Single AKB48 58th (Ne mo Ha mo Rumor) [2021/09/29)

Discussion in 'AKB48 News & Releases' started by Kuura, May 23, 2021.

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  1. Trinu

    Trinu Under Girls

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    Not many things impact the sales nowadays. The number of members in senbatsu, the center, etc... they rarely influence anything. The sales are almost wota-driven, hence why they've been stable for years.

    Still, one does wonder why they went all out in the production of singles like Kibouteki Refrain (11 songs, 6 PVs) when they were churning out 4 or 5 releases a year, and now that they come back after a year and a half... they give us crumbs? Wasn't this the moment to come with a bazillion new things? They announced the single back in May and then spent all these months focused on one song and dance only? Sorry, no.

    Also, can AkiP and Company stop using trumpets/sax/brass section in the songs already? I swear to god there are more sounds in Garage Band!
     
    Trinu, Sep 30, 2021
    #841
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  2. lionel90

    lionel90 Under Girls

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    lionel90, Sep 30, 2021
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  3. souchan48

    souchan48 Future Girls

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    the defeat is for their own good*


    *provided management learnt from this and slap themselves out of their 'comfort zone'.

    For years (i bet for at least five years), AKB has been in coma state. Worse is that, the management ignore the fact because they still have their pseudo-relevance and pseudo-sucess. They still sell even without any effort. In fact, they only increase their HS slots to cover up. They are never in the 'lows'. Almost, but they have their pseudo-success and it prevents them from making an effort.

    A real kick on the management's butt (this time) can do good and it can also set up some plot and theme for the group, moving ahead.

    Also, it's time for us to realize that management putting an effort to something is a huge steps from their complacency... but it's not enough. the idol scene has been oversaturated. most idols (if not their management) put efforts. so what differrentiates? effort should be common sense, and the management needs to realize even this is not enough
     
    souchan48, Sep 30, 2021
    #843
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  4. Trinu

    Trinu Under Girls

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    Trinu, Sep 30, 2021
    #844
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  5. ossan

    ossan Member

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    ossan, Sep 30, 2021
    #845
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  6. lionel90

    lionel90 Under Girls

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    CBC radio Chuumori cover

    if the video does not show watch the video here
     
    lionel90, Oct 1, 2021
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  7. Rurouni

    Rurouni Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

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    This is probably not correct. Instead of the actual girls, it is more of a brand thing. 46 brand is more likeable right now while 48 brand is not as cool as it used to be due to various reasons. As far as online talk goes, from the reports that I've read, 48G might actually be better (have more interesting member to talk to) if you just want to talk to the girls.

    Nogi sales 1st day
    28th 408k (around 535k first week)
    27th 450k (589k 1st week, 693k total)
    26th 445k (589k 1st week 716k total)
    -----------
    25th 810k (995k 1st week, 1.12m total)

    AKB
    58th 320k
    -----------
    57th 1.15m (1.16m first week, 1.19m total)
    56th 1.33m (1.38m first week, 1.41m total)

    So the drop wasn't that bad and actually realistic. Having said that, one need to consider that 46G have better legs. Their 1st week number is going to be much better than their 1st day number.

    Why it didn't do as good as some of the older single even if they had a similar amount of member that were available for handshake? Probably, 1st, it was a handshake. From my calculation, if this is a pre-covid AKB only single, they will sell around 500k to 600k first day (Which is actually great for AKB only single. The number is from the percentage of how much sold out AKB vs SG, in most cases, this is between 40 to 50%). Of course it is unfair to compare it to back then because it seems that AKB (chara-ani) is more efficient now in shipping for the 1st day number. Back then, AKB sales have a relatively good legs, meaning that they were selling in 5 digit number for more than a week while in recent singles, the numbers drop dramatically. Basically AKB numbers back then were like 46G numbers.
    Another factor to consider when comparing sales back then vs now is that Oricon changed how they count the sales, so potentially more under reporting for current single vs back then when AKB was in the golden era. But overall, for me, 320k is an okay number. It is basically as expected if you remove SG and the effect of lower sales from online talk. What I'm hoping would happen was that because this is the first single since more than a year and also being their first AKB only single since many years, it would boost the sales to at least closer to 400k first day (using Oricon number).

    If all online talk were sold + Limista, the max would be around 610k (assuming 210 online tix/slot with 2s buffer) to 693k (240tix/slot, basically a bit unrealistic since it doesn't have any buffer -> 1 hour / 15 seconds). Of course this is not counting the regular/limited ed and theater ed without online talk.
    For 57th single, the max amount from HS preorder is 2m (with 2s buffer) and 2.4m (without buffer). It sold 1.15k (Oricon).

