Event / Concert AKB Pennant Race [From 22 April to 31 October]

if the video does not show watch the video here

More details on (newly created) General Manager Shinobu blog : Written explanation about AKB Pennant race

Explanation of @lonehunter88 : Lonehunter Explanation

"Pennant Race" concept is shaping up as an official video has been released on AKB48 Youtube Channel. All team of AKB48 (not overseas sister group though) will compete for ranking based on team points obtained in a given period ( see title). thanks : @tkmn_world for precisions.
According to the video , 3 factors are taken into account for Pennant race:

• Theater application magnification

• Theater ver H/S sale

• Vote counts during sousenkyo

Also,

• Theater application points will take effect after shonichi onwards for all teams.

• Special stages will have a handicap(?) point system.

Team ranking table will be updated every day on the official site of pennant race (the site is currently being prepared)

 

I think this is more of a trial for the teams to bond, so that they win. I think they NEED this.

 

I've seen a lot of comments ironically implying that now is not the right time to do it since all the teams where shaken up.
On the contrary I think it's a great idea to do it post-shuffle now that all the teams are somehow balanced and more or less equal in star power.

 

I'm more curious to see how the finer technical details work - unfortunately my low-level Japanese skills hinders me from appreciating it all

Although one can fairly easily gauge what they're trying to do here on a very high-level (i.e. the more popular you (indiv.) are across all three key metrics, the more points you rack up for your team), I think it's better for me at least to gain a good working appreciation of how the math stacks up before understanding the practical, real-world implications of it all.

 

For this race, what if the member has a kennin with two groups? Like Yukirin, Sayanee and Milky. Would they do this with the two teams they're in? And is it overall team vote counts?

 

As far as my understanding goes, they add the allowable points to both teams.

 

if i understand correctly from that video.......for Sousenkyo for example, if you win 1st place, u get 3 points for your team. for 2nd place, u get 3 points as well.
sound like each team want more members to rank to gain more points...

 

I took a 2nd look at how they calculate the points from the Sousenkyo and they calculate the points based on the number of votes relatively to the votes from the 16th spots.
so its really hard to gain points from Sousenkyo. I think teams like BII, E and the new team 4 will have a huge challenge ahead of them.

my bet will be Team B to win this race !!! (Mayuki + Ikoma FTW)

 

^it will start from Position 80, ie. #80 gets 1 pt to start

 

Hi guys I have translated/interpreted the pennant race explanation on my tumblr.
http://yukirena88.tumblr.com/post/83529254225/the-akb48-group-pennant-race-akb48-group-is-polished
Please feel free to quote it just dont forget to link and credit me.
For easier viewing here,

Spoiler

The AKB48 Group Pennant Race ~AKB48 Group is polished through competition~ Translation
The Pennant Race will be held from 22 April 2014 to 31 October for the 12 Domestic AKB48 Group Teams (Team A, Team K, Team B, Team 4, Team S, Team KII, Team E, Team N, Team M, Team BII, Team H and Team KIV) based on

①AKB48 Group Theater (Stage) Performance Paid Membership Application Rate

②AKB48 Theater Edition (Single) Handshake Sales

③AKB48 Single Senbatsu General Election Votes

The raw numbers from these 3 factors will be converted to points and added to each team, according to the following mathematical formulas.

①AKB48 Group Theater (Stage) Performance Paid Membership Application Rate

a. The stage performances which will be counted are all performances after each team’s first performance, except special performances such as “Female only audience performance”

b. Every stage performance held will earn the team 2 points.

c. For each stage performance, if the application rate by paid membership (Mobile membership, Nihonbashira no kai/AKB48 Fanclub) exceeds a “base application rate”, 5 points will be added to the team’s score.

The “base application rate” will be calculated using a statistical regression model as described below.

Let the application rate = y, and each member’s theater appearance situation = xk. Define xk as

Then, define application rate, y as


By solving this regression model with theater performance data from the previous year, the ak(k=0,1,… ,n which represents specific members) can be estimated for each member. Using each members’ data, the “base application rate” of future theater performances will be calculated from this regression model.

Also, for birthday stages and weekend stages, appropriate weights will be assigned to the base application rate.

②AKB48 Theater Edition (Single) Handshake Sales

a. The handshake sales which will be taken into account are the AKB48 Theater Edition (Single Handshakes after 22 April.

b. The points will be added according to the following formula for each member.

