO being in sembatsu gives members a chance to raise their fame *outside* of Nogi fandom rather than within. Within Nogi fandom, I think all under members are already well known.
i just made the outline of it. from what its seem for the current hierarchy, with some estimation perma-fukujin: Shiraishi, Ikuta, Asuka, Hori, Hoshimina, Manatsu Momoko, Yoda, Ume, Zukki (third gen established?) perma-senbatsu: Kazumin, Shinuchi, Matsun, Reika, Inoue, Kubo(soon to be established) rotational, senbatsu battle royal: Kii-chan (soon to be established as perma?) Ayane, Miria, Renachi, Hinachima, Ranze, Tamami, Renka, Den-chan, Riria --Nakada's line--behold you need to pass this one for be eligible- Hazuki, Ito Junna, Ayati, Reno, Maaya, Kotoko
I think what sambelteri mentioned is you should look at 21st single HS to determine the outcome for 22nd single senbatsu, because that's what management can based on. Kaede's HS result for 21st single was not so good as compared to Ranze, Miria, Rena, Renka, Ayane, Higuchi. Yet Kaede was the one that made it to senbatsu for 22nd single, not the other girls. Here's the result for the 10th round which Kaede managed to sold out slower than those girls. http://stage48.net/forum/index.php?...de-ikou-2018-08-08.22177/page-42#post-1519354
I think you misstook my point. But what i want to say is, Ayane, by HS sales in 21st HS event is more popular than Kaede but Kaede is the one who get senbatsu on next single not Ayane. Imo, with Kaede, like @Halyup said management is put a gamble on her. Like 'lets put her on senbatsu and see what happen next' and for me it's succes. Her sales getting stronger. I believe it's the case with Renka in 21st and Tamami in 23rd.
they should at least spare 1 senbatsu spot to rotate. 2nd gen should has been in senbatsu for once since 2years ago if they keep rotating one or two spot. let be honest, 3rd rows arent that great of spot especially in large senbatsu aka more than 16 or 18.
Rotate row 3 by equal representation by gen with same level of popularity = Example - Renachi . Ayane ; Miria Ranze . Nakada Hinachima . Riria Tamami and Renka .
In the next single there will be about 2 debuts, especialy with the new faces of 4th gens. Combined with Zukki coming back, and the fact that this single there were 22 slots senbatsu, and it's been awhile since Ranze got a position too, 4 people are likely to drop. It's gonna be Riria, Tamami and Renka first. Denchan is next, unless someone took hiatus (or grad lol) but even in that case, there'll probably just be more debuts (like Rena) as Denchan did not sealed the deal. Also if there's anyone who's treated unfairly, it's gotta be Miria and especially Ranze. If there's a 2nd gen debut, it'll be Rena.
I'm face palming myself. You guys are right. They boosted Kaede up after the 21st single HS for the 22nd sembatsu. Looking at the 22nd HS results, they boosted Tamami and kept Hinachima, Ranze, and Renachi in under for the 23rd sembatsu. Mattsun is perma-fukujin IMO. Agree with your rotational tier very much and that Kanarin seems to be somewhere between rotational and perma-under, which means that if your HS results aren't higher than Kanarin's, it's unlikely you'll get a chance to rotate into sembatsu.
Kubo is already established. From the very start she's been giving great results along with Yoda, Yamashita and Umezawa. Only her haitus put a halt on her momentum. She's perma Fukujin imo. Kiichan should be perma Senbatsu from here on out. I read back several arguments about Kaede. I agree with above posts. If HS result is one basis, then Ayane should have been treated the same. They should just drop Tamami, Renka, Riria and Denchan next single. I would definitely keep Ayane and Miria over them. I think Junna and Kotoko are almost certain to end up like Karin-chan. Rena is floating but it doesn't look good. With several 4th gen showing good results and only few 3rd row to move, what chance do they have? Even the likes of Ranze and Hinachima are having a hard time coming back. Look out for the five 4th gen frontliners. Hopefully it won't happen next single but by now it's obvious who's gonna have their Senbatsu debut. With many strong candidates, Senbatsu is getting bigger but there's not enough space for everyone. Actually even Nakada right now is behind 'that' line. The only consideration I see is her past Senbatsu selection.