    I do have my take on AKB vs Nogi numbers, why Nogi is higher, how it stacks with AKB golden era, but that probably is going to be for a different post.

    edit: other Sakamichi's sales

    Sakurazaka
    2nd 300k (373k, 426k)
    1st 307k (408k, 498k)
    -------
    Keya
    8th 545k (750k, 934k)
    7th 602k (811k, 1m)

    Hina
    5th 384k (486k, 551k)
    --------
    4th 439k (558k, 649k)
     
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2021
    Rurouni, Oct 1, 2021
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  8. Iz*One48

    Iz*One48 Kenkyuusei

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    Not denying that management must do something but is everyone had realized that AKB48 actually is so old which that factor becoming the major obstacles for them? They debuted ages ago. Not only they had lost the original members, they also had lost the members which used to be the next generation and lost the members which used to be the next generation after the next generation. Even the current front members like Yuiyui had become AKB48 members for 7 years and Zukky for 5 years already.
     
    Iz*One48, Oct 1, 2021
    #848
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  9. Konno A.

    Konno A. Future Girls

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    maybe management really thought the dance would be like a trend or viral moment for AKB...which is something a lot of groups crave for to get attention these days. It's not like AKB has a Hashimoto Kanna on their team.
     
    Konno A., Oct 1, 2021
    #849
  10. welp

    welp Next Girls

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    Then, you can always look up Billboard Japan's number, which is 40x,xxx something. Not that big of different. And, hasn't Oricon's new system been in place for some years now?

    Old brand may rebrand to extend its life. But, DH has chosen to die not trying.

    DH hired a noob choreographer wishing he could make viral dance? DH could not be that stupid, right? If they were serious about viral dance, they should have hired someone who has made viral dance such as, Kiel Tutin (NiziU's Make You Happy) or Lia Kim (Twice's TT).
     
    welp, Oct 1, 2021
    #850
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  11. Iz*One48

    Iz*One48 Kenkyuusei

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    We must recognize that it is old brand before trying to rebrand because that is the major obstacles. By understanding this we can understand that AKB48 will need extra work and similar effort will have lower outcome in compare with younger, fresher group.

    Even rebrand can have two connotations. First referring to rebranding of not so popular brand. Second referring to rebranding of used to be popular brand. Some might see AKB48 as the former although AKB48 is the later.
     
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2021
    Iz*One48, Oct 1, 2021
    #851
  12. nad148

    nad148 Kenkyuusei

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    i think the sales are quite good for their current situation and condition.

    i agree with the one that said it's about branding. the 46 group has a better branding right now thus being more popular than 48 group now.

    48 group needs a new strategy to make their brand popular and on demand again.. because i think right now the one following 48 group is their long time fans, they need to pull the general public and gaining new fans as well..

    looking at the result now i'm quite satisfied, i think this kinda result is also needed for the management to "wake up" somehow, get out of their comfort zone, and change their strategy. I just hope the girls doesn't get affected by the sales so much, especially naachan the center, it's definitely not her or the girls fault
     
    nad148, Oct 1, 2021
    #852
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  13. Rurouni

    Rurouni Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

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    When I say back then, what I meant is if you try to find where this 58th single stacks up, it is slotting between Sakura no Shiori (15th single, 229k 1st day) and Ponytail to Shushu (16th, 354k). But you can't really compare it to 58th single 320k because the counting changed from that era to the current single. I believe Oricon change it around 2016 and may had another change afterwards.

    As far as rebrand goes (I'm assuming keeping the AKB48 name but going after different market or something), there is a bit of problem in doing that. From what I see, with the existence of 46G, it ended up limiting what AKB can do. The cute stuff is for Hinatazaka, the classy stuff for Nogi, and the emo one for Keya (and Sakurazaka still experimenting). This might play in Aki-P's head when deciding what should be given to AKB. But anyway, it terms of making viral dance, it isn't that easy. Even with someone known to create one, it doesn't mean he/she can create another one with similar success. And something like Koichun ended up being viral. It would be really nice if AKB had something viral that can kick start the current AKB, but unfortunately, it is not something that easy to produce.
     
    Rurouni, Oct 1, 2021
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  14. STS

    STS Future Girls

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    Do you know what is the worst thing? AKB48 dropped significantly in sales, lost the race with Sakamichi, humiliated, defeated. But no one noticed this... No hate, no haters, no ridicule, no bullying. People have forgotten about them...
    I prefer to see on girlschannel topics about how AKB is Owakon and why all girls in 48G are ugly, not the silence!
     
