Single AKB48 46th [High Tension] (16/11/16)

Unfortunately the next single has already been decided by the idiots in Osaka as a sayanee center. With probably the most ridiculous reasoning I've ever heard.

 

Spoiler: Muto Tomu

Interesting comment about her niche appeal. Back in March I attended a 2-shot and I met 18 girls. As I shook hands with them, thanks to my very limited Japanese I mostly just said 'arigato' and 'bye bye'. However there were 2 who I complemented on their appearance as an almost spontaneous action - one was my oshimen Mayuyu - and the other was Tomu. As I shook hands with her I just found myself saying to her (in English) "You're very pretty". So yes maybe I'd agree that she has niche appeal, but to those of us in that 'niche' the appeal is strong.

And to add a quick word about Yuria - when I first became a fan of the group 18 months ago she was the first member of the then Undergirls line-up who I can remember noticing, probably because of her big eyes, but sadly she's never become one of my favourites.

 

Oh, for sure @kyoto48☀︎☂ is right about nobody being really ready except Miru, I agree with that, but Hana isn't either. She's very much a push like the others - someone who has amazing potential to skyrocket but isn't there yet and needs these opportunities.

I wonder what would have happened had Riripon been stuck into AKB48 senbatsu as well right after Durian Shonen - maybe we'll see Hana skyrocket even farther than Riripon did. I like Hana and hope she does get a huge advantage out of this opportunity, since it really is lining all up in terms of timing, like @gocchisama said. Maybe that is the fault of SKE and NMB management, then, for not throwing Ryoha or Rara (even though she never centered anything except that AKB B-side) or Riripon or Miru into these sorts of opportunities right when they started their push within the group. It still strikes me as weird that they're not trying to make up for that now, but maybe it is just NMB/SKE digging their own graves/blundering this one by not taking every advantage of the AKB48 mothership like HKT (and to a lesser extent NGT) does.

 

Tomu is so ugly, I just can't...

I mean, look how overly edited she is...

Spoiler

https://67.media.tumblr.com/ccf6ce794c345e2b143ad4a0b483a988/tumblr_od5bfiZXN41v7y9xxo2_r1_1280.png
https://66.media.tumblr.com/093fe06db20ec9be4c99ae9f3c1dfd56/tumblr_od5bfiZXN41v7y9xxo3_r1_1280.png
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/5f/1a/de/5f1adee2b7b7b67579907f9f0730ceb0.jpg
https://i.warosu.org/data/jp/img/0151/02/1461229355121.jpg

It hurts my eyes, she really does...

Spoiler

https://67.media.tumblr.com/82d30ec96446fe54b42dd434d19877ae/tumblr_odmtjlaPg71typ8nxo1_400.gif
https://66.media.tumblr.com/e8dab430c40b699f93aaf4a06b36e7d9/tumblr_ocml54jqfl1typ8nxo2_400.gif
https://67.media.tumblr.com/a0f17d955cdfd1607a83a848ff591090/tumblr_odpdolBu6Z1typ8nxo5_400.gif

Just kidding! I don't find her ugly at all (I think she had an awkward phase before but has gotten more confident and prettier with the years, but there is a very wise saying 'beauty is in the eye of the beholder'.

Now, jokes asides...I don't think Tomu's looks are the problem here (in fact, it would be a good addition, given she is more like the 'grown up, cool type' in appearance unlike most of the girly looking girls. And it's not being biased, (I post my opinion under spoiler because I don't want to get bashed to say my opinion)

Spoiler

as my former kami was Sato Amina (who was cute for a long time, but she got messier when she gained a lot of weight/didn't paid much attention to her looks when transferred to Team K - she didn't look good on her last stage, and while she is someone very special to me, cannot overlook that hairstyle was unflattering/weight out of control).

When I follow someone, I don't have 'blind love' towards her - and if appearance was a requirement, then why Owada Nana (who is, hands down one of the prettiest girls in AKB since her debut) got dropped?

And about Hanachan's push...well, I think that depending of the results, she may or not become a regular. It might be, as some say, a tie-in promotion with HKT48's newest single and establish someone new to public (which is not bad, but I also agree that NMB and SKE would be way more benefited with something like that). I don't follow her, but I liked her in 'Saikou Kayo!'. Might be a random thing, just like Miru was chosen over Fuuchan for Kibouteiki Refrain back in 2014, who knows...