for me i think matsun could be placed with ease on third and (2nd row) fukujin that's why i believe she's more as regular/perma senbatsu. yeah iam actually agree with you. i put that way because it was pretty recent so i personally feel it may need to see them a little while with caution before i can be so sure. the inclusion of 4th gen will kind of messed up the current climate and pattern ofc but we shouldn't forget graduation will also definitely play role. imo nakada is kind of special case actually. she is left out on current battle royal not she can be tiered with the current perma-under. it wont be so surprising for me if anytime she get senbatsu callback regardless her HS sales assume the projection is right, then nogi currently has around 17 undisputed for regular senbatsu, which mean if we follow current concept of 22 in senbatsu then assume the likely two slot for whoever 4th gen that will be pushed, there only three vacant slot left for non regular. i do feel they shouldn't prioritize third gen(which mean we ousted denchan, renka, tamami and riria out of contention) next occasion , instead , if the mgmt really has good intention with their current narrative in nogichuu. but even if that happen its still way tight to see ayane-miria-ranze-rena-and also hinachima. the first three names is probably the likeliest tho' obviously it wont be guaranted.
Holy shit I just watched the recent Nogichuu episode... It was painful to watch, completely changed my view... Looking back to the time when 2nd gens joining in, there were lots of senbatsu with no 2nd gen debuting, and even if there was it'd only be 1 new member. Totally different to how 3rd gen is being treated now, when they frequently get 2 new 3rd gen debuts in a single. I think mgmt will push 2nd much stronger along with 4th gens now that this episode is aired. If no one grads, I even expect some members who we consider "established" to get demoted...
Many would be happy if that (sudden 2nd gen push) happen including me but sadly the best we can expect is Ranze coming back at the expense of either Miria or Ayane, even both. Those established names are safe. They won't gamble that much just to make up with 2nd gen. But if they drop 3-4 lower 3rd gen and doesn't include 4th gen yet then we will see more 2nd gen Senbatsu next single. At least there will be hope for Rena and Junna. Long shot. If Karin didn't speak out on previous episodes, I wonder if we'll be getting this 2nd gen episode.
IMHO, I disagree regarding Mattsun. I think she is front row if it weren't for her scandal. I suspect it's a management policy to "punish" post-scandal girls by at least demoting them by "one row" in position. With the amount of stuff she's currently in, her in 3rd row would make no sense to me. Agree regarding Kubo. She should be perma-fukujin as well, but she just got back from hiatus, so we'll see. Also agree regarding Kanarin. Her HS keeps her in under, but it wouldn't be a surprise if she got sembatsu at any future single. Generally agree, yeah, if they push gen 2, they will only really push the ones that are already at the row 3/under row 1 borderline, like keep Ayane in row 3 and boost Ranze and Miria above the other borderline members to sembatsu. Renachi is also on the border, so I expect her to be given a sembastu debut soon. Junna though, her HS is too low. But once gen 4 come in, some of the row 3 borderline members will be in under, of course.
yeah it mainly because her scandal in the past i believe that makes her will be never has chance on the first row anymore, stuck the best at 2nd. Now i rethink it back, guess you're right about matsun , not as third row material. My memory just not serve me right to remember she never put back on the third row anymore since harujion. well perhaps it may never happen but who knows since again kana's has thing that other youngster isnt, her long bittersweet track record and experience, kinda hold cult status among fandom. The score might be not came as big but there certainly long time loyalists at there i believe. I know this sound bias but as graduation twist for her, maybe. again it wont be so surprising if that happens. In other side i do hope graduation without senbatsu for the OG(like misa and yuttan had) not becoming a habit.
Agree on Kanarin. What do you mean by graduation without sembatsu for OG? I don't remember Misa not being in sembatsu during her grad, and Yuttan is neither sembatsu nor under for the 23rd single but I guess "post-grad" status. I'd say management is still giving "grad presents" for sembatsu with grad concerts for Waka, Misa, and a photobook for Yuttan, Marika. Guess not for perma-unders though, like Karin, Chiharu, etc. Feels like for fukujin, they give grad concerts, and for row 3 regulars, a photobook if they haven't had one yet.
