2017 Senbatsu Election Predictions/Hopes/Dreams & Etc

Discussion in 'General AKB48 Discussion' started by x_AozoraKataomoi_x, Dec 12, 2016.

  1. Trinu

    Trinu Under Girls

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    Who's Rena though?
     
  2. Matsui Hikari

    Matsui Hikari Future Girls Stage48 Donor

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    I'm assuming Renacchi lmao.

    Also, Shinozaki Ayana? Why?
     
  3. marioworldakb

    marioworldakb Under Girls Stage48 Donor

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    ^ cuz boobs.

    Dude paru votes gonna probably be split among 9th gen and Yuihan gets a boost to top 7, shimada and komari both ranks in finally this year

    Sent from my LG-D852 using Tapatalk
     
  4. Aka

    Aka Under Girls

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    When people lose their oshimen they don't vote for that girl's friends, they either leave the fandom or vote for the members they like.
     
  5. yousakura

    yousakura Member

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    I've noticed that many of the Paruru oshis on here are also Sakura supporters though

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  6. marioworldakb

    marioworldakb Under Girls Stage48 Donor

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    Well we'll see, I mean some paru votes to Yuihan won't be surprising right?

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    Yeah I'm one of them :D

    But it's just s48 tho? so idk

    sheeet we use the same phone LGG3? High five mate!
     
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  7. Aka

    Aka Under Girls

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    For the ones that like Yuihan too. Being a oshi of one member doesn't mean that you like that member's friendships or that you look at them in a way that you would spend your precious money on them.
     
  8. marioworldakb

    marioworldakb Under Girls Stage48 Donor

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    Yeah, this is just what I need from you. :D

    I believe in the other half of the statement tho.
     
  9. kanjo

    kanjo Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

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    Some, maybe, but light feelings like that rarely amounts to much.
    It'll amount to a handful of people thinking "I should give one to x because my oshi is gone"
    Compared to people who actually have a deep connection with, and put full backing behind, their oshimen, it's pretty much negligible.

    Besides, I don't buy the argument that Paru fans like Yuihan.
    No Japanese Paru fan I know can stand Yuihan... ;P
     
  10. Matsui Hikari

    Matsui Hikari Future Girls Stage48 Donor

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    I actually don't really buy that Paruru oshis are also Sakura oshis lol

    I think that most of Paru's (or most members') votes will just go to the voter's other oshi(s) :hmm:
     
  11. marioworldakb

    marioworldakb Under Girls Stage48 Donor

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    Well, all I am saying is Yuihan just need that little boost to squeeze in kami 7 besides what's wrong with Yuihan senpai? :(

    Like being hella positive at most, if she gets 10% of the 68,000 votes (6800) from Paru, then she will have a legit shot at last place Kami 7.

    In fact I think some Yukirin votes might even go to Sakura too since both are from Kagoshima and fans from the area would tend to vote for the latter?
     
  12. Zerase

    Zerase Member

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    I don't think that votes switch between girls that much once they have graduated, most of Paruru voters will probably not vote this year, unless they have new kamioshi which might but probably won't be the one that was the closest to Paruru. I think the same applies for almost everyone, although if Yukirin sits this one out I could see some of her fans voting for Mayuyu to make her #1 again
     
  13. oji-sama

    oji-sama Kenkyuusei

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    Yeah Renacchi.

    @Matsui Hikari and @kanjo iirc, a lot of people theorized that the reason Shinozaki Ayana ranked in 2015 was because KojiHaru didn't participate, and Ayana really admires/oshis Kojiharu. Imo, that theory is semi-valid considering that there was no real change in her popularity/push but she dropped by 5,000 votes last year (and Kojiharu participated).

    But another example is Tomu, who shot up into UG after Yuko's graduation, which could also have been a coincidence, but I think Yuko's endorsement had at least something to do with it. Paru oshis rena.

