Event / Concert AKB48 Janken Taikai (14/09/17)

@hugoa c'mon! We wouldn't say "it was not rigged" if someone before wouldn't have said that it was in the first place!! This is getting plain stupid.

From management's part all we've heard was that they wanted luck to decide the senbatsu once a year. We've heard that AkiP had to write another song because Hashire! Penguin didn't work for Mariko. We've heard Takamina this year saying this isn't rigged, guys, look at that smile!

But I haven't heard nor seen anything that indicates it has been rigged. All I see here is wibbily wobbly timey wimey math that doesn't prove ****.

 

I disagree with the bolded part to an extent. Any evidence that has ever been argued has been purely circumstantial and can be reasonably be explained as coincidence. There is no "smoking gun", those who take the view that the likelihood is that it is not rigged are entitled to expect one to be provided in order to change their view.

 

@Trinu
I believe you misunderstood my post. I didn't said anything about people saying that it was not "rigged". I wrote about people claiming that there is no evidence, or if you prefer, no relevant evidence to defend that theory.
There are evidences to defend that theory. Now, it might not be enough for you, and that's fine, but for other people it might be enough.

Sorry to say that your last paragraph to me it's just . If you understand the math and disagree with it, then please, put your argument forward. To say what you did without anything else...

 

You have no evidence because your so called evidences don't prove anything. That's what an evidence is, something that makes something clear.
An evidence would be someone from the staff wishpering something to Milky's opponents before each match. Have we seen that or anything of the sort? Nope!

What you guys have are assumptions and hypotheses that can't be proven.

 

First of all we should take special care with the definition for "evidence" and "proof" or "fact". Evidence are what they are, You can say it was coincidence that a combination that has less than 5% probability of happening (or even less, according with the math of other people), did actually happen. You can say it was coincidence that the triple center of AKB (Jurina, Shimazaki and Mayuyu) became the center for all singles during late 2012, 2013 and 2014 (with the exception of Sasshi, Yuko and Haruna singles). You can say that, that and other things (that either I don't know or I just don't put so much weight in them) are all coincidence. But what you cannot do is say that they are not evidences, and that other people, that perhaps, either are a bit more cynical or just prefer to believe more in the numbers, believe in them and consider them to be enough to convince them, beyond a reasonable doubt, that something more is at play here.

Honestly I don't want to do this type of thing anymore... Evidence doesn't prove anything: Evidence points you in a direction. "Proofs" prove something. Don't mistake the two of them.

Can you tell me how can you prove the existence/characteristics of, let's say, an electron? What about a photon? Can you provide me with a photograph of a photon? What about a quark? This might seem like a joke but the reality is that many of the characteristics of this particles that rule our lives can only be estimated, and not directly "proven" or even . Why do you accept (and I presume you do) the results that scientists give about this things but now you say that statistics are "assumptions and hypotheses that cannot be proven"?

 

Are you really comparing quantum mechanics to a rock-paper-scissors tournament?

In any case, scientifics have even more evidence about how those particles behave that we do about the whole rigging thing.

But whatever. As you were.

 

Yes, because both can be analyzed using statistics (or can only be analyzed that way). Contrary to what you might believe, data is data, it doesn't matter if the data comes from physics or from poker, data is data. That's the beauty of Math.

Yes, physics uses "3 sigma" (or 5 sigma) to arrive to a conclusion. But other fields of science, be it, natural sciences or behavioral sciences, use the 5% and sometimes the 1% threshold to derive conclusions.

 

The "evidence" that is being put forward is flimsy, you've even had to put a massive caveat in your own post.

Here is the dictionary definition of evidence

"noun
1.
that which tends to prove or disprove something; ground for belief; proof.
2.
something that makes plain or clear; an indication or sign:
His flushed look was visible evidence of his fever.
3.
Law. data presented to a court or jury in proof of the facts in issue and which may include the testimony of witnesses, records, documents, or objects."


The "janken is rigged" conspiracy reminds me of the "tower 7" conspiracy. There is a bunch of circumstantial and coincidental information that people weave into a conspiracy


if the video does not show watch the video here

Then this conspiracy is pursued with an almost religious conviction. What I'm saying is no convincing proof has been presented and for some reason asking for proof is provocative to some people.

 

Ok. Let's see if we can start from common ground:

1 - Do you agree that, at least from beginning 2012, Mayuyu, Paruru and Jurina have been the three "future aces" in the eyes of management?

2 - Do you agree that "Heart Electric" is the only exception to the rule considering that Sasshi's was the result from the election and that Yuko's was her last single?

3 - Don't you find it extremely fortunate for management that the two members (out of three) that were farther from the top spot happened to get the only one single that is decided by chance?