 

Someone fault.... mmh i think it's no one's fault. The situation itself is so difficult it is impossible to please everyone. Management had to search for the most profitable outcome to let AKB survive. In that case, it is strengthen AKB48 new gen core members like Juri, Kojimako, Okada Nana, Annin, etc.

The answer to AKB survival actually come from Nogizaka. They have extremely popular members concentrated in only a few handshake event and concert. sales are skyrocketing because fans have little/no alternative to see/support their favourites.

If you go deep in thinking, you realize the problem is our girls popularity. We don't sell as much as we used to be. More like everything is being spread toward much more members. If AKB had more super strong popular members Mayu/Yukirin Level, i do think management would have suggested Sister group independance ( because participating in AKB events weaken our own handshakes, and sister group are ruled by different companies). The problem is that we can't do that. How AKB system worked, we historically pushed sister group Aces within AKB itself. Sister group aces got stronger thanks to AKB and now we can't let them go anymore because of being dependant of their popularity. Ironically, sister group ace are both reason of AKB strength (strong sales) and weakness ( more not popular AKB members). Management is starting to push pure AKB members again but it's so late it's putting everyone in a difficult position.

Nogizaka won't have this problem with Keyakizaka because they don't trade member and are independant to each other ( and incidentally have much more resources to promote their girls...) So when the fateful day come where Nogizaka will do 2 shots or special fanservice in their upcoming single, it's not impossible to see them overcoming AKB. In the long run, that is ( Nogizaka popular members are less likely to graduate than Mayu, Sasshi, Yukirin in the next few years).

We talk about outcome, but what about resolving the issue? What can we do to stop the bleeding? Why bother to brainstorm ourselves if what only matters is a member's capability to appeal to fans? To find a 4000 years idol once again.

If we talk in the long run, i would say we should let it go. We should free ourselve from this stupid rule that is " the million at any cost" and start fresh again with entertainment that strengthen the bond between a fan and an idol. Give more tools to members to show their appeal, even if it means no direct refunds ( Showroom for example, being active in popular SNS). And maybe let go of Sister group powerhouse and work on their own future.

This million copies sold popularity is a huge fallacious lie anyway. We are not national idol anymore, and last survey showed 60% of asked japanese have no opinion of us. Compared to 2011-12 (our golden age), we lost 50% of our Commercial/endorsement contract (gone with Yuko, tomochin, Acchan, mariko...). And Sister group suffer much more from powerful members graduation than AKB48, because obviously SKE can't hire NMB Aces to promote themselves, while AKB can. SKE went from 600k sales to LESS than HKT, which is 255k. We are just trying to save face, but because of that we can't bounce back to a healthier situation.

 

@gocchisama has a very true point here: the group itself is no longer a powerhouse like it was during its peak era (there are barely individual endorsements for members and the sales have been relatively stable thanks to the sister groups aces here and there) - when Kojiharu graduates, the only remaining Kami 7 from the Golden Era will be Mayu (and she is very likely to graduate soon as well). And if the rumours about Paru are true, there is another popular face leaving the building as well...Yukirin may have her days counted as well, especially given she will be one of the oldest members (and one of the few remaining known to general audiences).

This gave me a flashback from months ago, when Karen was featured in a Touhoku-related show, the response about her on Twitter was pretty positive, praising her looks and attitude during the show. And that was shortly before she graduated! I don't think the problem are the girls, it's just that the push is inconsistent, and while some have CM contracts at times (Tomu, Mion, Yuria, and recently Tano), they might not be associated with AKB most of the times. So unless you are in the fandom, you may not know who they are completely (ex. Tomu = 'Party People' from the Shinsei Bank LAKE CM might be recognized, but how about her fame /as/ AKB48 member?).

 

Although popularity may have a important role in senbatsu line-up, I don't think it's the most important one.

Senbatsu members represent the group in several media eventes so I guess that management take in consideration how the girls perform in the media and choose the ones they think have a better performance or may have in case of new senbatsu members.

