Event / Concert AKB48 Janken Taikai (14/09/17)

Yeah no problem, and thank you for understanding To be honest, I love Sayanee and Milky, and I especially love how their so-called rivalry is actually quite the friendship MilkySaya OTP? My hope is that on either Milky or Sayanee's solo debuts, we'll see a duet much like TWO ROSES for them. WE NEED ONE!!

But yeah the emotion thing was more about Jurina during elections, not so much Janken. As for Janken, your points are actually exactly why I think it is rigged in the format that I mentioned And yes, this is how all discussions should be!

 

Nice post Blue Sweater, I like the stats, and also revealing how previous jankens affected trends for future tournaments. Milky's throws were more spread out than I was lead to believe, and it seems previous winners like Paru and Jurina did well on what other girls were tending to throw in those years. Seems logical to me.

Although someone may misunderstand that link as talking about conspiracy theory instead of against it, so you may want to change the title slightly. Good read!

 

But it does work like that. Because each draw of a card, like each tournament, is an independent event. The odds of drawing either an ace or a king is 2/13. That is a little worse then the odds of getting a top 20 member: 20/113. Say you sit down to a poker game and someone draws the following: two, ace, king, ace, king. That's roughly the equivalent of what has happened in the tournaments (with apologies to Uchida Mayumi for implying she is a two). If you run the same t-test on the last four draws you will see that result is extremely unlikely to have occurred by chance. Would you call them a cheater because by some improbable circumstance they got a pair of aces and a pair of kings?

Nice analysis. Have you done a breakdown of the distribution of hands throughout all the tournaments? Is it roughly a third for each hand or is it skewed one way or another?

I wonder if any of the members have tried to win the tournament via data mining. Surely some of them must have a mathematician in their family.

 

Thank you I only have the hand distribution for the 4th (Jurina) and 5th (Milky) tournament. I haven't found any sources only for this data so I recorded it onto excel when I watched each tournament for the first time. I think I have videos for the second and third tournaments somewhere so when I have a bit more time, I'll record results form those events and see how the trends are. As for the fourth and the fifth ones that I can speak off, the trend is really skewed. The 4th one is 42% rock. My theories are either rock is a strong hand and the way the Japanese people go through their janken routine (saisho wa guu, janken pyon, aka. First is rock, janken pyon) might subconsciously make people stick with rick more than the other hand. As for the 5th one, it is 42% papaer, which I am sure is pretty statistically significant. I am pretty sure this is in response to Jurina's paper win last year.

At the end of the day though, data mining only helps you to have better odd of winning. Look at Sakura who played all scissors, which is the best strategy in this tournament, but she happened to run into Saho who threw a rock and ended her tournament. In a way, all the papers we saw this year is the result of 'data mining' from last year right, although at a very basic level!

Thanks for pointing out on the title. I have made the changes I can't say about Paruru because I do not have that year's data but Jurina completely lucked out on her strategy in that year's event. By throwing all paper in an environment when 42% of the players threw rock, she actually increased her chance of winning a hand by ~10% over a random play, and that is significant in this 'game of chance'.

 

While on the subject of janken, can anyone explain to me that thing I sometimes see Japanese people do beforehand where they clasp their hands together, twist them around backwards and look in the opening? I've always assumed it's to figure out what hand to play but I don't know how that would work. Anybody know?

 

ishida haruka uses that strategy and it took her to 2nd place in the first janken but it hasn't helped her since. It may be explained in one of the janken backstage videos from the 2nd tournament but I think the idea is that the light that shows through your clasped fingers will be the shape of your opponents or your next throw.

 

Thanks. I didn't realize they were looking at the light that shows through. I guess that explains why they often look up when doing it. Though I wonder how they interpret it. I've tried it and haven't seen anything that remotely resembles a janken hand.