    STS, Oct 1, 2021
    #854
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  15. lionel90

    lionel90 Under Girls

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    YuuNaMogiOn version at 19h00 JST

    if the video does not show watch the video here

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    And yet, everyone including the pro dancers are agreeing it is a difficult choregraphy. Not bad for an debuting choregrapher isn't it ?

    Who ever said the idea was to create a viral dance ? when it is clear that the real goal is to show that the girls can go out of their comfort zone.
    A choreo is also a part of a song identity. Then, just by watching a few second without sound, you can say "hey it is xxxx song"

    AKB48 produced 2 viral concept and people complained it was too easy. Now they do a hell of a dance and people complain it is not viral ? go figure .....
    You wanted a duck dance ?
    I bet if they do a samba dance, there will be some "oh no it is not a waltz", if they do a waltz there will be some "oh no it is not a march" .... and so on.
    The efforts are here right under their eyes, and pople still argue that AKB48 is lazy
    So pople like to complain for complaining.

    Most forum users here knew this was coming, it's been said many times that AKB48 alone would sale around 300k on 1st day and it's what happened. Not even need to try to use the desactivated search function, just go back the 1st page.
    Let's not pretend being surprised.

    EDIT:
    And for your information, the said "Noob" teaches in a nationaly ranked dancing school, not a random act lost in a far deep valley.
    Because you know nothing about him doesn't make an incompetent.
    Respect !
     
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2021
    lionel90, Oct 1, 2021
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  16. ootamudkip

    ootamudkip Member

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    I feel like now some steps that necessary to boost more sales for the future single are
    1. Provide method for non senbatsu member to get more exposure (looking at team K sales during the preorder era is just sad :( )
    2. Start making song with good music, tbh I think if I narrow it down there's 3 option to choose: cutesy song, cool song, or tiktok friendly song. (tiktok just because I know if you got your song to be popular in tiktok the number and public recognition will rise)
    Secretly I hope they could have whatever it is they have when they compose THE futari saison
     
    ootamudkip, Oct 1, 2021
    #856
  17. Oddball82

    Oddball82 Member

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    To compare AKB sales with Sakamichi groups is understandable but in my eyes flawed.
    AKB is an old group and has lost the generation which made AKB great. Let´s see what happens to Nogizaka when they are as old as AKB and have lost those members.

    I don´t understand, first people constantly say that AKB has to do a pure AKB single, and now AKB has done that pure AKB single suddenly they are doomed?

    400K singles sold is still a great number, no it is not a million, but when looking at it objectively, it is the million that is the weird number, not the 400k.
     
    Oddball82, Oct 1, 2021
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  18. Trinu

    Trinu Under Girls

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    My oshi's power <3
     
    Trinu, Oct 1, 2021
    #858
  19. lionel90

    lionel90 Under Girls

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    lionel90, Oct 1, 2021
    #859
  20. bonjourmarlene

    bonjourmarlene Under Girls Wiki48 Editor

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    2nd Resales 3rd Round (21st to 22nd September)
    21/60 (–17) Mukaichi Mion (12 slots removed)
    01/50 (–02) Nishikawa Rei (10 slots removed)
    02/40 (–08) Chiba Erii (8 slots removed)
    03/38 (–06) Taguchi Manaka (10 slots removed)
    01/40 (–02) Kato Rena (8 slots removed)
    01/40 (+00) Yamane Suzuha (8 slots removed)
    00/30 (+00) Shinozaki Ayana (6 slots removed)
    00/30 (+00) Suzuki Kurumi (6 slots removed)
    01/30 (+00) Furukawa Nazuna (6 slots removed)
    00/18 (–23) Yokoyama Yui (12 slots removed)
    00/10 (+00) Miyazaki Miho (1 slot removed)
    01/08 (–01) Sato Minami (4 slots removed)
    00/08 (+00) Michieda Saki (3 slots removed)
    08/08 (+00) Iriyama Anna (2nd Resales 1st Round sold out)

    05/56 (–03) Muto Tomu (12 slots removed)
    00/40 (–02) Nagatomo Ayami (8 slots removed)
    00/40 (+00) Komiyama Haruka (8 slots removed)
    00/30 (–02) Muto Orin (6 slots removed)
    00/30 (–02) Mogi Shinobu (6 slots removed)
    00/20 (+00) Kobayashi Ran (4 slots removed)
    00/20 (+00) Okada Rina (4 slots removed)
    00/20 (+00) Shimoguchi Hinana (4 slots removed)
    00/10 (+00) Yasuda Kana (2 slots removed)
    00/10 (+00) Ichikawa Manami (2 slots removed)
    00/10 (+00) Yumoto Ami (2 slots removed)
    00/10 (+00) Nagano Megumi (2 slots removed)

