Graduation announcements thread

Asking the important questions here

 

Well, I think it can be argued that there are members in 48G family who fit in your last description. At least relative to others Anyways...

I wasn't arguing about the proportion of senbatsu and not-so-worthy members promotion as an individual, I was arguing that there is not really any substantial group-based promotional cycle unless you're in the single senbatsu. Shows and such are great to showcase individual talents and for people to find or enjoy their oshimen's shenanigans. What made AKB48 special, at least to me in the beginning, was their group identity and narrative. That's why people are so clamored with early generations, they had that something extra that they're attached to. Newer HQ members don't really have it right now.

That's part of my point, Yuihan and, to a lesser extent, Paruru were lone wolves. We have these members who for one reason or another gets to put on that path and I'm perfectly fine with it. I am lamenting the fact that they don't really have a good narrative for the new gens to immerse themselves in. Some in 9-12th generations got that with the original team 4, which was great and their song getting #1 in request hour was a wonderful thing the fans did. Then all the shuffles happened and teams became somewhat unimportant, and I thought this was terrible at such an important juncture. Unfortunately for many of the members, teams are the one opportunity to create their own group identity left (see Oshima K dissolution), as their singles and stages don't even belong to them and senbatsu is not something most of them can realistically aspire to (to the point they put so much stock in SSK and becoming devastated when they "don't make it"). As an example, even now Tomu has such a huge attachment to Show Fight! that I can't imagine how other members feel having barely anything they can stake as their own in the group.

I've seen people say things that can be summed as "well, be good!", which in the end may be what ends up mattering. But why bother having groups and teams at all, then? The introduction of popular kennin members also muddled the thing, it's kind of sending the message that groups / teams are mostly platforms for individual successes of these members instead of as an entertainment force by itself driven by their camaraderie. It is really sad seeing some of the members who just recently graduated and us (and them too, probably) being left wondering what they could have contributed to an original stage!

Nothing against kennin members themselves.

You can see how the members actually try to create their own narrative with their generation mates and their relationships with each other (12th, many of 15th, and to some extent 13th, seem to be close with each other). Some feel genuine, some feel like they're trying too hard at it, but they're trying It would be awesome if the teams framework is made more powerful in the promotion machine of the group, which I have high hopes of with the coming of new stages (come ooon...).

 

@M4YUYU OH I think I finally see your point. Totally agreed then - Yui and Paruru (as well as Ricchan) were really helped by the OriTeam4 push, since that REALLY boosted their image. Everyone in gens 1-7 were essentially part of the image of the "original AKB", with gens 4 through 7 basically replacing members who left before AKB's big break.

So in that sense, I absolutely agree then. Gens 13 through 15 don't have anything (9 through 12 were part of that "original Team 4") so it would be nice to see something for them. For now, it seems to be limited to certain members (like Tentomuchu and Dendenmuchu) but it would be good to see more.

 

@piyochama Yes, and I think it's a huge factor why people who followed the group later and are more attached to the newer members are upset with how dragged out things feel these past few years. How can they make a good picture together if there is no canvas to paint on? The exclusion of team songs in some of the singles really irked me too LOL The concept of oshimen really does push individualistic tendencies, but the group as a whole, I think, will benefit greatly if management can market their collective story well.

I'm actually pretty upset that Karen is likely going to leave before the new stages. But I hope she will be successful in whatever she decides to do

 

I thought that gens 13 and 14 had a lot of hype surrounding them in the original Minegishi 4 days? (2013)
Of course, with their being redistributed to the other teams in 2014 shuffle and the 3 musketeers separating, the dynamic was lost and of course the novelty/freshness was lost. Now unfortunately a lot of those members really lost a lot of momentum. Well, this is my understanding at least, I wasn't following the group closely until early 2014 so cmiiw ^^

It seems to me, and I've seen it been stated by other people before, that those two incarnations of Team 4 were basically treated like "kenkyuusei Teams" :/ There wasn't really the space to promote them onto the main teams and they can charge more for Team shows as opposed to kks shows, so largely it was like a business decision, and when it didn't work out it's like mgm didn't care. As @M4YUYU pointed out, there were some criticisms of Ori 4 that they "did things in a relaxed way" (this was Miichan who said that after hashire penguin won RH) and so on, which presumably played a part in the disbandment. Of course, not to discount that they were absolutely beloved by the fans; that goes without saying for a team that was really the darlings of the fandom at the time when AKB was at the peak of their popularity.

Anyway, a couple people commented that they only push a few people from every gen, but I thought this was normal? That every gen has a few "chosen ones" that fit whatever mold that mgm is looking for, while everyone else is left to fight it out like piranhas

 

@M4YUYU @trxsh I definitely agree that Team 4 has that "KKS" or "fresh" feeling, and that's certainly been passed down to Team 8 now. It's true that now Team 4 feels a bit like just gen 13 onward. And yes, they only pick out the ones that basically break out from a pack to push - all the others are sort of relegated to the side.

