Unpopular Opinions

In what sense? Sales probably not if for no other reason than the other groups simply don't have number of members to match Nogi's sales.
FWIW "Silent Majority" is easily the most popular and best known Sakamichi song among the general public, so I guess that's a win for Keya.

 

Yeah, Keya's singles reached more the general public than Nogi's ones. But I still think Nogi's more powerful and marketable to the gp. You see Nogizaka members in lot of popular and famous commercials in Japan, they're everywhere. They're in lot of tv shows and current and graduated members are well known and seen everywhere in movies, dramas, theaters, commercials etc.

Keya seems less marketable from that pov and it seems they had a strong momentum but they're currently struggling and losing it, while AKB and Nogizaka groups did the opposite: they needed some years to reach the peak.

 

Maybe Hinatazaka, but not Keyaki. Although Keyaki's music is more popular with the public, Nogi's members are more known and more marketable. That said, Nogizaka and Keyaki/Hinata have different managements so that plays a part in this too.

 

For reference, the Nikkei Entertainment idol rankings from June:
https://twitter.com/maiyanee/status/1135054175174299648
The biggest jump for most Nogi members was from ’17 to ’18, but the growth from ’18 to ’19 is actually comparable to previous years. So if no one graduates (a big “if”), the predicted trend is still upwards.
Only 1st gen show up in the top idols for both the public recognition and “power ranking” lists. 2nd and 3rd gen only start to show up towards the bottom of the public recognition survey: Shinuchi, Hori (13%) Mizuki, Hoshino, Momoko (12.5%) Yoda (11%) Umezawa (9.5%). Can these girls (or the 4th gen) rise to the top after the 1st gen graduate? I don't know. For the sake of the group’s longevity, I do think they should be promoting newer gens more consistently.

I don’t see Asuka graduating anytime soon though. So if no other girls become huge, then in a few years, the faces of Nogi and Keyaki are going to be Asuka and Techi – and Techi is currently ranked higher than Asuka. I think it’d be difficult for Keyaki to broadly exceed Nogi for at least another generation, for the reasons mentioned by the posters above. But in the absence of Ikumai, it's possible that Techi could rise even higher and become The Idol that everyone talks about, thus generating headlines to make Keyakizaka at least more “interesting” to the public than Nogizaka. That could be one reason why Keyaki’s strategy still seems to be going all in on Techi. But I don’t want to start more arguments about that strategy, so I’ll leave it there.

 

I understand where you're coming from, with tons of content like musicals, photobooks and modeling stuff that Nogizaka members are currently working with, there's many things going on for the girls individually. It's great that they're continuously raking in $$$ like they're expected to. It's the group's current/future music and variety, the lack of the personality aspect that's dwindling and will cost them in the long run, losing the origin of what Nogizaka was built on. From how I see it, the group is overflowing with newer gen members as models, their faces on top magazines, tv shows and movies, indirectly creating an imbalance between their outside activities and the much needed variety show entertainment. It's the "idol" aspect, the fun to watch while facing variety and overcoming obstacles (single campaigns aren't enough) challenges as a group, side of later gen+ Nogizaka that is currently inadequate and missing out on.

 

I think it will be a nice way to steer discussion or exchange opinions with

. are nogi actually already hit their peak? especially in terms of music: sales-wise, reception-wise, and the number of fans.
. or will there be more to come, even after top 1ki graduates?

I agree with the pattern mentioned by stecola and Nogi is likely already hit the wall in that regard. the challenge left is probably keeping their place among the elites, regular top 5 / top 10 in years to come,
if there some that share optimism the second point i think it will quiet a challenge for mgmt.

 

I agree with some things here but disagree with a lot. Your defintion of a filler song seems to be summer songs. Then if someone comes along and says their definition of a filler song is [winter] songs (that are slow and the mood matches the winter or whatever), would you have a problem with that? You pick summer, they pick winter. I don't see a difference or a reason for choosing either like that. I agree that putting Maiyan at default center would've dominated the rest of the group too much and management was smart to avoid that. You list Sakanatachi and Mukuchi Na Lion as good b-side songs. So it looks like you like slow songs and don't like fast songs. But you also say that currently they're doing "mature filler songs." It seems like your definition of filler songs is basically "songs you don't like." That's just personal preference.

I have personal preferences, too, regarding music. But to argue about the group's history and overall strategy and stuff by calling a huge bunch of their songs "filler"... By my personal preference, a huge bunch of Nogi songs are songs I don't care much about, too, actually, so we are alike there, but personal preference is obviously super subjective, so I can't describe the group's trajectory by my personal preference of their songs and neither can anyone else, either. The only way to try to be objective about their songs in regards to the group's strategy and trajectory is to look at stuff like sales numbers and the way management uses the song - do they use it at Kohaku (like Kimi No Nawa Kibou) and big music shows or concerts all the time, do they keep bringing it back, etc. Do fans vote for those songs during fan-vote segments, etc.

