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The 2016 Stage48 Senbatsu Sousenkyo Exit Poll/Reasoning Thread

Discussion in 'Forum Events' started by ithebigc, Jun 7, 2016.

  1. ithebigc

    ithebigc Stage48 Admin Staff Member Stage48 Admin

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Location:
    Fukuoka, Japan
    Oshimen:
    Miyawaki Sakura
    Twitter:
    ithebigc
    The Stage48 45th Single Senbatsu Sousenkyo Exit Poll

    As per tradition, we're going to count the number of votes the Stage48 community cast in the sousenkyo this year. You had your fun with the 9th Annual Stage48 Member Ranking, now let's see if you can put your money where your mouth is and actually vote for your oshis when it actually matters!

    Remember, this is only an exit poll. It is simply a count and a representation of how the international community as a whole voted, so don't lie on this. It won't help your oshi in the actual election [hehe] Our former administrator put it best:
    You can vote here: http://akb48-sousenkyo.jp/web/akb2016/vote/index

    Rules/Directions

    Actual Sousenkyo Voting Period: May 31, 2016, 10 am - June 17, 3 pm (JST)
    Stage48 2016 Sousenkyo Exit Poll Voting Period: Now - June 17, 6 pm (JST)

    That gives you up to 3 hours after the actual voting period closes to let me know how you voted, after that I'll be releasing the results ASAP before the actual sousenkyo.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Now, some of you may have noticed I also labeled this the "Reasoning" thread and was wondering why. Simply put, I'd like to hear the reasons why people are voting for certain member(s) in this thread. If you're going all out in voting for your oshimen, that's wonderful, and I'd like to hear what she did that made you like her so much. If you're splitting your votes among multiple members, I'd like to read about what each of them did that you felt deserves your physical support using actual money. If you're voting for Mayuyu just to beat Sasshi, good on you, I want to hear about that too haha :approve:

    It's entirely optional whether you want to share or not and you can participate in the exit poll without sharing, but this thread would be super boring on its own (results go in a separate thread) so I'd thought I'd try to spice it up, instead of having only a couple pages of "I sent you my votes!"

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Votes counted (2888): arifer, Atsu-nee, atypicalbird, Berii, Delia Pink, Doacb, estrella, explorerdk, GATX105, GeoFreak, H-kun, hermionepj1, hinapyon, Hiyo-P, ithebigc, JOELicious, JoltFiend, jovviny, jujuchuu, JustinTheKoolKid, KashiwagiFan4Life, Kisasa, Kuura, KyriosArios, levitski, Lisa, LNK_Tomu, MeoJim, mieniem, Millyna, Monobroke, moolit, Nagatsuki Nara, nanabanana, Nieru, NitiB, oji-sama, OshimaYuko, pacmanamcap, parubably, pinkfluffballs, Platinum, plomeplome, ranchu, rka, Saitsuki, saki48, Samara Morgane, sasayakasayaka, Sayaka.Sakura92, Slimestack, Snowman81, sonsam, Soumi~Haruka, SOW48, spacelion, Spektroll, Spoony Rice, StealthEXE, stv-wong, takatophilip, takin, tokidoki, tomi, Tommy Idoc, trxsh, tsukiname, Tsumu, USA48, Voightkampff, wendychi, WingsofAngels48, wlerin, x_lambs, Yukitie, zeroshiki, Zwetschge

    Tentative (439): Arbios, Boukyoku, Kyouka, Reveen, True_Beginner, YumeNoRui
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2016
  2. WingsofAngels48

    WingsofAngels48 Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2013
    Oshimen:
    Yokoyama Yui (Team A)
    I voted for Tano Yuka because she really needs to be pushed into a higher position on management's radar. She's a great member who needs to be a bigger part of the New Gen reform.

    Sent from my LG-H345 using Tapatalk
     
    • Like Like x 1
  3. OshimaYuko

    OshimaYuko Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2015
    Location:
    UK
    Oshimen:
    Kojima Mako
    This year was the first year I've been interested enough in the actual outcome of the election. Last year I had only just recently got into the group so wasn't really aware it was going on.

