I read in plenty of articles and reports that Japan is a declining nation largely due to its aging and shrinking population, as well as its dormant economy. That's why I fear that its entertainment industry will also wane as a result, thus affecting its ability to produce quality pop acts such as the '48' groups and anime/manga. Do you think that Japan will continue to generate quality entertainment products, even if other sectors of its economy deteriorates ? I certainly hope that its entertainment and creative industry will stay firm despite the slowly lapsing situation. This is because I believe that Japanese pop culture is simply unique and irreplaceable, despite what some people may think otherwise.
The two main factors you base your view on (population decline and economical decline) has been going on steadily for the last 20 years (albeit slowly), so would you say AKB, which formed in 2005, is not quality entertainment? I don't think it is as bad as say "Japan will have no people left and no money to produce so that everything would be crap in the future" kind of level, because soft power is always tied to hard power. So as long Japan remains on the current status quo it should be fine...entertainment wise.
I mean in a few decades time. I pray it won't turn out that way, but I read that Japan's population will dip below 90 million by 2060, and will no longer be a rich country by 2050. The decline will likely accelerate by 2030. I hope that the entertainment industry will be resistant to the economic decline though.
I don't see how Japan can sustain their economy and entertainment industry, while hypothetically, experiencing a population decline crisis. I always wonder if a ban on hostess bars and other types of virtual girlfriend services would encourage more Japanese guys to get a non-imaginary partner (which would increase the birth-rates). That said, it would be interesting to hear from Japanese or Japanese-resident forum members about this.
I think the future will be the similar to what it is now. Japan is always a self-sustaining market with concentration of Japan Market and international second other than Kpop. Japanese people seem like the are still willing to buy CD's and I don't think that'll stop for a while in a culture that has been so much franchise oriented. In the big picture maybe Jpop had some huge acts with unique directions in music, this year maybe not so bright But it is certain that the revival of idol music and the definition of idol is solid. Personally I don't care much about sales, rankings, or what not. I buy albums and singles that like never chart lol (Ryohei's - Rat the wolf, Thelma Aoyama - One Way, as -and song). I guess I just buy if I like it. Maybe thats the best thing...ignoring the whole music scheme so everything seems fair. I remember my friend asked me before I even knew about Oricon...."Hey guess how much Namie Amuro's Baby Don't Cry sold!!?"....I said in breath, 500,000. He just laughed at me lol
The main thing I fear is that if the standard of living drops in decades to come, Japan's entertainment industry may inevitably follow suit. People will be too preoccupied with things such as earning a living and basic amenities, like what is happening in third world countries. This will lead to a decline in showbiz revenue. Let's hope Japan can find a way to turn things around. Maybe importing more East Asian immigrants may help. They look like Japanese, and can assimilate easily. Perhaps they can also add an extra syllable or two to their 3 word names to have a Japanese name [rock]
Maybe this will drop the price of Japanese entertainment. Even taking into account exchange rates, entertainment products cost a lot more in Japan than the Europe or America.
In the next few decades I think I'll be too frail to be able think what's in it for the Japanese Entertainment Industry. Why discuss the future when the present is already beset by such numerous problem. /killed
It's too early to guess if the industry could decline, but with the rising number of elderly, it would be expected that this industry will have to adjust itself to the needs of the aged, anywhere from music to film-making, and even red-light-district industries connected to erotica (including the rising popularity of realistic-looking love dolls). Furthermore, it would take a huge impact or a complete change in mass thinking to accept the need for more immigrants to offset the population decline, such as the reduction (if not elimination) of racial discrimination and accept the notion of mixed-race nationals. The rising problem of asexual mentality needs to be curbed by means of educating the young, who are being fed with misguided, fears and distorted notions (and the media is partly to blame for this) about socializing, sex, romance and married life. To become more relevant and competitive as its neighbors, the Japanese entertainment industry will also have to take English and other foreign languages very seriously as one of several means of increasing their market share overseas, to expand beyond domestic consumption. Finally, there's always the issue of copyright and digital media, and as usual the fears of piracy eating into profits have spurned the likes of RIAJ and the Diet to enact and emulate American-style copyright and IP enforcement, however unpopular to some quarters and critics.
Sorry, but I like my J-entertainment just the way it is. Even if it does become like K-pop (which obviously is geared towards heavily exporting their entertainment sector), can you really say that it is successful on an international level? Honestly I don't see Kpop generating any "buzz" outside the asiaphile (or whatever you want to call it) community. But as for fears of economic decline, it is only an economist's prediction based on the current projection, and not any more factual than your guesses or mine. Predictions are wrong all the time, and even more so with a broad based macro prediction because there are just so many factors involved that could change dramatically. Lastly, I think the entertainment industry is much like the alcohol industry. In normal times you indulge yourself when you feel like it, but in depressed downturns people actually need things to get their minds away from reality. Much like how the American government subsidized the entertainment industry during the Great Depression period, I don't see why it can't happen here. But I think the point is, there are more things to worry about than the entertainment industry if Japan's economy do take a turn for the worse come in 40 or so years. You shouldn't just selfishly ask to be entertained when the country has more serious problems on it's hands.
That's why i fear for Japan's entertainment industry, which IMO is unique from other countries. It seems to be very hard to emulate the likes of Japanese showbiz despite the efforts of similar countries such as South Korea, and I doubt China's showbiz will follow suit.
All right, the thing is, it's NOT going to die yet, it still has an identity; you'll have to wait for a thousand or so years for that kind of cultural "extinction" to happen.