Until now, everything is suppositions and lucky coincidences for management. If after that you get a value below 5% for the combinations of results obtained in this five years, to me, it says that either, management is, unbelievably blessed by...(put your belief here) or something else is at play (and I'm agnostic).

Regarding the definition: I actually find it funny that the same definition gives you two very different meanings for the same word. But, the only example phrase you have tells you exactly what I meant: "His flushed look was visible evidence of his fever."
A "flushed look" is evidence of fever not proof. This is the difference between evidence and proof.

And honestly, I'm not one for conspiracy theories. That's exactly why I don't go into "how did they do it?". One thing is to say that something is true, another is to say that it is likely true.

 

Not exactly. You are correct that it's not as active as it used to be, but even in the "good old days", arguments like this over "there" were split off into side threads, so actual information can be easily found by those interested, and only the ones interested in the argument had to read through it. That also had the side-effect of concentrating the argument so people weren't constantly reiterating the same points and counterpoints... but I digress. Not every forum has to function the same way. The fandom is wide and vast, and the fans a multitude. Somewhere out there there's a place for each of us. :shrug:

I'm sure they'll appreciate the compliment.

Aye, I agree. Our amusement has little bearing on whether y'all should continue arguing. If this is what you're involved in the community for, then by all means have at thee. Don't be too distraught if you hear a snicker or three from the balcony though...

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to find some way to extricate myself from this labyrinthine thread. Can someone point me towards the door?

Spoiler

Btw, it's rigged.

 

@huguo
1. There have been other future aces, the latest ones being Sayanee and Sakura who both fail woefully at Janken. Mayuyu also fails completely at Janken so why is she part of your argument?

2. If you're argument is that management are out to push the "new generation aces" then giving the singles before and after Jurina's win doesn't do much for her momentum. The centres since Yuko's single were Mayuyu and .......Mayuyu who I assume we can agree has gotten nothing from Janken. Not seeing a pattern really holding up here.

3. Fortunate does not equal proof.

Without proving "how they did do it" you can't prove that they did it at all.

 

To be honest forum like nihongogo or h!o have the right to laugh at us... I mean quoting quantum mathematics in an idol forum?

I think some of us have way too much free time...

 

1 - If we cannot agree in placing Paruru, Jurina and Mayuyu in a different level than the others, then I don't know where we can place our common ground.

2 - Yes, and that is why the only other option was the "janken" single. Maybe you didn't notice or maybe I'm wrong but the large majority of singles (since AKB got a little famous) have been centered by either Acchan (management's ace), Yuko (election during Acchan's time and ace after that), Mayuyu (alone or with another girl), Sasshi (election) and Haruna (this one I don't get it). I believe it is easy to see a pattern here. The center is a very "permanent" position with the exception of the obvious (election and janken - not "decided" by management). Management is very careful about changing the center.

3 - point and last comment. I believe you are still missing my point. I never said and never will say that there is proof that the "janken" was "rigged". That's not my objective. Honestly, I really don't care if you believe in that or not. My initial aim, and still my current objective is to argue that there is evidence for that. Evidence that, to me, is enough to convince me that something did occur.
Don't confuse "evidence" and "proof". The conclusions are up to you and any other reader.

@gocchisama
Sorry, and what is your point... Do you believe quantum mathematics is a unworthy subject to be mentioned in a idol forum? Or do you believe that every idol fan is an idiot that cannot understand the basic of such topics?

 

I mean you don't need to go as far as that when explaining. It draws some people away from it. At this point, it's really laughable.

 

Is this an idol forum anymore?

 

You're just using semantics to muddy the waters, a typical conspiracy theorist tactic.

 

Given the lack of activity on Nihongogo I suppose they should be happy that another forum is providing some entertainment for them.

As regards Janken, as I've said I don't claim it isn't rigged, just that what has been put forward as evidence on this thread is far from convincing.

Now, can everybody get back to talking about more enjoyable stuff like the cosplay? And how tragic it was that Ishida Anna got knocked out of the competition so quickly

 

Speaking of the cosplay, I had a couple questions a few pages back that I think may have gotten lost in the shuffle.

What was Ishida Haruka's sash with 621077 on it referring to? Also what were Ishizuka Akari and Tatsuya Makiho dressed up as?

 

Just a small observation. The probability of getting the most probable result (3 Low and 2 High) considering my premisses (High Group -> 23 members; Low Group -> 47 - the most favorable assumption for the chance hypothesis) is 0,529655309 -> 52%.
Probability of getting the actual results: 0,042957683 -> 4.3%.
I wouldn't call it equal.
These are cumulative probabilities (the ones used to determine if it should be considered by chance or not).

If you prefer individual probabilities:
1 Low: 0,039128122 -> 3,9%
2 Low: 0,159914934 -> 16%
3 Low: 0,326782692 -> 32,7%
Again, very far from equal...