    This time I'm more into things and am following more closely. I had a thought the other day that if I'm so interested I should probably vote. Since, I'm not from Japan I bought a vote/CD from Brita's Shop on here.

    I was unsure where to place my vote initially. Mayuyu is my overall favourite but I like Kojimako as well. In the end I chose to vote for Kojimako as I felt a vote for her would have a bigger effect than a vote for Mayuyu would. This was both in making a different overall (since Mayuyu would have a ton more votes) and how an increase in position would effect them, I don't think the different between Mayuyu finishing 1st or 2nd would be as big as it would be for Kojimako to finish 16th instead of 24th for example.
     
  4. gotbild

    gotbild Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2012
    Location:
    Göteborg, Sweden
    Oshimen:
    Takajo Aki
    Twitter:
    gotbild
    It feels quite comfortable to say I spent no money at all this year and the reason is simple as you know. I also know this feeling is common among Akicha fanbase. :D
     
  5. Reveen

    Reveen Rank 81-100 (Temporary Name)

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2013
    Location:
    Sunnyvale Trailer Park
    ^ You can get ointment to cure butthurt ya know.
     
  6. rka

    rka Rank 81-100 (Temporary Name) Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Location:
    Fanboy-Ville, District Sae
    Oshimen:
    Tanigawa Airi
    Twitter:
    rka_01
    I reduced my voting from unspeakable amounts to a single digit votes. Because i felt that voting is actually (short-termed, but still) fun.
    This time, i can confirm what @gotbild said; a lot of Sae fans drastically reduced their voting budgets or did not vote at all.

    That said, i voted:

    Kitagawa Ryouha. Because she is SKE's future and needs a proper ranking. Also Sae's oshimen.
    Matsumoto Chikako. She is actually a supercute goofball. Also she wore Sae's Coquettish costume in her appeal video, so i couldnt resist.
    Iso Kanae. Isochan is a cool chick with a very unique physique, and has been among the top ranks of my personal senbatsu for years now. Initially i did not plan to vote for her, because lower tier NMB girls have no chance to rank anyway, and i dont like the feeling of having votes "wasted", but she tweeted some "level-headed, but still touching" tweet about her name not being called during prelims, so i couldnt help it.

    Initially i wanted to spent all votes on Uha, btw.

    If Tanigawa Airi wouldnt have opted out before, i would have voted some low double digits for her. As Sae, Airi, Milky, Chihiro, and Ami were all not eligible, the list of possible voting candidates was drastically reduced anyway.
     
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2016
  7. mieniem

    mieniem Kenkyuusei Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2009
    Location:
    Canada, Ontario
    I ended up more than doubling my votes as a result of increased resolve from last years election, but i reduced it to only 4 members.
    See i'm basically an SKE DD, I have certain members i like more at times, but overall i like all the members in the group. Fact is last year i voted for 20 members last year and only 4 of them got a second vote from me. This year after certain results irking more than any of the others, i decided to only vote for Suda Akari (because i found her fall from sembatsu unacceptable), Futamura Haruka ( Because i think she can really be an interesting member if she just got a little more push) and Yamashita Yukari (because she is the closest to a favorite), but Yukari ended up graduating a few months early so i couldn't vote for her, but that freed up my resolve to vote for Sakai Mei instead, since i was pretty bummed out that she didn't rank in the end. So going through the year with life and starting my career and working almost all the time i decided to buy 50 tickets for the election. However when i finally found a s48 member offering to sell tickets i noticed other members were buying quantities as big as mine and at the second decided to buy 55 votes instead of 50. However i couldn't decide to give extra votes to the 3 i was already voting for, so i had to pick a 4th member to vote for. However being a DD i couldn't really finalize on anyone and kept going back and forth with members, fortunately once the prelims were shown and Takeuchi Saki had shown to ranking at a shocking 9th place i just got all excited and thought it would be most interesting if Saki got the votes and became the first 6th gen in SKE to rank in sembatsu. So i elected to give her my last remaining 5 votes and now i can't wait to see the finals.
     
  8. ithebigc

    ithebigc Stage48 Admin Staff Member Stage48 Admin

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Location:
    Fukuoka, Japan
    Oshimen:
    Miyawaki Sakura
    Twitter:
    ithebigc
    I guess it's my turn. This year I'm putting all my voting power behind Mikurin!

