Single AKB48 58th (Ne mo Ha mo Rumor) [2021/09/29)

Discussion in 'AKB48 News & Releases' started by Kuura, May 23, 2021.

  1. kira7x

    kira7x Kenkyuusei

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    I was gonna write a long post but Mana and Reveen said pretty much everything i wanted to say. Personally i consider the promotion of this single very good and they did everything they could, it's just a case of too little too late.
    I'd just add that i think Reveen was to kind, let's be honest, 16th, D3 and the last Team 8 batch completely bombed. The question is, who should be blamed? The girls or management?
    Honestly, if you let girls like Suzuki Yuka and Shiobara join your group then you can't complain they are not making the group more popular.
     
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  2. donjonnie

    donjonnie Next Girls

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    Regarding the sales comparison, how much has the pandemic affect Sakamichi group sales?

    Also the full Tiktok stream:

    if the video does not show watch the video here

    so that's why we never had full version dance, even on MV.
    It didn't exist. Guess the covid incident pushed things back.

    The 2nd half is great, many new moves, I can't stop looping it for a while haha
     
  3. nokoru

    nokoru Upcoming Girls

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    Nogizaka46 sold 400k on the first day.
     
  4. donjonnie

    donjonnie Next Girls

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    how is that compared to their previous and pre-covid sales? Sorry for the trouble, I'm not following sakamichi sales recently.
     
  5. plomeplome

    plomeplome Upcoming Girls

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    50% decline from 1m to 500k. It should be noted that most of the top members dont do individual handshakes offline or online
     
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  6. Trinu

    Trinu Under Girls

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    Not many things impact the sales nowadays. The number of members in senbatsu, the center, etc... they rarely influence anything. The sales are almost wota-driven, hence why they've been stable for years.

    Still, one does wonder why they went all out in the production of singles like Kibouteki Refrain (11 songs, 6 PVs) when they were churning out 4 or 5 releases a year, and now that they come back after a year and a half... they give us crumbs? Wasn't this the moment to come with a bazillion new things? They announced the single back in May and then spent all these months focused on one song and dance only? Sorry, no.

    Also, can AkiP and Company stop using trumpets/sax/brass section in the songs already? I swear to god there are more sounds in Garage Band!
     
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  7. lionel90

    lionel90 Under Girls

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  8. souchan48

    souchan48 Future Girls

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    the defeat is for their own good*


    *provided management learnt from this and slap themselves out of their 'comfort zone'.

    For years (i bet for at least five years), AKB has been in coma state. Worse is that, the management ignore the fact because they still have their pseudo-relevance and pseudo-sucess. They still sell even without any effort. In fact, they only increase their HS slots to cover up. They are never in the 'lows'. Almost, but they have their pseudo-success and it prevents them from making an effort.

    A real kick on the management's butt (this time) can do good and it can also set up some plot and theme for the group, moving ahead.

    Also, it's time for us to realize that management putting an effort to something is a huge steps from their complacency... but it's not enough. the idol scene has been oversaturated. most idols (if not their management) put efforts. so what differrentiates? effort should be common sense, and the management needs to realize even this is not enough
     
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  9. Trinu

    Trinu Under Girls

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  10. ossan

    ossan Member

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  11. lionel90

    lionel90 Under Girls

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    CBC radio Chuumori cover

    if the video does not show watch the video here
     
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  12. Rurouni

    Rurouni Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

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    This is probably not correct. Instead of the actual girls, it is more of a brand thing. 46 brand is more likeable right now while 48 brand is not as cool as it used to be due to various reasons. As far as online talk goes, from the reports that I've read, 48G might actually be better (have more interesting member to talk to) if you just want to talk to the girls.

    Nogi sales 1st day
    28th 408k (around 535k first week)
    27th 450k (589k 1st week, 693k total)
    26th 445k (589k 1st week 716k total)
    -----------
    25th 810k (995k 1st week, 1.12m total)

    AKB
    58th 320k
    -----------
    57th 1.15m (1.16m first week, 1.19m total)
    56th 1.33m (1.38m first week, 1.41m total)

    So the drop wasn't that bad and actually realistic. Having said that, one need to consider that 46G have better legs. Their 1st week number is going to be much better than their 1st day number.

    Why it didn't do as good as some of the older single even if they had a similar amount of member that were available for handshake? Probably, 1st, it was a handshake. From my calculation, if this is a pre-covid AKB only single, they will sell around 500k to 600k first day (Which is actually great for AKB only single. The number is from the percentage of how much sold out AKB vs SG, in most cases, this is between 40 to 50%). Of course it is unfair to compare it to back then because it seems that AKB (chara-ani) is more efficient now in shipping for the 1st day number. Back then, AKB sales have a relatively good legs, meaning that they were selling in 5 digit number for more than a week while in recent singles, the numbers drop dramatically. Basically AKB numbers back then were like 46G numbers.
    Another factor to consider when comparing sales back then vs now is that Oricon changed how they count the sales, so potentially more under reporting for current single vs back then when AKB was in the golden era. But overall, for me, 320k is an okay number. It is basically as expected if you remove SG and the effect of lower sales from online talk. What I'm hoping would happen was that because this is the first single since more than a year and also being their first AKB only single since many years, it would boost the sales to at least closer to 400k first day (using Oricon number).

    If all online talk were sold + Limista, the max would be around 610k (assuming 210 online tix/slot with 2s buffer) to 693k (240tix/slot, basically a bit unrealistic since it doesn't have any buffer -> 1 hour / 15 seconds). Of course this is not counting the regular/limited ed and theater ed without online talk.
    For 57th single, the max amount from HS preorder is 2m (with 2s buffer) and 2.4m (without buffer). It sold 1.15k (Oricon).