 

SAYAMILKY DUET YAAAAS. I actually ship SayaMilky as like a sister relationship, rather than a pairing. Idk I just never can see them together like that. MaYuki needs to get together though keke the next good grade I get I will order the SayaMilky ring that's been in my cart on etsy for forever ^^

 

Your argument is wrong. A t-test must have a problem, a hypothesis, a compared metrics. Your example lacks all of them. Did you really do the math?? PM me if you want to do math

This is a pure and friendly discussion. No hard feeling. So no need to apologize

No. I don't care whether it's rigged or not. But I am disappointed with the sad fate here. FYI, a lot of what we supposedly "know" in life are just the results of some mathematical models without much stories/pictures/etc. that people here call "evidences". For example, people know that the Earth revolves around the Sun just by doing "maths" and long before anyone steps outside of the Earth to have any "evidence" about that. In other words, you guys have already believed a lot of maths' results without knowing it, just that you guys are told by someone else who read these maths rather than seeing the maths directly. Thus, I call the believing in "story/photos/speech" by a bunch of idols/managers and not believing in mathematics naive. But, well, an idol forum is not a science-appreciating place so I guess that is my mistake and I should give up. My apology.

 

I didn't want to re-address this issue again since it has run it course (this year, I'm quite sure regardless who win, we will be resuming this discussion next year as well), but since you seem to be really keen on not changing your opinion and calling other people "naive" for thinking otherwise:
1) Let make it very clear once and for all - people who have been putting down the "it's rigged" camp's "evidences" don't even think it's 100% that the event is not rigged. However, they / we don't think it's rigged for sure, either. Your math, regardless how you choose to interpret it, actually doesn't say it's "obviously" rigged and doesn't serve as conclusive evidence. At most, it *suggest* there are *possibility* of the event being rigged. That's all, and we all know that even without doing math. We don't *entirely* "believe in story/photos/speech by a bunch of idols/managers", but we don't wrongly interpret maths either, sorry.

2) There isn't any, as far as I know, theories and laws in science that based on just "because the probability of other option is low". That's why there are 3 different terms - hypothesis, theory and laws in science. "What we supposedly know in life" (to borrow your words) are theories and / or laws - with elaborated models, evidences, tested samples, etc. What you are saying is hypothesis, at best. A lot of hypothesis, even the well-known ones, were proven untrue. Since you mentioned, people didn't just conclude that the Earth revolves around the Sun because "the probability of it being wrong is low".

 

I think Paru had the same luck personally, and there would have to be some event where Jurina got lucky on the same path. When you think about it, Scissors is the least popular choice because everyone gets caught up in "rock vs. paper" usually. I'm sure Sakura was hoping for some of her luck when she continued with scissors, haha

I wonder if Mayu was referencing Paru's scissors with her entrance?

As for Paru's victory that year, she probably chose the easiest way to get knocked out by going with only scissors and ironically ended up winning, lol. I really don't think she cared to be center, especially with how she talks about it. She just couldn't avoid fate really, even her luck was bad...or good, in someone else's case.

 

ME TOO! Sayamilky are more like best friends that build each other up. I see them exactly like Jurirena, who both admit that without the other, they wouldn't be as good (or as motivated) and are really good friends because of that.

 

there is another janken match in maeshika mukanee HS, i wonder whats that all about?

 

Oh, we starting again now? Yeh the probability that it is rigged where it matters is pretty high, and unsurprising. But seems like it doesn't matter too much as most know how AKB operate and their focus on making money, and probably feel there is stuff all that they can do about it.... so just go for the show.

There are many unpleasant realities that don't make it to discussion here and best left out in the world, and at the end of the day wont matter to most.

Might be a good idea to close this thread and focus on the single to come.

 

if the video does not show watch the video here
2014 Janken Tournament's coupling song (more like Naanya's song from the look of the preview...)

 

Nice song, my type of song.
And Naanya looks stunning!

 

So we won't see ripopo's face??

 

Wow Mio is having a nice screentime

 

That would be some pretty epic trolling if that were the case.

 

Mio was definitely reminding me of Kudo Haruka in that clip. That means that for once, I'm not finding Mio incredibly annoying!

Naanya is stunning in this.

And the song is quite cute!