    Optimized-G160604.jpg

    What?! But you're a Sakura oshi!

    That I am. I actually made the decision early in the cycle to at least vote for Mikurin a little bit because she totally guilt tripped me last year, but then the sousenkyo guidebook came out and I saw that Sakura only wanted to rise up in rank. If that was her only goal, I figured she was pretty safe for 6th place and wondered whether I could make a bigger difference elsewhere. That's where Mikurin came in.

    But Sakura actually wants 5th!

    Yeah...I didn't know that until her mobame after the preliminary results. If I had known, I would've stuck with my original plan of throwing a few towards Mikurin and the majority towards Sakura, because I don't see any of the Top 5 falling without a significant push by Sakura oshis. But by the preliminary results, I had already pledged my support towards Mikurin and I don't like to go back on my word when it's within my control :|

    But why Mikurin?

    Last year, she was the member I talked to the most at handshakes (because I couldn't win enough Sakura tickets). Like I always say, her intelligence and ability to hold a conversation belies her age. She also treats her fans exceptionally well, and her handshake sales prove it. For Tsubasa wa Iranai, she was one of 5 HKT48 members to sell out her slots completely, the others being Sakura, Haruppi, Boss and Sasshi. It was the same for the Bokutachi wa Tatakawanai handshakes last year, when her lines stretched so long that a number of her slots started ~30 min late because she was still talking to people from her previous slot. And yet, despite that, despite Sasshi thinking she had a chance last year, she didn't rank. And I don't think she has much of a chance this year either.

    Why do you say that? I thought Mikurin was popular!

    She is! Just that, she's more people's 2-oshi or 3-oshi than kami-oshi. It's the same for me too, since I have her as my 2-oshi. :2nd:Because of that, when push comes to shove in the sousenkyo, people aren't actually voting for her. Those people in her long lines during handshakes, they're just going to see Mikurin because she's fun to talk to, but they're using the votes that came with those handshakes to vote for someone else :oops:

    There was actually a bit of drama in the Japanese fandom a little while back (what, you thought drama was exclusive to Stage48? :fear: ) when a friend of a "fan" (I use that term lightly) told her that they weren't actually voting for her. She became so down for the rest of her slots that day that some other fans noticed, and later she wrote vaguely about it on her G+ saying, "Although the handshake was generally fun, a number of people also said distressing things..." At that point, the "fan" said the Japanese equivalent of "It was just a prank, bro" but resolved not to vote for her now that he had been called out. At that point, someone else in the G+ comments started naming and shaming even people in Mikurin's birthday committee for not voting for her... :eek: Now, all of this is hearsay, so I can't confirm or deny it, but it's undeniable that her handshake sales and general popularity don't match her placing in the sousenkyo and I fear for her position in HKT48's senbatsu if it doesn't change.

    So in the end, it's really a strategic thing that you're voting for Mikurin this year.


    Sure, you can put it that way. I feel horrible that a girl that can value her fans this much and do so much right with regards to being an idol in my eyes, and yet when the time comes when she needs her fans, they're not there for her. You all saw how thankful she was just ranking in the first day results. Mikurin is also a pessimistic person, which is why her theme this year is to "Lose the negativeness." If we can instill a little bit of self-confidence in her and dispel her anxieties by making her rank in, you can bet I'll try my best to do so.

    Sadly, that's easier said than done. I'm friends with someone who knows the Japanese Mikurin fans really well and is in contact with Mikurin's election committee and that's who I'm getting most of the information in this post from, but it's still not looking well for her. She ranked 57th with 5000+ votes in the preliminaries, but it turns out the majority of her loyal fans had to use all they had just to get her to that point :( That means we would still need another ~8000, and now all the fans are scrambling to somehow make up the difference. I may be flushing money down the toilet, but dang it, I won't go down without a fight :wall:It's why I've been begging anyone who has an extra vote or two to vote for Mikurin if they like her, because we need all the help we can get.

