[GENERAL] THE HKT48 thread!

when someone can't even get their first "fact" correct there seems little point in indulging the rest of the tl;dr

 

Look, I can tell already that I am conversing with someone whose comprehension of computers is just barely enough to allow them to turn on the computer, access a website and type-- and probably even then so maybe I should get that websites are all MAGIC to you and as MAGIC they automatically always function as they should. But, I didn't say it was the PEOPLE who chose the wrong name, I said I believed it was possible that the SYSTEM was coded incorrectly at first explaining why those who are consistently by every other metric far more popular ranked so long and her so high.

When a girl who
* Is barely ever spoken about in any fan communities, both international and japanese.
* Has a Google+ account and 755 account that get not as many likes or comments as other members
* Is not heavily featured on any HKT48 programing or advertisement or concerts or other events.
* Does not do particularly well at handshake events...

Somehow by every other measure does not appear to even by in the top 10 of HKT48 instead turns around and gets twice as many votes as those who in every other contest appear to be particularly more popular and well-known than her, something seems massively off. It is one thing for someone like KomiHaru who gets heavily featured on AKBingo every single week and has put out popular photoshoots to jump from unranked to ranking into the senbatsu in one year. For someone most casual fans would have to ask "who?!" and then told she is back there buried in the backrow of the senbatsu and has been for a while... just... most never even noticed? Yeah, that is wonky.

But, hey, I am happy to admit that whatever wonky shenanigans happened last year repeated this year and it doesn't look like the system swapping votes can be blamed. So something else is happening to make her rank in higher than say... Tanaka Miku, who by every metric is WAY more popular than Fuchigami Mai.

As for Hana... if she got as many votes a she has sold handshake tickets since the sousenkyo, she would have ranked in.

I should have written nearly instead of over. I checked it and got confused about which was march and which was july.

Gen 1 debut, July 2011
First single, March 2013

So it was 1 year 8 month or 20 months.

SKE from first gen to debut was 11 months
NMB was 9 months
and NGT has been around for 13 months and so unless it takes 7 months to put out the single that has already been announced...

The fact that it took twice as long as SKE or NMB for HKT to even get their first single still stands and still WAY longer than NGT. Although it does appear that SKE and NMB's second gen were anounced a few months before the first single was released... about 3-4 months in both cases as opposed to 6 months in HKT's case. Nonetheless, I suppose that makes Meru's push even more unjustified than I was allowing for.

Just because she auditioned for Morning Musume's 10th gen and failed by a single spot? I don't know what the management is thinking. But no one else who has ever been chosen as center for the groups first 3 singles has ever fallen so far.

NGT will be the first one to release their first single before 2nd gen appears.

 

I agree that Hanachan's current push has gained her popularity that she otherwise would not have, but I don't think she will drop off anytime soon. To be dropped all of a sudden means management is facing problems with the push; the girl is saying or doing things that aren't center worthy, lack of fan response or too much negative response, situation changes so their push changes(sometimes to a different girl), or a better choice appears.

Meru acted too much off center for management to keep pushing her. I see a similar thing Happening to Sakura but no way near as severe as Meru's drop, Sakura says too many negative things and often seems her response are planned so management is putting her on hold while they check out other girls like Mion for center. Kojimako didn't pull in the big numbers in 2015 SSK so they put her on hold too, but she has made good use of her appearances since then and her 2016 SSk ranking was good so she is back in the hunt.

On the other hand, Hanachan hasn't messed up, the big push has grown her popularity(not to SSK levels yet) and she is the best choice of the new gen. Their not going to drop her until they feel the push is going nowhere or the girl will cause too much problems.

 

Kumamoto event forced to stop due to bad weather ..... Seems like Sasshi & Sakura are shaking hands with fans who are at the entrance due to the cancellation of event.

Multiple HKT members expressing regrets on their 7gogo accounts.

I think Miku will be the one most saddest.