I agree that Nogizaka is entering an awkward time, of course. The transition from Naachan, Maiyan, and gen 1 to the next era is the biggest challenge to Nogizaka management ever. But I disagree on the details. Yes, they relied on gen 1 a lot in the past, which caused gen 2 to be shafted. But gen 3 was pushed well and they obviously are pushing gen 4 now. But gen 4 are not "sitting on top of" gen 3 and Sakamichi trainess are definitely not "stacked on top of" gen 4.

For the later gens joining, they have less attention on them relative to other fukujin/sembatsu to promote themselves, but now that the group overall is so big, they still do have a lot of venues to promote themselves. What I mean is, a new Nogi member today will have less air time than an established old gen fukujin member in front of them, sure; but that new Nogi member today has more overall exposure and venues to promote themselves than when that old gen fukujin member was only a new gen 1 back in the very early era of Nogi. Gen 3 and even now gen 4 are in the Sailor Moon musical. Management couldn't have dreamed of getting their gen 1s in the Sailor Moon musical only one year after Nogi debuted. Gen 3 had their own show for a while (Nobi Nobi Nogizaka?) and their own season of Nogibingo. There's also air time for all members in stuff like Showroom, a lot more radio appearances, etc. Also, you're saying how the newer gens keep replacing the older gens without giving people enough time to promote themselves. But... that's exactly how you help any member promote themselves - by at least temporarily giving them the spotlight over more established gens. They didn't do enough with gen 2, I agree with that, but to promote gen 3, they have to at least temporarily give more stuff to gen 3 than the older two, and now they at least temporarily give more stuff to gen 4 than the older three. Each gen was given extra time to promote themselves. I'm hoping you see the tension in the argument here: At one point you noted how new gens joining have a tough task because they're joining in the middle of a project. But then at another point you criticize how newer gens replace and "sit on top of" older gens. But... the latter is exactly the solution to the former! If the problem is that newer gens have a tough time joining in the middle of a project, then the solution is to temporarily give the spotlight to the newer gens. Management gives them a temporary push, and then like 1-2 years later "merges" them with the group as a whole.

I think the actual thing you're criticizing, other than gen 2 being shafted, is that they're recruiting new gens too quickly every time. I actually can somewhat agree with this. I think gen 2 was too quick. I think gen 3 was good timing. Gen 4, I'm not sure yet. IMHO the timing of recruiting gen 4 was fine, but the gen 4 push into front row and other official activities came earlier than I expected.

I agree that the transition from Maiyan and the other big gen 1 members to the next era will see plateauing of Nogi growth. Whether the next stable ground will be gen 2 or 3... or gen 4 ... Well, it seems the problem you have is that gen 4 has just come too quickly. I don't disagree that gen 4 has come quickly, but whether gen 2 and 3 is enough to be the stable ground for the next era without gen 4 OR whether adding gen 4 now will strengthen that future stable ground even more, I'm not sure. IMHO, I think the gen 4 strategy has so far worked out well for management.

IMO, the Asuka = dark thing is overrated, or overhyped. I don't think she's actually really "dark." She's sarcastic, sharp-tongued, good at banter, laughs a lot on camera. She wants to subvert expectations (that come from looking like a dainty doll), which is why she's sarcastic and says she's "dark," and probably also why she chose to play the drums. Compare that to Naachan. She's gone on big primetime talkshows and sat there hardly talking or making funny comments because she actually is that shy and isn't that good at banter (and lets Maiyan and Manatsu handle the talk). That's why that "Naachan needs to be protected" thing has stuck - it's actually kind of true, and I guess that's why management gave her the songs they gave her. Regarding Asuka's songs, Sing Out is kind of a separate thing (aiming for the Olympics, I imagine), and Hadashi was 100% aiming for that summer song thing, but Jikochu was designed for Asuka if you ask me. "Let's Be Self-Centered" is the meaning of the title, and while I don't think Asuka is self-centered, her sarcastic, anti-burikko, sharp-tongued persona goes with that title. I think the reason why Asuka has gotten summer songs is because she's gotten to the center position around the time there have been big graduations (Nanamin, Naachan) or big end-of-year projects (Asahinagu), so management for whatever reason doesn't want to give Asuka a solo center during the winter. But they want to give her a center, so they give the summer one to her. This also ends up with that fan theory of "whenever Asuka centers a song, the next one is a big grad song," - that's just because Asuka tends to center summer songs and big graduations/projects tend to be winter to sync up with Kohaku and other end-of-year stuff. I don't think giving Asuka a "dark" song will necessarily mean the song will be better than her happy songs. But I do think that repeatedly giving a member the same season when she's center does leave an odd feeling. A variety of songs is obviously better.

While I kinda agree about Misa, Marika, and Yuttan, they're all in Nogi LLC and doing fine, and they did a lot of stuff while in Nogi, too. Misa is an exclusive model for a magazine, Marika did a solo art exhibit, and Yuttan has co-MCed a radio show since the 5th single or so.