So media performance may have a more important role than popularity (or even beauty) in being chosen for senbatsu in my opinion.

 

Why the are going to push Tomu?

I understand you fans wanting more for her but from AKS stanpoint they are probably like "meh shes doing great by herself,let it be that way".

I dont get Yuria doe,someone in management must really liker her.

 

I disagree with the weakest link being Sayanee. But looking back with hindsight Must be Now seems like a dreadful misstep. At the time it could have been seen as an audacious attempt to shake things up and try something different but looking at it now, of the 9 person senbatsu 3 have graduated and 2 have announced graduation and that's from a single less than a year ago. Of the other 4, Ishida Yuumi hasn't made another senbatsu and Konomin was dropped from the latest senbatsu. Since then it just seems like NMB have been in damage limitation mode.

HKT on the other hand seem to have a senbatsu that has the potential to be around for another 3 or 4 years (aside from Sasshi and Lovetan obviously) while at the same time bringing through new girls to freshen it up. It seems that AKS have confidence in HKT management given the fact that they've kept their ship stable despite the fact that they have less resources and a smaller market and they've been rewarded with extra places in senbatsu.

 

Because she (or anyone else) would do even better with push? I don't understand this question.

 

Let's go back to coupling unit speculation/prediction/wishlist, shall we?

 

I'm noticing 3 members on senbatsu:

1. Sayaya. She's my kami-oshi so I'm happy she makes it. I hope next singles of AKB48 have more than 16 senbatsu members (except post-sousenkyo single maybe) so Sayaya can always get into senbatsu, she becomes regular senbatsu member.
2. Rikatan. NGT48 representative. I hope next single involving NGT48 members, will be Ogiyuka, my another oshimen to be senbatsu.
3. Hana. Wow she gets heavy push. She centers HKT48's latest single, now she's in AKB48 single senbatsu. As comparison, NakoMiku have never centered HKT48 single nor being chosen as to AKB48 single senbatsu.

 

Just want to throw in my two-cent as SKE oshi.

Nao's push in AKB ended after two years of kennin. Nao is becoming the next Rena, focusing on acting and her own group. She's done a good job centering, enough to leave impressions when frequently subbing for Jurina on events. But it's just that and position on singles. And Ryouha and Rara are definitely not enough, though AKB mgmt is pushing them. Ryouha's stagnated lately and Rara is not even in ssk top 100 like Katomina or Rika.

NMB's next aces fare much better and are pushed in AKB, at least in the case of Miru and Riripon. RH concerts should not have much impact. So when I get that SKE mgmt plan does not align with the mothership, I fail to see the same with NMB.

 

I'd rather they have special units as b-sides. With possibly 5 versions they can throw everyone in since AkB only have like 60ish members including KKS excluding team 8

Say 3 special units like the gumis and the animal units, 1 for team 8 and one for whoever are left in AKB, 1 for Renacchi SSK.

 

I expect:

• 5 team songs
• Renacchi senbatsu
• Jisedai song
• Something for Kojiharu (as @Rurouni said, indicating her leaving soon)
• Maybe another NogiKeyaki collab
• A small chu-like unit (kks?)

I do hope the KKS are promoted asap as well.
If nothing happens in the theatre (Yuitan was special cause A7 was a special occasion), I expect the janken tournament to have a bunch of announcements, as well as the first performance.

 

i would've prefered Nako or Miku instead of Matsuoka Hana

 

@Rurouni I don't think "top girl graduating" means "center" too much.

We've only seen it with Yuko, Takamina, Rena, Nana, Milky and Maimai, I think.

Management can very well give Kojiharu a graduation song in this single and force it into performances on TV like they did with 365 and the baseball song this summer.
And I think it would be smart to present the public with two songs they might like than just the a-side.

About staggering graduations, I think it's a given. But simply because the moment one (big) girl announces her graduation, others might refrain from doing so because a) they don't want to steal the thunder of the first one or b) their announcement might go unnoticed since the first one is bigger.
I think that's why we don't see many big names leaving on the same year (2014 was Yuko, 2015 was Rena, 2016 was Takamina and so on).

I do believe this is a last hurrah for Paruru after a year and X months being almost absent. Could see her leaving by the next spring concert.