Spoiler: List of members

深川舞子（HKT48）

熊本に来てくださった皆さん
雨と雷がなっていて
中止になってしまいました(T-T)
ごめんなさい、、

みなさんは風邪引かないように
おうちにかえったら即あったまってください！
https://7gogo.jp/fukagawa-maiko/38233/info/retalk


冨吉明日香

悪天候により
皆さんの安全を考えた結果
イベントが中止となってしまいました。

せっかくたくさんの方に
来ていただいたのに
申し訳ない気持ちでいっぱいです。

他にもたくさんのステージや
イベントを用意していたのに
すごく残念です…

すごい雨だったので
皆さん風邪ひかないように
気をつけてくださいね！！
https://7gogo.jp/tomiyoshi-asuka/2113/info/retalk


冨吉明日香

天候は誰のせいでもないので
どうしようもないことですが
悔しいよーーーー（；＿；）
https://7gogo.jp/tomiyoshi-asuka/2114/info/retalk

岩花詩乃

雨が降ってしまって中止になりました。
少しの時間だったけど屋台に行かせてもらって、たくさんの方とお話をしながら楽しめたのに残念です

みんな風邪ひかないでね！

またいつか来れるように頑張ります。
https://7gogo.jp/iwahana-shino/19301/info/retalk



今田美奈

熊本イベント雷雨により、やむを得ず中止になりました。

たくさん準備をしてとても楽しみにしていたので
本当に残念で、悔しいです

たくさんの方に集まっていただいたのに、申し訳ないです。
皆さん風邪ひかないようにしてください…
https://7gogo.jp/imada-mina/8017


坂本愛玲菜

イベント中止になりました…
ごめんなさい。悲しいー…
https://7gogo.jp/sakamoto-erena/7305

田島芽瑠

熊本でのイベント。
メンバー、スタッフさん皆んな一丸となって皆さんに楽しんで頂こうと開催していましたが、、
雨と雷の警報でこれ以上は危険という判断で中止になってしまいました。

天気なのでしょうがない事なのではありますが…
気持ちがたくさんあった分、とても残念です。

フラフープ、ダーツ、そして少ししか滞在できなかったですが
ステージにも行かせていただきました。

今日をとても楽しみにしていた皆様には
申し訳ない気持ちでいっぱいです。
ですが、皆さんの安全が第一です。

並んでくださった方
来てくださった方
ありがとうございました。

これから来る予定だった方も…。


また、会いに来たいです！
https://7gogo.jp/tashima-meru/15307



ともながみお

熊本でのイベント
雷雨のため中止になりました。
本当にごめんなさい、、、

たくさんの方が来て下さって
本当にありがとうございます。

並んで下さった方に
はるっぴさんと一緒にご挨拶させて頂きました。

また、熊本に来ます。
http://stat.7gogo.jp/appimg_images/20160804/17/2f/Qc/j/o19201440p.jpg

栗原紗英(HKT48)

熊本イベント、天候の悪化により
途中で中止となってしまいました。

来てくれたたくさんのみなさん、
本当にありがとうございます>_<！！
ごめんなさい。

やっと会いに来れたのに..
悔しいです..
また絶対会いに来ます。
https://7gogo.jp/kurihara-sae/4747


駒田京伽

天候の関係で
熊本でのイベントは中止になりました…
沢山の方々に来て頂いていたのに
とても残念です…
少しの時間でしたが
色んな方と触れ合えて楽しかったです！
またいつか絶対しましょう！

急な雨で
傘など持っていない方が多かったと思います
風邪などひかないよう
体調には気をつけて下さい！
https://7gogo.jp/komada-hiroka/9923


らぶたん

熊本のイベントにきてくれた皆さん。
雨と雷の影響で、危険と判断され中止なってしまいました。
本当に私たちも今日をとても楽しみにしていたのでとても残念です。
私もステージ用意していたんだけどね…仕方ないですね。
また必ず熊本に会いに来ます。
https://7gogo.jp/oota-aika/7286


山本茉央（HKT48）

雨で中止。
来てくださった方本当に
ありがとうございました。。
悲しい悔しい。
すごく楽しかったです(/ _ ; )
本当にありごとうございました。
https://7gogo.jp/yamamoto-mao/7764