I also am a gen 1 fan, but I still do think they've done a good job of incorporating new gens overall. But ya, there's a difference between Bananaman bringing out the qualities of a member, which they had a lot of time to do for gen 1, and no Bananaman doing that on other shows and venues.

I think I agree. Any music production record label company talent agency or whatever can hold auditions and recruit a group of good-looking girls. That's why so many idol groups exist. The difference is whether that group can become more than that, more than just a group of good-looking girls. That's why Nogi is so successful, because they achieved "more than just a group of good-looking girls," whatever that is. Without the older gens, the rest of Nogi would be like any other group of good-looking girls that we don't know of that has been recruited by a company. The older gens of Nogi absolutely do keep the boat afloat in that sense. Transitioning from the older gens to younger gens as the older gens graduate is necessary, of course - the question is just how well can management do it. The most important members from the beginning, like Maiyan, Manatsu, Sayurin, Nanamin, Kazumin, Naachan, Ikuchan, Ikoma - I count 4/7 of those as starting out already as older syster-type members. Maiyan, Nanamin, and Sayurin were post-high school by the 1st single, and I think Manatsu also joined after she finished high school(?). When Nogi was in its growth phase up to before gen 3 joined, almost all of the fukujin were in their 20s IIRC. Nogi has been historically pulled forward by its older sister-type members, who are college-aged and older. Transitioning to the next generations is super important, but if you just try to let all the older gens graduate quickly, you're left with nothing but just another group of good-looking girls, which in show business I imagine is a dime a dozen.

Honestly, anything can happen. As others have noted, Keyaki's Silent Majority has already shown that one huge mega hit can potentially alter the landscape. And major scandals and major unexpected graduations can also of course change the landscape. (IMO, while Hirate is the musical and performance power of Keyaki, Neru represented what Keyaki could have been if it wanted to develop a variety image and culture like Nogi. Losing Neru was huge.) The one thing that IMO anchors each group is their MC. Bananaman are giants. And Hinata has Audrey to thank for. Tsuchida and Sawabe in theory should have no problem promoting Keyaki (all six of these guys are very well-known on TV), but for some reason, it hasn't created the same magic.

When you say top 5/top 10, do you mean top 5/top 10 of all female idol groups? Or like, top 5/top 10 of... I don't know, all musical acts, like in terms of revenue?

Anyway, I think people throw around phrases like, "They'll decline like every other group after a while" too easily. That's an easy result and even easier to say. If that happens, then it happens, ok. The interesting challenge is if they can maintain their current plateau. If they can maintain the current level for however long they can, that in itself would be very cool.

 

Yeah, I agree with what you said about Asuka and the songs that she was assigned to solo-centered. Indeed, having a larger range of music genres for her when she's considered for center is very much needed, I admit that I used the word "dark" vaguely and poorly. As you said, music is subjective so I would love to see her pull off a mix of something like Sayonara no Imi and 24th single, hopefully strongly felt like her personality. She is very capable when it comes to crunch time and as a 7+ year veteran idol.

Aside from Nogichuu/Bananaman's time spent on cultivating Nogizaka's entertaining side leading to a good relationship for variety shows, I forgot to mention that NOGIBINGO! is another huge factor that increased Nogizaka's quirks/charms since it first aired. I can't really say the same for the some of the episodes from the last two or so seasons since they seem questionable/last minute planned out imo, going to various locations, acting skits out, etc. instead of focusing on getting to know more about the new gens (season 8 definitely did that well, more exposure). Timing really is the key to this group's future, as well as the type of opportunities that they're receiving at the moment.

 

i speak it as musical acts in general
revenue probably is still the reliable way to measure their influence

i think that just fine, in pessimistic way of thinking. speaking of tendency, things like happen everywhere. prophetic it may but im also disagree if it start sound doctrinated, truth that bound to happen because we cant be sure predict the future, only assumption. who know nogi can become the next Sazan lol. unlikely
i personally can't see nogi or every other sakamichi reach beyond 1m in sale single, for example. this probably as far as they can grow in number. so what now left as you implied is keeping the longevity. dip may inevitable in the future, but as long they can float, circulated their influenced in japanese showbiz.

 

I also think it is just healthy for a group's popularity to just move sideways or maybe even dip a little every now and then. It's just like the stock market. If a certain stock only rises, at one point the euphoria changes into scepticism and that's usually the end of the ride. So far, I just see a steady and healthy development with Nogi, and the next single just might blast them off to new heights.

 

She's used the word "dark" to describe herself before, so I don't think you used it vaguely or poorly at all . I agree something like Sayonara No Imi and Kaerimichi would be good. Though to be honest, I think those two songs would be good for anyone

Yeah, staying in the top 5/10 in revenue of all musical acts for a long time would be really amazing. There will definitely be some dips right after big members graduate, but I'm sure management is aware of that.

I've said this before somewhere, but one of the biggest unknowns is what will happen if/when Bananaman leaves Nogichu (identically for the other Sakamichi groups, if any of the MCs of their main shows change). Bananaman has so far been huge in growing and maintaining Nogi's longevity IMO.