    In certain, it makes sense that a former member's fans will be more or less inclined to vote for certain members... IDK, but Paru and Sakura are similar and AnRena are like Kojiharu in many ways (but i suspect Annin won't participate :( ).
     
  14. kanjo

    kanjo Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

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    I do think it has some effect but a lot of people base really wild speculations on it each year and I doubt it has *that* much of an effect.

    Withdrawing from the election (but not graduating) is a bit different though. Especially if they're still participating in HS events, which Kojiharu did back then.
    But even without the sales from HS coming with voting cards, in one scenario the girl you really want to support is still in the group and I think that's a big difference.

    You have to remember a lot of people who supported these big members put a lot of votes in.
    But, unless their oshi's recommendation made the second girl a 2-oshi, any votes gained from the other girl's graduation wouldn't have the same passion (and excuse to spend)
     
  15. Rurouni

    Rurouni Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

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    Personally, I don't think Kitarie votes will go to NGT unless she specifically say to please vote for NGT. For Paruru, I don't know, but I definitely don't think the majority of her votes would go to 9th gen.
    Anyway, a lot of AKB members are rising last year probably came from Takamina votes. For example, I don't think Ryoka can suddenly get 28k votes without it.
    I do believe that the percentage of voters that are leaving the fandom will be bigger if they are fans of someone like Kojiharu and Paruru vs someone like Miki (which I think almost all of her voters will still participate in SSK). Having said that, even if it is only 50% of Paruru votes are available, it is still a lot (34k). The combination of Miki, Naanya, and Ayaka votes are around 50k, so that is a lot of votes too.
    As for similarities, technically Takamina and Yui should be similar (serious character, hard worker and GM), so at least some of Takamina votes should go to Yui, right? nope, Yui votes drop from 63k to 58k. Personally, I think Kojiharu votes that are going to AnRena will be negligible.
     
  16. MindOfALibra

    MindOfALibra Kenkyuusei

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    I don't think the vote transfer works by default either, it probably requires the graduating member's endorsement (like with Yuko and Takamina). Otherwise they are free to grab [hehe]

    @marioworldakb I'm not worried about Yukirin tbh, her votes have always been 90k+ since 2013. And that's still a goal for Sakura to reach. Last year was probably Yukirin's weakest (burnout after 2015's 167k, made-up scandal, solo tour).
     
  17. Arbios

    Arbios Future Girls

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    i'm kinda expecting SKE fandom to go all out and get more than 2 members in sebatsu just like they did in 2015
    so im hoping that Nao or Sally make senbatsu
     
  18. Voightkampff

    Voightkampff Member Stage48 Donor

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    Well as a Paruru oshi my votes are going no where. I don't plan to vote at all. I mean if I happen to pickup up the single 1 copy mind you I might use it for someone. There are plenty of other girls that a may like put none of them give me incentive to spend money on them.

    And @oji-sama how are Paru and Sakura similar in any way at all?
     
  19. Cristina Salazar

    Cristina Salazar Kenkyuusei

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    i think this is the right time for Yuiiri to join SSK, she's doing well to everything and shocked everyone when she rank at the kouhaku even there's some big names that rank lower to her or didn't get into top 48 (+2) senbatsu
    you're not the only one tho, maybe i'm being so biased but i really want to have 5 SKE members in senbatsu and let dasu & jurina for kami 7 & churi in senbatsu duh.
     
  20. Trinu

    Trinu Under Girls

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    I'm on the side of wanting more AKB new gens ranking in.

    Kojimako, Komiharu, Sayaya, Annin (if she participates) all have a shoot at it.

    And while management has already acknowledged them by including them in High Tension and Shoot Sign, having them in the top 16 would push them forward the back row of a 32nin senbatsu.

    As for Yuirii, wasn't she saying after Kouhaku that she wanted her fans to support her the way she wanted (in the theatre) or something like that?

    I'd love for her to enter though. She'd go high.
     

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