外薗葉月

みんなは、風邪引かないでね

イベント中止みたいです。。
ほんとに悲しい。

やっと熊本来れたのに。。
また絶対来るよ。
絶対。
https://7gogo.jp/hokazono-haduki/2647/info/retalk



松岡菜摘
天候で熊本でのイベントが中止になってしまいました
たくさん集まってくださったのにごめんなさい
きっとまたいつか！絶対に！

雨に濡れて寒いと思います。風邪ひかないようにしてください
そして気を付けてかえってください

でも誰のせいでもないから。
次また熊本のみなさんに会えることを願うのみですね、、、
https://7gogo.jp/matsuoka-natsumi/11283/info/retalk

せりーぬ
雨と雷で熊本でのイベントが中止になりました
来てくださった皆さんには本当に申し訳ないです
みんなと楽しみたかったのに〜……
https://7gogo.jp/kumazawa-serina/21113

岡本尚子

雷雨でこれ以上のイベントは、危険となり今回のイベントが中止となりました>_<
熊本のイベントに足を運んでくださった皆さんごめんね>_<
https://7gogo.jp/okamoto-naoko/14461


田中 美久

熊本イベント中止、、
本当に悔しい！悔しい、悔しい、本当に悔しい。。
くやしさで胸の中がいっぱいです。。
https://7gogo.jp/tanaka-miku/10658/info/retalk


坂口理子

悪天候とみなさまの安全を考えた上
イベント中止になりました（ ; ; ）
本当に申し訳ない気持ちでいっぱいです。
さっきまであんなに日が照っていたのに(>_<)
暑い中ずっと待っててくださったみなさまの気持ちや
熊本で今日を楽しみに待っててくださっていたファンのみなさまの気持ちを思うと、、、残念です。

みなさんお足元にお気をつけてくださいね(>_<)
https://7gogo.jp/sakaguchi-riko/12378

森保まどか

熊本でのイベント、
中止になってしまいました。
ごめんなさい。
https://7gogo.jp/moriyasu-madoka/9194


山田麻莉奈

イベント、雨の影響で中止になってしまいました。。
来てくださった皆様、
ありがとうございました。
https://7gogo.jp/yamada-marina/1456/info/retalk


せりーぬ

雨と雷で熊本でのイベントが中止になりました
来てくださった皆さんには本当に申し訳ないです
みんなと楽しみたかったのに〜……
https://7gogo.jp/kumazawa-serina/21113


秋吉優花

雨の中来て下さった皆さん。
今日のイベントは中止になってしまいました。（；＿；）

本当に申し訳ありません。。
来てくださった皆さんが、風邪引かない事を祈っています...
せっかく来てくださったのに
何も出来なくて、本当にごめんなさい。
https://7gogo.jp/akiyoshi-yuka/9438


本村碧唯 (HKT48)

イベント中止。。。
皆さんほんとにごめんなさい。
雨降って雷なって、これ以上はキケンだと言われました。
凄い楽しみにしてたのに残念です。

始まってからすぐ雨降っちゃったからせっかく来てくれたのに会えなかった方もきっと多いですよね。

ほんとに申し訳ないです。
ごめんなさい。

また熊本に会いに来ます！
https://7gogo.jp/motomura-aoi/3148


宮脇咲良

来てくださった皆さん
本当に申し訳ありません。
天候の為、今日のイベントは中止になりました。
雨の中来てくださった皆さん、風邪引かないように気をつけてください。
https://7gogo.jp/miyawaki-sakura/5495


若田部遥

悪天候により今回のイベントは途中で中止になってしまいました。
来てくださったみなさんすいません。暑い中たくさんの方が集まって待ってくれていただけに残念です。
お帰りの際はお足元に気をつけて。雨に濡れた方もいると思うので体調にも気をつけて下さいね。
https://7gogo.jp/wakatabe-haruka/5156


兒玉 遥 (はるっぴ)　@haruka_kdm919

雷が停滞しているみたいで、熊本イベントは中止になってしましました。
ごめんなさい。
かなしい
どこにもぶつけられないもどかしさ。
https://twitter.com/haruka_kdm919/status/761116810766749696

 

They have better data but does management know better? I don't agree. A lot of their successes came from fan suggestions and feedback;Two big ones are Marikosama and SSK. Plus, they had their share of failures;Some big ones are JKT, TPE, and SNH

Also. management can do whatever they want if they don't care about loosing money. Since they love money too much, they tread very carefully.

