Discussion in 'General AKB48 Discussion' started by Kuchi-Chan, Nov 6, 2013.
Who do you thinks gonna leave? I reckon it'll be Mii-Chan or Tomochin next....ideas anyone??
Erm, Tomochin (Itano Tomomi) has already graduated ... and I don't seen Mii-chan leaving that soon given that she is the team captain of the newly formed Team 4 ...
I would not be surprised if we saw both Yuko and Nyan-nyan graduate within the next 6 months personally. With her drama work I could see Yuko moving on and getting a send off at the spring concert with the seond half of RH2014 next year.
someone unexpected can graduate early if they have a scandal. good thing AKB Scandal festival has stopped already. the most likely to graduate next is "OSHIMA YUKO". Kojiharu could graduate next year but since she has a subunit NO3b. it might still hold her back but we don't really know.
2014 potential AKB members to graduate
1.Oshima Yuko - Aki-P had already given his signal to already let go of Yuko and graduate AKB finally.
she said on a recent show that featured her that there is no longer any challenge for her in AKB. nothing to make her passion burn more, no more pressure and she already did everything that can be done and accomplish in AKB.
2.Kojima Haruna - signs of her graduating sooner is being shown lately, on interview she said she's thinking of graduating. and finally after so many years had a solo center AKB single.
3.Takahashi Minami - Mujack Takamina SP suggest of her wanting to go solo sooner and on Kousagi Dojo 2012 episode. Takamina is ask how long can she still be on AKB and she answered 1-2 years more. 1 year had already passed since she said this.
if these 3 Big names in AKB all graduate next year. I don't know what would happen to AKB.
Oh I hadn't realised Tomochin left...whoops
Naturally, all original members are due for graduation, with the exception of Mayuyu and Yukirin who might be asked to stay for another 2 years.
What makes me wonder is that the no3b girls are the only one remaining from first generation. I guess its kind of a contract thing between them and their agency. That is why i do not know who will be graduating next among the super senbatsu. I guess they all have contract boundaries to respect. But it can be anyone, really.
What i predict is though:
We will have many graduations from the 3rd-7th generations midlevel girls, to give room for all these draft rookies and KKS promotions. After draftevents we are going to have well over 90 members.
I'm thinking the same, though there are girls like Amina and Suuchan that have explicitly said that they're not going to graduate in the near future. Kitarie, Wasamin, and Mocchi might be ready, what with their respective projects (dramas and solos) and all. Girls that have never ranked in the sousenkyo might consider leaving as well, since from here on it'll be tougher-- there are rising sister group members and newer gens that AKS are so keen on to push.
about no3b girls, with rather no activities and hiatus from it, I think it is just coincidence. though Kojiharu already talked about graduation, she still uncertain when is the right timing to do it. Takamina still do her job as soukantoku and miichan just promoted to team 4 and become captain.
I place my bet on Yuko, Kojiharu and Yukirin. in my opinion, they already reached their peak at AKB and already gained everything. they also already have solid platform to the next step.
though I also agree there is also large possibility of many 3rd-7th gen girls to graduate
I think I once watched KK said that she will the last of the 2nd gen to be graduate.
I have a feeling that KK might stick around till she breaks Nacchan's record for most theater performances. She only needs 26 more to tie up with Nacchan, so that could keep her from calling it quits till around early 2014.
Team K has a bunch of members ripe for graduation. They have three of the five remaining 4th gen (Chiichan, Amina, Mocchi), four of the six remaining 5th gen (Uchii, Kitarie, Myao, Chikarina), plus KK and Yuko. Some of them might graduate before the new stage starts on January 31, so I'm thinking the next to leave will probably be somebody from Team K.
Yuko,Kojiharu,Akicha and maybe Myao (i hope not [sweat] ).
I don't think Takamina and Miichan are going to graduate anytime soon-Takamina's place in the group is too important and I think she still wants to stick around and leave when she's satisfied that the group can survive without her.For Miichan,she recently got promoted back and I doubt she'll leave because Team 4 needs her.
I doubt Takamina will wait that long for new gens to catch up. it's not so easy for new members to got that popular so fast. it will take some time and the right amount of push for new gens to reach the same level of popularity that the senbatsu members now have. I think Takamina gave herself a time limit if AKB new gen members can't catch up for 2 years she leave AKB for good. I think she did said on Kousagi Dojo that if her solo single is very successful and have a good offer for her to go solo she will leave AKB in a one-year span. and I agree with rka on mid-level or Undergirls level members. I know they already feel the transition of members going on in AKB. new gen members are being prioritize as of late. while Old Gen members are slowly being set aside by the management. Mocchi, Akicha, Umechan, Wasamin, Kobayashi Kana, Matsui Sakiko, Fujie Reina, Myao and Rie it's sad that these members look promising also. that's why I think new gen members are really lucky to have been part of AKB at the time of 2nd Chapter.
Kojiharu and Yuko are next. Takamina is so important she is still needed.
But what's important is what they want, not what i wish for. And both Kojiharu and Yuko have no goal or challenge left in AKB. They have accomplished everything and have become full idol.
Takamina is (from my point of view) in another state of mind. She transcend her idol state to manager state. She still is needed to follow the step of the new generation so AKB will go on without the first generation.
Takamina is still needed not as an idol, but as an awesome captain for every girls in 48 group.