Considering the maximum allowable handshake sales of a member to be 100%,

95% ~below 100%: 1.00 90%~below 95%: 0.95

85%~below 90%: 0.90 80%~below 85%: 0.85

75%~below 80%: 0.80 70%~below 75%: 0.75

65%~below 70%: 0.70 60%~below 65%: 0.65

55%~below 60%: 0.60 50%~below 55%: 0.55

45%~below 50%: 0.50 40%~below 45%: 0.45

35%~below 40%: 0.40 30%~below 35%: 0.35

25%~below 30%: 0.30 20%~below 25%: 0.25

15%~below 20%: 0.20 10%~below 15%: 0.15

5%~below 10%: 0.10 0%~below 5%: 0.05

Points for each members will be added to their respective teams (members with concurrent positions will have their points added to all teams which they are assigned to)

c. For the following date of the theater edition handshakes, the same formulas apply, in addition to multiplying this base point with the rate of increase of sales for each individual member.

For example, if a member sells 100 tickets in the previous handshake event date, and 150 tickets(out of her maximum of 187 tickets) in the following handshake event date, her point will be


d. For members who have sold out their tickets in both the previous handshake event date and the following handshake event date, her point from the previous handshake event date will be multiplied by a factor of 1.1. For example, the first time a member sells out her handshake tickets, her point will be 1.0. If she sells out on the next handshake date as well, her point will be 1.1 (1.1 X 1.0), and if she sells out again for the following handshake date, her point will be 1.21 (1.1 X 1.1) and so on.

③AKB48 Single Senbatsu General Election Votes

a. “AKB48 37th Single Senbatsu General Election” which will be held on 7 June 2014 will be the one accounted for.

b. The calculation of points will follow the D’Hondt method (highest averages method) using the raw data of number of votes for each individual member.

(I) Every members’ number of votes will be divided by 1,2,3…n

(ii) 1 Point will be added to each member starting from the member with the most votes, and when the threshold of number of votes divided by 2 is reached by another member, 1 more point is added to the member, and this rule follows for the threshold of number of votes divided by 3 and so on, until the member ranked 80 is given 1 point.

The following table shows the calculation flow using the 2013 General Election Results as an example.

Example: 2013 General Election Result



From this table, we can see that in the first quotient, all members receive a point, and when we reach Rena’s number of votes which is less than (pass the threshold) Sashihara’s number of votes divided by 2, another point is added to Sashihara. Furthermore, when we reach Watanabe Miyuki’s number of votes which is less than Sashihara’s number of votes divided by 3, another point is added to Sashihara, giving her a total of 3 points here, and so on.

c. The points of individual members from the general election results will be added to their respective teams, where members with concurrent teams will have their points added to all of the teams to which they are assigned to.

 

^wow, thanks. I'll have to visit this again later

 

" The points of individual members from the general election results will be added to their respective teams, where members with concurrent teams will have their points added to all of the teams to which they are assigned to." @lonehunter88 's blog ~

 

Thanks for the hard work @lonehunter88 !
I really suck at maths so I'm kinda lost in all the details but I think I get the general idea, thanks again for taking time to translate and explain !

Team K must be glad to have Jurina and Sayanee as kennin members.

 

In other words, lots of free points for the AKB48 teams unless I misunderstood.

 

@tokidoki Basically every member with a concurrency, for example Yukirin has a concurrency with NMB's Team N~ Free points for Team N~ She is a popular member after all~ And yeah~ There's Yukirin, Mayu and Maachun in B, Sayanee and Jurina in K and Takamina, Kojiharu and Paruru in A~ Basically the popular members in AKB are evened out~ 2 of which have kennin with NMB (Team N specifically- Yukirin and Sayanee) so free points for Team N~

 

Yes but AKB got the sister group aces while the sister groups in most cases didn't (exceptions being Yukirin and Milky).

 

Kawaei Rina's head would explode if she had to sit through that presentation!

Spoiler

if the video does not show watch the video here

 

So the purpose of the pennant race is to determine the picking order for the next draft event, right ? Meaning the winning team gets to pick whoever they want first, the runner-up picks second, and so on.

 

@tokidoki Well what about Sasshi? @Deyan I'm not too sure~