 

If management can actually sell, air in a jar... Then I think they're doing alright. #printmoney

 

I watched Hello! Project utterly self-destruct under bad management decisions. Yes, the company still exists-- but it is a shell and shadow of what it once was. I see AKB48 Group making a lot of self-destructive decisions too, but it is countered by the fact that they have learned to become so predatory that they don't need to worry about self-destructing.

Having better "data" doesn't mean one makes better decisions.

But, you are right that it is mostly an emotional thing. Because on an intellectual level, I think AKB48 group has been trending WAY too far towards mature and a big reason for that is that all its biggest stars are over 20 years old at this point... when they were in their golden era, everyone was between 16-20.

But after seeing Hana unduly favored on Odekake.... and the result being Yui breaking down crying, Haruppi leading a cheer when Hana wasn't there and Anna being treated even more as trash as she seeks out any sort of approval or attention... And Hana? Not only has she basked in the undue adulation, she has come across as downright mockingly cruel to her seniors at times due to this. The one thing HKT48 had going for it, one could see at the sousenkyo, is that of all the groups they had the tightest, warmest relationship and were the most supportive of one another. Any HKT48 member gets their name called-- everyone jumps to their feet cheering, anyone near touches the person and Sashihara gives every single one a hug before they go to the stage...

How does that remain if the management decides the new girl is the mega superstar and everyone else is a failure and trash? What's the point of anyone doing anything if the attention is solely on those coming in?

Having Hana as center before she has even ranked into the senbatsu... I don't like it. I believed entirely it was inevitable that she was going to be in the senbatsu because Team TII needs SOMEONE to be the star.... and that's got to be Emily, Hazuki and.... who? Vivian has a great personality, but... let's face it... she's not the prettiest girl around... everyone else is 3rd gen, pretty much those who got buried in favor of pushing Nako/Miku, Misaki is the only one who seems to have real traction... So it had to be Hana if only because so much attention had been brought upon her. Pretty much the only things Maria has going for her is that she is still a little kid and looks even younger than she really is so she gets to be all the members' little sister.

But there is a big difference between "in the senbatsu" and "the center". I am not happy about how Nako/Miku got pushed in the moon in a way that others were robbed of any chance of having any sort of impact. The worst was only Nako and Miku getting to be on the music show with Sashihara while the others sat in the back and waited to do their song. The fact they told Ueki and Murashige to feel shitty for being dropped from the senbatsu for not "utilizing their opportunity" of being back in the senbatsu when they were literally afforded no opportunities to do so because ALL the attention HAD to be on Nako/Miku and Sashihara.

But... fine... Nako/Miku have been pushed to the moon for 2 years, gotten duets and solo songs and an AKB Kenin which gives everyone a massive boost. Fine, it was messed up, screwed over someone I feel is underrated... but it was done. Now... let THEM be the center like the company has been building towards for the last couple years. Giving up on them just when the goal is close and changing over to the new girl strikes me as a really crappy decision, but it means everyone else just got that much more devalued.

That being said... I see NO ONE in HKT48 complaining about it.... granted... I had no idea Haruka threw a massive fit over Meru being center nor that she had been nursing a grudge towards Meru ever since until I saw the documentary. Similarly, I had no idea that it was Ueki who broke down crying on the spot about being left out of Shekarashika! while Anna was pretty stoic about it and comforted Ueki. Because Ueki wrote on social media that she was just disappointed while Anna wrote that she cried for two days when she thought how disappointed everyone must be in her.