    I guess I've always been a "strategic" voter since two years ago [hehe] I've been "on the ground" so to speak for both the 2014 and 2015 elections, and I saw firsthand how hard the fans work to gather votes for their oshimen. From helping get Sakura first get into senbatsu and then get into the Kami 7, I've also seen how the sousenkyo can impact an idol's career. After talking it over with @MurasakiSora (b/c I kept waffling between voting for Sakura or Mikurin), I finally came to the conclusion that even if Sakura only gets 6th and not 5th, while I'd be depressed and hitting myself, it still won't have that big of an effect on her career as compared to Mikurin not ranking in at all.

    And after Mikurin writing a post like this expressing her heartfelt gratitude, I don't know how I'd face her if we still fail. So, full steam ahead. The other Mikurin fans are doing their best, so I'll do my part too and pray to God for the rest :p
     
  9. Arbios

    Arbios Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2016
    Oshimen:
    Komiyama Haruka
    I had 36 votes this year,didn't spend any money lol
    I have 3 japanese friends who studied here in my country for 3 years and we're quite close(we still talk every day) and they were willing to buy cds
    i'm so thankful to them
    i voted for 4 girls:Tanochan,Katomina,Komiharu&Renapon
    I actually made a list of 7 girls who I wanted to vote for and the number of votes but because Tano didn't rank in the preliminaries I was quite worried so I spent most of the votes on her
     
  10. Sae Chan

    Sae Chan Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2014
    Location:
    Member of The Institute for Miyazawa Sae Worship
    Oshimen:
    Miyazawa Sae
    Twitter:
    SaeChanOshi33
    I'm pretty sure Sae Chan would have wanted her fans to vot for someone in SKE
     
  11. mieniem

    mieniem Kenkyuusei Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2009
    Location:
    Canada, Ontario
    Really!? I figured that Sae's fans would have the most complex feelings on who they should vote for.
     
  12. rka

    rka Rank 81-100 (Temporary Name) Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Location:
    Fanboy-Ville, District Sae
    Oshimen:
    Tanigawa Airi
    Twitter:
    rka_01
    Sae didnt mention sousenkyo once in this campaign. As far as i know, graduates rarely tell people whom to vote. As far as i can say from the international fans, they all have either voted not at all, or with drastically reduced budget. As for japanese fans, i dont think there is anything going on other than on the private level.
     
  13. mieniem

    mieniem Kenkyuusei Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2009
    Location:
    Canada, Ontario
    Yeah i kind of figured, that's is why @Sae Chan comment surprised me. I didn't really think her fans owed it to anybody to vote for anyone specifically except the members the individual fans of Sae wished to vote for.
     
  14. Sae Chan

    Sae Chan Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2014
    Location:
    Member of The Institute for Miyazawa Sae Worship
    Oshimen:
    Miyazawa Sae
    Twitter:
    SaeChanOshi33
    So how many SKE members made it an as for my comment don't graduating members usually ask the fans to continue to support the team?
     
  15. sscrla

    sscrla Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2015
    Oshimen:
    Takayanagi Akane
    Maybe a real Sae fan would vote for someone in Team K. ;)

    When I think of Sae, I think of the Team K trio of Yuko, Sae, and Akimoto Sayaka.
     
  16. ithebigc

    ithebigc Stage48 Admin Staff Member Stage48 Admin

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Location:
    Fukuoka, Japan
    Oshimen:
    Miyawaki Sakura
    Twitter:
    ithebigc
    For those new to this (who didn't bother reading the OP :awesome:) you have to PM me the number of votes and which girl. We have a ranking at the end, it's why we do this every year xD

    If you want to explain why the person you're voting for is awesome, do it without revealing the number of votes yet!
     