That being said, while it's true that the overarching story is important, it's also important to not discount the individual ability to attract fans as well. If you read any "your [xxx]48/46 experiences" post, you'll see there's a vast difference between a kamitaiyou and a regular girl. I can get the irritation of NG fans, but the creation of not just one but two team 4's, plus all the other ways they've pushed girls... definitely shows a HUGE difference in the marketing and pushing of all girls post 9th gen and before that. So given all of this, the failure of the new girls to pick up more fans is more a condemnation of them and their luck than anything else.

 

In my opinion, the problem with pushing new gens is not that they only push one or two members, but it's pushing new gens into senbatsu for a while and then drop them out before they're even established members (e.g. Mako) (and they better keep Renacchi in senbatsu regardless of her HS & SSK result no matter what or else Renacchi will be Mako all over again). They should stick with a plan and not just bail on a girl just like that and back away and replace the girl. Even though the other NGs literally gets nothing, if they drop a girl who is pushed hard, it will give an impression to the others that if that pushed girl can't make it how could we??? Hence the NGs leaving

 

Just wait until later in the year. The true shuffle of senbatsu starts now - they always stick with a girl for a really long time before kicking her out of senbatsu if she doesn't stick (e.g., Akicha, Myao)

 

I think after Sae leaves the spot will go to Kojimako.
Miichan is probably staying in the back row until she graduates, but I think that spot goes to either Naachan or Juri.

I really doubt Haruppi will get into an AKB 16nin senbatsu. Not until Sasshi leaves at least.

But yeah, the pre-election/fall single should give us some indication of where they're going.

 

Miichan won't be in senbatsu after this one, probably. If Nana or Miion don't get this spot permanently it'll look pretty terrible.

 

44th single senbatsu is going to be a huge one, so we should wait until the 46th. They might put Sayaya as center of the 44th single because she's a.) a handshake monster and b.) a management push. You need both in order to get a good position in the senbatsu.

 

The graduations lately has had a great impact on the teams, and more are awaiting, and a normal shuffle will not help. But AKB is too big so I might see a disband of Team 4 and the members split up on the other teams, and maybe also a shuffle among them.

 

But disbanding Team 4 would make the other 3 teams way too big. I don't think at this point in time disbanding Team 4 is even an option. What they'd need to do is to promote the Kenkyuusei or begin preparations for a 16th generation, maybe. I hope it's a small and carefully selected one, though. No more than 10 people. A shuffle right now I think would be a disaster.

 

I doubt very much that they'll do another shuffle. The new teams just had their shonichi in December XD And team A is about to have their new original stage, they probably already have the positions in mind and start to practice it. So I doubt there will be a shuffle.

The teams have less and less members, first of all they should promote the KKS, team A has 1, team K has 2, team B has 3, and team 4 has 1. If there are more graduations, and they don't have enough members, I wouldn't mind if they use team 8 girls (like I already said before XD) for example, special stages had some team 8 members and it really helped their popularity. Besides they surely have more free time than top senbatsu members. I think they could do this. Or add more "kennins" of team 8 members. But do we know when the Toyota contract ends? Maybe if it ends, they'll do more transfers from team 8 to other teams (although I wish they could keep team 8 together and just have them as kennins/replacements in other teams).

And maybe they should have a 16th gen audition by the middle/end of the year and add 10 girls or so. I miss when AKB had KKS, and KKS stages too. They could audition for a 17th gen in 2017 with 6-7 members, and then the 16-17 girls could have KKS stages before being promoted in teams later.

 

I didn't wrote WHEN I think there will be a shuffle. With normal speed AKB have lost 10 more members at fall and then it can be.

 

I don't mind Team 8 doing Kennins for that purpose, But I really hope the Top Dogs' Kennins are mercifully killed since they don't do that much for the Teams. A 16th generation would be fine. One of the KKS's main jobs is to under for the Team Members after all. If you have KKS, you don't need big teams or shuffles, only enough girls to fill in for absent members when required. They get KKS stages and Team performances as well. It's good training and beneficial for regular stages. I think new stages will definitely stop the mighty need for shuffles every 5 minutes. But maybe we're digressing a little here.

 

Ryoha needs her kennin though. She lags behind the rest of TTMC in terms of popularity.

 

This is strange. After Kana's announce we have 11 waiting graduations in 48G, 6 without date. And so Takamina who seems to have difficult to leave. And during 2015 37 members graduate. Will there be more this year?

 

Totes. Some old members might want to move one and some new members might feel like they are stuck. I feel like if there's gonna be a year of mass graduation 48G-wide, it's this one.

 

Tbh, I think a lot of the SKE 2nd Gen members are gonna leave. I mean, 2 of the members (Riho and Airi) left last year, I think after Kyouka's graduation at the end of the month, someone like Churi or Annya are going to leave.