You know what is more crappy though? In the sousenkyo Tomiyoshi's fans won her a decent rank, and I don't want to see that ignored. Because if it gets ignored, then it will feel a lot less meaningful to actually vote for someone who the management isn't already pushing to the moon. Hana being center has nothing to do with the management ignoring Tomiyoshi's big victory, because I figured Hana would be in there somewhere regardless... but... it is hard to separate it.

I mean... technically... it is Yui whose place Tomiyoshi should have gotten. At least for just one single.

After what Kumamoto has suffered this year, I would think that they should do everything in their power to reschedule it. I know the schedule is tight, but.... seriously..... AKB48 has made it a point to visit the areas that got hit with one Tsunami constantly since it happened. Kumamoto suffered horrifying earthquakes again and again and again for two weeks. Surely HKT can put a bit more effort in showing love for the people there.

It's also... disappointing... that only Sashihara and Sakura stayed. Somehow I doubt that was as much that only Sashihara and Sakura wanted to as much as the management decided it should only be them....

Again, I don't have a whole lot of faith in management making smart decisions.

 

Mariko rang, said hi.

 

You might want to adjust it now.

#Learn2Separate then. Myself throwing a vote for Tomiyoshi(And only her in HKT side this year)and I don't mind the ignorance. More fuel for fans support.
She will be included in senbatsu, sooner or later.

Rest is no comment.

 

And Nyannyan, and Yuko.

 

I would say Heavy Rotation was what put them on the map.

 

Okay, let's use Heavy Rotation side-by-side to Love Trip.

Heavy Rotation was released in 2010.8.18
Senbatsu members - Oshima Yuko (21), Kojima Haruna(22), Sashihara Rino(17). Shinoda Mariko(24), Takajo Aki(18), Takahashi Minami(19), Nakagawa Haruka(18). Maeda Atsuko(19), Akimoto Sayaka(22), Itano Tomomi(19), Ono Erena(16), Minegishi Minami(17), Miyazawa Sae(19), Kasai Tomomi(18), Kashiwagi Yuki(19), Kitahara Rie(19), Sato Amina(19), Miyazaki Miho(17), Watanabe Mayu(16), Matsui Jurina(13), Matsui Rena(19)

Oh... You SO totally caught me by pointing out that 4 people out of 21 were not younger than 20 years old! 17/21 is the majority of the members. In fact, it is nearly ALL the members. Over 80% were younger than 20 when the video came out.

Anyway-- average age of this group?... 18. Yes, the AVERAGE age of the group in the video where everyone wore lingerie (which now is laughably tame compared to the gravure we are seeing the girls put out every week) was 18.

Love Trip9
Senbatsu - Sashihara Rino(23), Shimazaki Haruka(22), Yokoyama Yui(23), Mukaichi Mion(18), Muto Tomu(21), Kashiwagi Yuki(25), Watanabe Mayu(22), Okada Nana(18), Takahashi Juri(18), Matsui Jurina(19), Suda Akari(24), Yamamoto Sayaka(23), Kodama Haruka(19), Miyawaki Sakura(18), Kitahara Rie(25), Kojima Haruna(28)

So in almost exactly 6 years we have gone from a group where 4 out of 21 were above 20 years old to a group where 11/16 are above 20 years old. The average age here is 21. So despite all the graduation that happen "way too soon", despite the hard pushing of new girls over the ones who are struggling... at the end of the day?... In the last 6 years, the average age of the senbatsu has gone up by 3 years.

There are no 13 or 16 or 17 year old girls making it into the senbatsu anymore. At this point there really is no chance of anyone making it to that level of popularity before they have been in the group for at least 4 years. Yes, when you start a brand new sister group from the beginning you can get a senbatsu that is younger-- but the average age does climb up surprisingly quickly.

Seriously-- by all means call me out on a mistake, but if you are just going to be contradictory to be contradictory because it hurts so much to actually thinking-- just... don't bother.