Takamina has just as many non-AKB activities in her current schedule as Nyannyan, and probably more than Yuko. She has spots as a regular cast member on several shows, and I would argue nowadays she's seen as just "Takamina" on those shows rather than "Takamina of AKB". Takamina is pretty established as a personality of her own already. Of course people occasionally ask her about AKB-related stuff, but the same can be said for Acchan, Mariko, and Tomochin.
Though I have to ask - and don't be mad please - what is she actually doing as general director? Sasshi has actually produced a single for Matsumura Kaori, in comparison Takamina isn't doing any visible work as general director. Is she making decisions on KKS auditions? New stages? New singles? Maybe she has a voice on staff hiring for 48G related things?
On the other hand, if she is just there as a beacon of hard work and leadership, you can't say she is absolutely irreplaceable because the new gens have already produced girls like Yokoyama "YOU CAN" Yui.
@Under the Ribbon: Well other people probably know more than I do, but she does a lot of PR for the group, for example she just did a solo press event about the AKB charity radio show (or something) that's going to run 24hours on Christmas Eve. She's good at speaking at these kinds of things and usually mainly does the talking (often along with Yuuko) for any representation for AKB.
Of course, there are things she's done for years, going above and beyond what a normal member is expected to do, that put her in the position to get promoted to GM in the first place, like largely running rehearsals for concerts (you can see this kind of stuff during the documentaries) and giving advice to/paying attention to the condition of the other members. And yes, the beacon of hard work thing too XD But as for actual decision-making and whatever else she does behind the scenes, I don't know... it would be nice to know, though...
Anyhow, my prediction for next graduates would be Kojiharu from the senbatsu members (RH would be a perfect time too, since it's apparently in her hometown and a 100-song set is kind of epic). But before that, I am betting we will see some mid/low-tier members graduate. My bets would be on Myao and perhaps Wasamin now that she's building up her enka repertoire. Team A and K got gutted thanks to graduations, it's Team B's turn to lose some people.
And somehow I feel like we will see an unexpected graduation soon as well. Just an odd feeling I'm getting.
@Under the Ribbon
Takamina role as the leader/GM of AKB is very important. she's the main spokesperson of AKB in any event or activities. she's the members event organizer of the 48G in any concert, where they would stand on the stage, where they would make an entrance, where they would exit,she's the members consultant of the 48G members. anything the members want to consult on the management first ask Takamina. she's the song setlist creator. I know Takamina along with other members are the ones deciding on what song they will used on their concert.she's the motivator of the 48G. on any making of concerts/documentary. you can see Takamina is the one motivating the members on the group huddle and the one making the opening speech before rehearsals. she's the member's adviser. if members have any troubles or problems may it be on dancing, singing or MC's. Takamina is the one they usually ask for advice.
Sasshi had been producing idol's stuff even before Sasshi had been made general manager of HKT48. I know Sasshi has leadership skills also and as the senpai of HKT48 members. Sasshi had adapted the role as the leader of HKT members but it's just one 48G unlike Takamina who's hands are full as the sole leader of the whole 48G. being a producer and a leader is very different from each other.
2nd Gen members are slowly diminishing as years passed.
Remaining Generation members.
1st Gen : Kojiharu, Takamina, Miichan
2nd Gen: Umechan, Yuko, Sae
3rd Gen: Lovetan, Haachan, Yukirin, Mayuyu,
4th Gen: Chiichan, Reinyan, Amina, Mocchi, Shiichan
5th Gen: Sashiko, Rie, Ucchi,Chiikarina, Myao, Harukyan
6th Gen: Akicha, Nonaka Misato
7th Gen: Wasamin, Ayarin, Suuchan, Matsui Sakiko, Maeda Ami, Suzuki Mariya
8th Gen: unfortunately not even one was promoted to any AKB team.
9th Gen: Paruru, Yuihan, Minarun,Takeuchi Miyu,Nakamura Mariko, Yamaguchi Suzuran, Nagao Mariya
10th Gen and so forth looks like will stay for few years or so.
^You forgot Kobayashi Kana for 2nd gen, which sadly is something most people tend to do. Fun fact though, she actually has more senbatsu participation (3 times) than a lot of mid-gen girls who are more well-known than her.
yeah, that's my bad. I did forgot about her.but I really think it will only take some time now before Undergirls level members crack and decide to graduate. and by means of silent graduation. no hype just a simple theater grad ceremony and some might be lucky to graduate in a scheduled AKB concert.
One thing we need to remember is that most girls, especially the girls who joined prior to AKB became a massive success, only planned on having AKB as a temporary stop in their career path. The girls who joined later are different in that they are very happy to just be a part of AKB.
...Though I think that might have changed a little over the years. True, AKB is still technically just an "idol group", but its presence is so big now. Many AKB girls originally listed their career goals as fashion models... but I have to wonder, is there really much to gain from graduating AKB to work on a runway showing off fancy clothes? Maybe they felt that way a few years ago when AKB was not as big, but now? AKB provides plenty of opportunities to look gorgeous and be on magazine covers everywhere (who are we kidding, every magazine cover has an 48G girl on it nowadays). And fashion models have an age limit just like AKB, so it's not like the girls can significantly extend their career by becoming a model.
So... I dunno. If a girl changes her mind and decides to stay in AKB longer than she originally planned, I wouldn't blame her.
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