    I do have my take on AKB vs Nogi numbers, why Nogi is higher, how it stacks with AKB golden era, but that probably is going to be for a different post.

    edit: other Sakamichi's sales

    Sakurazaka
    2nd 300k (373k, 426k)
    1st 307k (408k, 498k)
    -------
    Keya
    8th 545k (750k, 934k)
    7th 602k (811k, 1m)

    Hina
    5th 384k (486k, 551k)
    --------
    4th 439k (558k, 649k)
     
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2021
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  13. Iz*One48

    Iz*One48 Kenkyuusei

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    Not denying that management must do something but is everyone had realized that AKB48 actually is so old which that factor becoming the major obstacles for them? They debuted ages ago. Not only they had lost the original members, they also had lost the members which used to be the next generation and lost the members which used to be the next generation after the next generation. Even the current front members like Yuiyui had become AKB48 members for 7 years and Zukky for 5 years already.
     
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  14. Konno A.

    Konno A. Future Girls

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    maybe management really thought the dance would be like a trend or viral moment for AKB...which is something a lot of groups crave for to get attention these days. It's not like AKB has a Hashimoto Kanna on their team.
     
  15. welp

    welp Next Girls

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    Then, you can always look up Billboard Japan's number, which is 40x,xxx something. Not that big of different. And, hasn't Oricon's new system been in place for some years now?

    Old brand may rebrand to extend its life. But, DH has chosen to die not trying.

    DH hired a noob choreographer wishing he could make viral dance? DH could not be that stupid, right? If they were serious about viral dance, they should have hired someone who has made viral dance such as, Kiel Tutin (NiziU's Make You Happy) or Lia Kim (Twice's TT).
     
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  16. Iz*One48

    Iz*One48 Kenkyuusei

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    We must recognize that it is old brand before trying to rebrand because that is the major obstacles. By understanding this we can understand that AKB48 will need extra work and similar effort will have lower outcome in compare with younger, fresher group.

    Even rebrand can have two connotations. First referring to rebranding of not so popular brand. Second referring to rebranding of used to be popular brand. Some might see AKB48 as the former although AKB48 is the later.
     
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2021
  17. nad148

    nad148 Kenkyuusei

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    i think the sales are quite good for their current situation and condition.

    i agree with the one that said it's about branding. the 46 group has a better branding right now thus being more popular than 48 group now.

    48 group needs a new strategy to make their brand popular and on demand again.. because i think right now the one following 48 group is their long time fans, they need to pull the general public and gaining new fans as well..

    looking at the result now i'm quite satisfied, i think this kinda result is also needed for the management to "wake up" somehow, get out of their comfort zone, and change their strategy. I just hope the girls doesn't get affected by the sales so much, especially naachan the center, it's definitely not her or the girls fault
     
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  18. Rurouni

    Rurouni Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

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    When I say back then, what I meant is if you try to find where this 58th single stacks up, it is slotting between Sakura no Shiori (15th single, 229k 1st day) and Ponytail to Shushu (16th, 354k). But you can't really compare it to 58th single 320k because the counting changed from that era to the current single. I believe Oricon change it around 2016 and may had another change afterwards.

    As far as rebrand goes (I'm assuming keeping the AKB48 name but going after different market or something), there is a bit of problem in doing that. From what I see, with the existence of 46G, it ended up limiting what AKB can do. The cute stuff is for Hinatazaka, the classy stuff for Nogi, and the emo one for Keya (and Sakurazaka still experimenting). This might play in Aki-P's head when deciding what should be given to AKB. But anyway, it terms of making viral dance, it isn't that easy. Even with someone known to create one, it doesn't mean he/she can create another one with similar success. And something like Koichun ended up being viral. It would be really nice if AKB had something viral that can kick start the current AKB, but unfortunately, it is not something that easy to produce.
     
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  19. STS

    STS Future Girls

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    Do you know what is the worst thing? AKB48 dropped significantly in sales, lost the race with Sakamichi, humiliated, defeated. But no one noticed this... No hate, no haters, no ridicule, no bullying. People have forgotten about them...
    I prefer to see on girlschannel topics about how AKB is Owakon and why all girls in 48G are ugly, not the silence!
     
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  20. lionel90

    lionel90 Under Girls

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    YuuNaMogiOn version at 19h00 JST

    if the video does not show watch the video here

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    And yet, everyone including the pro dancers are agreeing it is a difficult choregraphy. Not bad for an debuting choregrapher isn't it ?

    Who ever said the idea was to create a viral dance ? when it is clear that the real goal is to show that the girls can go out of their comfort zone.
    A choreo is also a part of a song identity. Then, just by watching a few second without sound, you can say "hey it is xxxx song"

    AKB48 produced 2 viral concept and people complained it was too easy. Now they do a hell of a dance and people complain it is not viral ? go figure .....
    You wanted a duck dance ?
    I bet if they do a samba dance, there will be some "oh no it is not a waltz", if they do a waltz there will be some "oh no it is not a march" .... and so on.
    The efforts are here right under their eyes, and pople still argue that AKB48 is lazy
    So pople like to complain for complaining.

    Most forum users here knew this was coming, it's been said many times that AKB48 alone would sale around 300k on 1st day and it's what happened. Not even need to try to use the desactivated search function, just go back the 1st page.
    Let's not pretend being surprised.

    EDIT:
    And for your information, the said "Noob" teaches in a nationaly ranked dancing school, not a random act lost in a far deep valley.
    Because you know nothing about him doesn't make an incompetent.
    Respect !
     
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2021
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