    10/60 (–06) Kubo Satone (12 slots removed)
    40/48 (–20) Kashiwagi Yuki (12 slots removed)
    06/48 (+00) Taniguchi Megu
    02/40 (–05) Iwatate Saho (8 slots removed)
    03/40 (–03) Omori Maho (8 slots removed)
    01/40 (–03) Fukuoka Seina (8 slots removed)
    00/40 (+00) Sasaki Yukari (8 slots removed)
    00/27 (–01) Otake Hitomi (9 slots removed)
    00/10 (+00) Takita Kayoko (2 slots removed)
    02/10 (+00) Yamabe Ayu (2 slots removed)
    01/10 (–01) Oya Shizuka (2 slots removed)
    00/10 (–01) Kitazawa Saki (2 slots removed)
    00/10 (+00) Nakanishi Chiyori (2 slots removed)
    00/10 (+00) Saito Haruna (2 slots removed)

    54/60 (–18) Okada Nana (12 slots removed)
    53/60 (–19) Murayama Yuiri (12 slots removed)
    17/54 (–21) Yamauchi Mizuki (12 slots removed)
    02/40 (–02) Inagaki Kaori (8 slots removed)
    00/40 (+00) Yoshihashi Yuzuka (8 slots removed)
    06/36 (–06) Asai Nanami (8 slots removed)
    02/30 (–02) Tada Kyoka (6 slots removed)
    00/30 (+00) Ma Chia-Ling (6 slots removed)
    00/30 (+00) Ishiwata Sena (6 slots removed)
    00/20 (+00) Omori Miyuu (4 slots removed)
    00/10 (+00) Saito Kiara (2 slots removed)
    00/10 (+00) Kurosu Haruka (2 slots removed)
    00/10 (+00) Kuramoto Miyuu (2 slots removed)
    00/00 (+00) Homma Mai

    42/60 (–30) Honda Hitomi (12 slots removed)
    14/60 (–19) Kuranoo Narumi (12 slots removed)
    48/57 (–21) Oguri Yui (12 slots removed)
    30/57 (–21) Okabe Rin (12 slots removed)
    07/40 (–08) Shitao Miu (8 slots removed)
    10/40 (–05) Oda Erina (8 slots removed)
    06/40 (–04) Sakaguchi Nagisa (8 slots removed)
    04/40 (–01) Shimizu Maria (8 slots removed)
    00/40 (+00) Nagano Serika (8 slots removed)
    10/36 (–03) Onishi Momoka
    00/36 (–02) Yokoyama Yui (8 slots removed)
    00/36 (+00) Yoshikawa Nanase (8 slots removed)
    00/30 (+00) Gyoten Yurina (6 slots removed)
    00/30 (+00) Takahashi Ayane (6 slots removed)
    00/15 (+00) Takahashi Sayaka (3 slots removed)
    00/12 (–01) Fukutome Mitsuho (6 slots removed)
    00/12 (+00) Yoshida Karen
    00/12 (+00) Hama Sayuna
    00/12 (+00) Fujizono Rei
    00/09 (–04) Hashimoto Haruna (6 slots removed)
    00/09 (+00) Hattori Yuna (6 slots removed)
    01/09 (+00) Okumoto Hinano
    00/09 (+00) Yamada Kyoka
    00/09 (+00) Harumoto Yuki
    01/09 (+00) Kawahara Misaki
    00/09 (+00) Okuhara Hinako
    00/09 (+00) Takaoka Kaoru
    00/09 (+00) Hinano Hikaru
    00/09 (+00) Uemi Sorano
    00/06 (+00) Utada Hatsuka (3 slots removed)
    00/06 (+00) Hidaritomo Ayaka (3 slots removed)
    00/00 (+00) Mitomo Mashiro
    00/00 (+00) Suzuki Yuka
    00/00 (+00) Sakagawa Hiyuka
    00/00 (+00) Tokunaga Remi

    Total: 416/2,254 (-296 since 2nd resale round 2) [18.56% of all tickets sold*]
    Team A: 39/410 [09.51%*]
    Team K: 05/296 [01.69%*]
    Team B: 65/363 [17.91%*]
    Team 4: 134/430 [31.16%*]
    Team 8: 173/755 [22.91%*]

    *The percentage of tickets sold is based solely on sold-out slots. The actual number is probably higher but inaccessible to the public.
     
    bonjourmarlene, Oct 1, 2021
    #860
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