Event / Concert AKB48 45th Single Senbatsu Sousenkyo (16/6/18)

well sorry anything can be happen in SSK .. remember back then in 2013, nobody could surpassed the big 3 which contains Yuko, Mayuyu and Yukirin .... in fact in 2013, many believed that Mayuyu would take the throne from Yuuko after massive promotion she got as ACE of AKB48Group after Acchan graduate.

But then .. WHOOOPS ... Sasshi who demoted to HKt48 after scandal .. rose up as champion overcome the new ACE Mayuyu, the Powerhouse Yuuko and The Gatekeeper of Big Three .. with such a whoopping votes over than 80K compare sasshi's votes in SSK 2012 ... Sasshi's votes increase almost twice bigger than her votes in 2012 SSK ...

so yeah ... anything could happen in this year SSK ...

 

^I agree. I dont think Mayuki are necessarily a lock for the top three either.

 

I agree too that anything can happen, but I don't think anyone out of the top 3 has enough voting power to double it's amount of votes this time and pull out the same exploit Sasshi did.
I even wonder if the sales / total of votes will still increase.

 

Actually I think the kami 7 is more predictable than unpredictable.... Anything can happen, yes, but I think is more likely that don't and everything stays pretty much the same ahahahhaah
As I see right now, the really predictable kami 7 is split in 2 parts.
The top 3, which i think is fara head from the others: Sashi, Mayu, Yuki... With Sashi having a type of lead. But Mayu being really strong as always and Yuki also.

Then you have Jurina, which i dont think will have a massive increase of votes (Rena already didnt participate last year and also, i think her fanbase didnt increase much or changed)
Sayaka, well, she might have a good increase of votes... I think the gap between her votes and Jurina will devrease for sure. I wonr be surprise if she gets 4th position.
And Sakura, which i do think will have the biggest increase in votes maybe of the election....

The other spot is pretty much open, but also, probably it is between 2 or 3 girls.

 

I think Sayanee will outrank Jurina, not sure about Sakura though

 

I think Jurina's position is more in danger this year than any previous ones.

as seen last year, she didn't gain a lot of vote from Rena's fans (Rena more or less brought her fans with her), despite a strong connection between the 2. The same may happen again with Sae's fans. Not only are they loyals but there wasn't an as strong bond between Sae and Jurina as there was between WMatsuis. SoI don't think she will gain a strong amount of votes.
And as allready pointed, one of her biggest weakness is going to be the other SKE girls who may take away lot of votes from her.
All in all, I don't think her fanbase will be strong enough to propel her into the top 3.
Sayanee is also a threat that should not be ignored, she might benefit a lot from all that 365nichi promotion.

 

Regarding Jurina and freed up votes this election, I think they're most likely to come from Oya Masana's fans. She's a member that Jurina has been truly close to ever since the very beginning.

Generally speaking though, there are A LOT of freed up votes this election. It'll be very interesting to see where they all go, if they go to anyone at all. This is the biggest reason why I'm looking forward to this election. Much more so than whatever they have planned for Nyan Nyan Kamen. I think we could really be in for a wild ride.

 

I'm noticing in this thread and in the Prediction Thread a lot of people have been saying that Yukirin won't be able to get 1st because of her gap in votes with Sasshi. But many of the same people say Sayanee and/or Jurina will outrank Mayuyu. There was a 60K+ vote gap between Mayuyu and those two, so what makes Sayanee or Jurina more inclined to increase in vote count than Yukirin?

In my honest opinion, the top three are all contenders for first, Jurina, Sakura and Sayanee will have a close battle for 4th, and then there is one spot remaining for Kami7. It's safe to say that Yuihan/KitaRie/Paru will grab this spot, but for me, Yuihan is the safest bet. With Paruru, her fans might go all out in an attempt to prevent last year's results, or maybe she actually is decreasing in popularity and her rank won't change.

 

I just wanna throw it out there that I'm still selling Votes for Senkyo so if you want to support your girls come grab some before the deadline!

 

While there was a certain connection between Jurina and Rena, the fans of those 2 were usually trying to one up the other so it is not that surprising that most of Rena's fans didn't vote for Jurina, also Sae has had bonds with many members in AKB and SKE so it unfair to expect her fans to shift their votes to one particular member, so they will probably just go to whoever Sae Oshi's niOshi's are. Anyway i think the reasons that most see a change in the top 3 bracket is not because the ones below are getting stronger, but think some of their biggest providers maybe changing interest.

 

I always wonder this as well.

26866 votes vs. 60500 votes. That is more than double.

And people claim the difference between #1 and #2 last year was insurmountably large, a blow out. No. Not when you are talking 150K+ votes.

 

@hjr1891 well winning by 26,866 votes is a freaking landslide victory in my book

back in 17th single sousenkyo, the gap between Yuko and Acchan is 597 votes...that's a narrow margin of victory in SSK (1st rank vs 2nd rank)

 

I totally agree with this. I think for jurina and rena fans, the other is her/their main rival so I doubt if many people will have them as their 1-2 unless you're a pure ske fan. Same thing with milky and sayanee so expect milky votes to go elsewhere.

For predictions, I think sakura will be 5th even if management has to cheat or buy votes themselves. 6th is expected and that's not enough to create some sort of hype to keep the elections somewhat meaningful and even if only slightly unpredictable. Predictability within the top 7-8 ranks leads to a somewhat boring result. And I guess sakura has always exceeded her predicted and most likely result.

 

If Sayanee places 6th again I will eat her photobook
quote me on this

 

Quoted, I'll be expecting video.

Realistically though, I think she's ganna be 5th, 4th will still be Jurina.

 

I think Mayuyu will make the top 7, but I think she may drop out of the top 3. I can see someone like Sakura making top 3, Sasshi gaining 1st again.

The election sort of lost its luster on me with all the graduations and absentees. I'm going to try to not be that caught up in emotions over it.

 

I can definitely imagine Sakura overtaking Jurina and Mayu. Yukirin and Sayanee will stay where they were, just bumped out by Jurina/Mayu falling lower and Sakura ranking higher.

 

I do believe Sakura will overtake Jurina, not sure about Mayu though - her fans are crazy in China

 

Unlike most people here,

I think Yukirin and Mayuyu will drop. They haven't had any "momentum" in the past year, really. I'd be really surprised if they stayed in top 3, even more, if one of them managed to overtake Sasshi.

I still see Sasshi staying at no. 1. Sakura will rise, no doubt. I think Sayanee will be in the top 3. I'm only predicting Kami 7, the rest in pretty much unpredictable to me. Anything can happen esp with so many spots up for grab.

1. Sasshi
2/3/4 Sakura/Sayanne/Yukirin
5 Mayuyu
6 Jurina
7 Paruru or Yui (I'm more inclined towards yui)

 

I dont really see Yui rising in votes tho, she already got the GM boost last year. Same for Rie