  17. rka

    rka Rank 81-100 (Temporary Name) Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Location:
    Fanboy-Ville, District Sae
    Oshimen:
    Tanigawa Airi
    Twitter:
    rka_01

    Yeah. but thats the Sae of 2012. In the current Team K, and even in the whole group of AKB48, there arent many members left she has close ties with.
    Instead, SKE, and especially Team S, has become her home for the last year. This is well illustrated by the fact that there was no official message or reaction whatsoever from AKB management for/to Sae's graduation, as well as no AKB members showing up for any of her concerts or theater shows (neither in Nagoya nor in Akihabara). Not even Takamina or Yui had some VTR message for her.
    In the same vein, and understandably, not many Sae fans feel tightly attached to AKB48 :> If anything, you could take Sae's recent visit to the SKE theater as a hint to where her loyalties are.
    Then again, graduated members rarely if ever tell their fans who to vote for. I would even find it not very sportsman-like. Buddy voting is rare as well. People having lost their oshimen either stop voting or are looking for a new oshimen based on their priorities, which rarely are based on the buddy list of their former oshimen.

    Well, if anyone would inherit Sae's votes, then its most probably Kitagawa Ryoha. She was her protégé right from the scratch. But if you want to see it that way, there is some silent fishing going on for Sae oshis. Matsumoto Chikako was wearing a Sae costume during her appeal video, and yesterday, Yukirin pretty much out of the blue showed some unpublished SaeYuki pics in her showroom stream ;>
     
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2016
  18. Furukawa_Akane

    Furukawa_Akane Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2014
    Location:
    Southampton, England
    Oshimen:
    Moriya Akane
    I voted for:

    Churi (Takayanagi Akane) , because she was one of the eternal aces along with Jurina and Rena back then, and since management decided to push back such a noted member in SKE, most of her oshis would be voting for to push her back to the front, and that'll never happen to be honest but we just all like to hope.

    (Furuhata) Nao because she's such a prominent member now and, she wants to support her senpai at the same time. Her resolve to get SKE out their pinch made me want to help her.

    Egochan (Ego Yuna) because she's getting a slight push at the moment and is one of the new gens that I like. Sure, she's not the most talented singer, but she works hard and that's all I need to vote for her tbh.
     
  19. trxsh

    trxsh Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2014
    Location:
    Canada
    Naana went! aha, I guess her schedule would be on the free-er side to be able to make the trek to Nagoya.

    Tutu had said from her fanclub event that Sae said she is cheering for Jurina to get ssk #1, but yeah it's not like she demanded her fans to vote anyone in particular.

    I like the Team K members but that's something completely independent of my oshi. No one in current team K has anything to do with her?? Well besides Tano, their interactions are always precious ^^ but even that precedes AKB since they attended the same dance school lool.

    As for Ryoha, I hope she inherits a lot of rich aunties/uncles!! Pre-lim result wasn't that promising though~

    OKKKKK! My votes/reasoning:
    1 each for Ryoha and Rara. Decreased my volume of votes by a lot, I put in 38 votes for Sae last year not including the bit I contributed to a Chinese pooling (I think equal to 2 or 3 votes). I'm still in oshi grad recovery mode and officially don't really have an oshi, but I'm realising these two have the potential to inspire me and bring me happiness in the same way Sae did so I'm keeping tabs on them. It was a bit different for me since they're younger and I'm used to my oshi being older than me, but whatever, I'm pretty much getting used to being an aunty fan, I guess I'll step up my support more by next year. I'm blessed and thankful that they are so favoured by management but they need the support under all the pressure...

    I'm starting to feel the pressure of being DD, it's bad enough that I split my 2 votes but I also want to see members like Tano, Sayaya and Ayakani do well....
     
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2016
  20. skuf

    skuf Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2014
    Location:
    Australia
    Oshimen:
    Goto Moe
    Twitter:
    TravisSkuff
    i voted for Paruru mostly then it trickled down thru eligible faves, mostly decided on who needed them most (to have an actual effect their standing) and/or circumstances (shown in these babys)

    Nonchan (i usually do The Kanon & Lovetan W but you know, One pulled out, so non got most of hers the lucky shit)

    Kojimako (she's doing a soccer show now ffs, make her a center already... 2020 is too far away lol)

    Piichan, Bossu & Tani (Odekake reasons that will never fade lol)

    Moekyun (watching Team B stages of late has just hooked me on her)

    Miion (when i was a bit drunk, that top lip.... that gravure)

    i've got 1 code left and it's currently a battle between Ogino Yuka and Tano Ayaka based purely from their showroom feeds.... i didn't partake in any NGT until like last week lol... now it's all HELP ME.
     

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