Now... why should this matter? Well... AKB48, Morning Musume, Momoiro Clover, etc. all hit their absolute peaks when one could still construe the group to be "high school girls" or, as noted, average age of about 18. Because at that point they were still lively, happy, innocent, and could appeal to all ages in different ways. Now that the average age has risen, we see AKB48 group flat out using sexual appeals far more so than it seems like the group would have been comfortable with 6 years ago. Again, Heavy Rotation was SHOCKING at the time... given the photobook and cover of Anan that Sashihara just did, it is downright laughable to think that anyone could remotely think Heavy Rotation to be shocking.

So, really... assuming the ship hasn't sailed, the cows haven't gotten out of the barn, that things can still be fixed.... it is probably a good thing to push the youngest girls. Because maybe when the managers and producers have to consider that they have underaged girls still as part of the group, they might have second thoughts about whether they are really okay with having members of the group appear on magazine covers in nothing but a pair of sheer panties with "Become beautiful through sex!" "Shall we have sex?!" written on it.

That is something real to consider. Yes, the company can make a lot more money by inching more and more and more towards doing outright pornography. Ever more pushing the envelope... and maybe that is inevitable the more it becomes an "adult woman" group and is aiming towards appealing to lonely 30+ year old men exclusively.

But even if it CAN make more money that way... is that what you really want? I mean if you are going to be honest.... The idea of Nako and Miku not really "making it" until they are 20 and at that point... if they are "serious" about their career... they have to not only match Sashihara's sexual appeals to fans, they have to SURPASS that to ever more raise the bar.... that... well.. what the hell has Maria even gotten into? Just how crass will things have become... just how "adult" will they have gotten by the time it is her turn to finally get into that spotlight? From Heavy Rotation being absolutely scandalously shocking to girls regularly doing gravure that looks like adult video covers-- by the time Maria has a chance to break in, things are surely going to be pushed in this same direction that much more 6 years plus down the line.

You can't really separate things so that "just because one member does something, it doesn't affect anyone else" because that just isn't true. Because whatever generates the most cash, popularity and attention is something others HAVE to emulate if they are going to compete and then set the standard for behavior that everyone has to adhere to down the line. They either do it and raise the bar.... or they become irrelevant.

Never was there better evidence than Mio's comments about gravure.... She thought it was dirty so she didn't want to do it all at first... and then she realized by showing off her big boobs in skimpier and skimpier outfits in more and more provocative poses, she could make tons of money and would rocket through the ranks without having to be able to sing or dance or act or otherwise perform well at all. So after that she wanted to do even more and push it even further to reap even more benefits.

This is what happens when the group shifts from being one where 13-16 year olds are regularly in the senbatsu to being assured that no one under 18 has any chance of making it to the top ranks and the majority are absolutely adults.

And is all this moving in a direction where you would still want the little sisters of current members to join?
This plus 15-25 more years of moving in this general direction.... Is this a group you would want your own daughters to join?

But.... of course... no one else actually thinks about these things.

 

Maybe because no one else wants to go careening off the ledge of hyperbolic slippery slope arguments that you jumped in headfirst.
Your post (what I read of it) is rife with logical fallacies and laced with scare tactics without a shred of evidence to back up your claims. It's a trillion words of you spouting doom and gloom prophecies and preaching morality based only on your opinion.
Yeah, nobody else wants to do that.

 

Too bad twitter is only 140 characters


#stage48.txt

 

Tell you what. Give even the slightest, smallest shred of evidence or reasonable conjecture of any sort that no one else in all of AKB48 group will EVER go this far, again much less any further, given that even Heavy Rotation was considered scandalous and shocking only 6 years ago and by now even THIS apparently doesn't make you so much as bat an eye.

Because if this is what Sashihara is doing NOW, which would have been unthinkable 6 years ago, it is completely reasonable to project that those who follow Sashihara most closely will be doing what is now totally unthinkable in 6 more years.

Spoiler

Mod note: oversized photo removed

 

You're actually using the "Won't somebody please think of the children?" argument, bwahahahaha


if the video does not show watch the video here

 

...or what Sasshi did 4 years ago. Maybe you're right?

Spoiler