i think he means that OG member should be on senbatsu on her last appearances (?). well technically misa grad when they doesnt release any new singles, but if there's a single atm im still 100% sure she'll be involved. while yuttan there's a possibly chance that she decided to not participated in anything from the latest singles, because she's also not in any unit at Sing Out ! about everyone should taste the senbatsu, well to be fair i might sound harsh but i'm little bit leaning toward against that decision. the days when everyone taste senbatsu is long over. maaya,kawago,rotti,noujo had taste senbatsu was on a very early days when the competition not as high as this days. of course its debatable to give one send off for the veterans or not, but i believe the management decision to prioritize 3rd/4th gen instead of 1st/2nd gen is a good decision. its always been an overlong problem beneath idol groups that fans cant move on to new era, but when nogi were likely successful to drive their fans to the newer era, i believe i should be grateful with it. is HS results are too much to be considered for deciding the decision ? yes of course. HS and Goods sales are the only 'transparent' way to gauge popularities among the girls. and to be fair for me its more better than 48G SSK bullshit. and in fact all the strongest seller already on senbatsu at the latest single, even some of them are still on the unders. indeed everyone was deserved to taste senbatsu. but honestly, theres popularity factor which sounded really harsh. and im not expecting fairness in this industry. its always been a mess among majority of fandoms when ikoma stayed forever in senbatsu or kanarin enter senbatsu instead fresher girls. dont get me wrong, i dont hate them especially i like kanarin. but end of story its a competition, its not keyaki/hinata who everyone will be on senbatsu. of course there's a winner and there's a loser. and lets be honest for me, the concept between senbatsu-unders which keep me to like nogi from the rest of sakamichi groups. to be honest, i dont really shed a tears of sympathy to the lesser seller. the fact they just didnt interesting, either visually or to be talked with. Nanamin and Nanase would never give you a girlfriend fishing treatment like Manattan,Ringo,Misa or even Zukki gave. but they still considered one of the best seller nogi ever got. oh but they are cute, honestly who followed them on earlier days, both of Nanase and Nanami are not really pretty at all on their early. TLDR im satisfied so far with mgmt decision, its proven by how they keep gaining new fans + maintaining old fans for the past 3 years. i see this group growing from being called budget AKB until they called it the best idol group in japan. and i would support anything they do as long it for the sake groups. of course i also have the mentality of oshi came first instead group. but look how success and keep rapidly grow this group, i'm slowly accepting if some of my favorites should be sacrifice for the sake of the group.
yeah tbh im prefer if they just involve in the latest single not to be grad in between. Well maybe at 22th single last year it Already flood with number of graduates that make the other must postponed their announcement idk. i just dont prefer if that happen again for other perma members in senbatsu, the timing. Grad ceremony or presents like PB just another things that imnot have problems with
I think it's just timing. Singles and graduation dates not synchronizing. IMO it's not a big deal, otherwise, I feel like you're asking for graduation dates to stick strictly to the end of single dates (and the beginning of the next single). Or I'm still not understanding lol... Misa graduated during the 22nd single. Yuttan graduated after the 23rd single was announced or around that time, but officially, the 22nd is her last single, so she isn't "officially" involved with the 23rd single. I don't see a problem with that, unless you force them to graduate on the exact date when management officially transitions from the 22nd to the 23rd single. You could do that, but I don't see the necessity. If you do that, then every transition date between singles will have 2-4 members graduating at the same exact time, which management may want to avoid. Management will always want flexibility if they can have it, and in this case, members want that, too, because members want to graduate when it's good for them, too, instead of being limited to 1 day per 3 or 4 months. Not to mention that technically, CMIIW, Waka and Nanase, as well as Nojo and Kawago I think, also graduated "in the middle" of the 22nd single period, and that was fine, too. Additionally, I think the individual members have so much going on that forcing their graduation schedules to specific days dictated by the singles is too much trouble. Because we're not talking about Nogi activities only, we're also talking about things like TV drama shooting, stage play rehearsals, CM campaigns, magazine photoshoots, stuff that is really hard or impossible to reschedule because there's a counterparty. Easier to schedule the member's official Nogi grad date around the member's activities instead.
well, it's never a huge deal to begin with, trivial as it is, again just the timing that I don't personally prefer. in context many of OG right now we believe already --sort of-- take their time and determine it long before, like misa had considered a thing a year back if I'm not mistaken. so i don't see if mgmt (as they did) cant setup these, mainly talk, 'announcement date' thing just around new single campaign and make the aforementioned single as their last involvement, just as cliche tradition because its not so enjoying for caught like few months later, feeling to know after actually that was her last senbatsu while contradict-ly ofc I know thing just matter of time. but then say that misa's case as an example was inevitable for whatever legit reasons I'm not even that mad for this kind of exception, never was as I remember. it shouldn't be a call for "strict" tradition either. the case with the kaerimichi's graduates just way different while i can understand the probability that was one of the cause, yet to say 2018 as a year. the nogi-related-but-non-senbatsu activities not much feel as a debunker for me because obviously they still can maintain that after the announcement date was released.
